February 11, 2003

FORECAST DATES 2002-03 SEASON
March 11, 2003	April 10, 2003
May 12, 2003	June 11, 2003
July 11, 2003

Components used in the February Forecast
Type	Bearing trees (1,000)	Fruit per tree	Percent droppage	Fruit per box
Early-Mid	34,042	950	13	225
Navel	2,313	454	12	133
Valencia	41,682	524	21	185

Citrus production, February 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State	Production		Forecast
	2000-01	2001-02	Jan 10, 2003	Feb 11, 2003
	- - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA	128,000	128,000	113,000	113,000
California	35,500	34,000	40,000	40,000
Texas	2,000	1,530	1,500	1,500
Arizona	480	270	200	200
Total Above Varieties	165,980	163,800	154,700	154,700
Valencias:
FLORIDA	95,300	102,000	84,000	86,000
California	19,000	22,000	21,000	21,000
Texas	235	210	180	180
Arizona	420	250	250	250
Total Valencias	114,955	124,460	105,430	107,430
All Oranges:
FLORIDA	223,300	230,000	197,000	199,000
California	54,500	56,000	61,000	61,000
Texas	2,235	1,740	1,680	1,680
Arizona	900	520	450	450
Total All Oranges	280,935	288,260	260,130	262,130

GRAPEFRUIT HELD AT 40.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of total grapefruit for certified utilization (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 40.0 million boxes. The forecast categories are unchanged. All white grapefruit, including both seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 16.0 million boxes and all varieties of colored grapefruit are continued at 24.0 million boxes.   

  The January fruit size and loss (droppage from the sample trees) surveys are considered to be the benchmark of these factors for analysis with historic series. In October the projected average for white seedless grapefruit was 81 fruit per box; now the survey indicates 79 fruit per box. The initial projection of loss was nine percent, identical with the January value. The projected average fruit per box for all colored varieties was 86 and now it is 87 fruit per box. The projected loss from fruit drop was 12 percent, the same as the January value.

  Average sizes for both the white and colored fruit varieties are above the 10 season mean, whites by almost 12 percent and colored by over nine percent. Loss from droppage is slightly below average for whites and about one percentage point above for colored. The fruit surveys will be continued for another two months on the remainder of the crops, as has been done in recent years, to correlate relationships as harvest progresses.

  Estimated utilization through February 2, 2003, for both categories is ahead of the past two seasons. Indications are 29 percent of the whites for certification have been harvested and 45 percent of the colored.

EARLY TANGERINES STAY AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES

  The early tangerine crop forecast is held at 3.0 million boxes. The Fallglo variety has been completely harvested. The Sunburst variety weekly estimated certifications have decreased to only a few thousand boxes. The total of both varieties are at the forecast level and the final estimate will depend on revisions of weekly estimated utilization.

HONEY TANGERINES REDUCED TO 2.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the later maturing Honey tangerines is reduced 0.1million boxes. The final fruit size is less than the preceding month, which may have resulted from cold weather inhibiting growth on the remaining samples. Loss from fruit drop is less than the 40 percent mean. However, as of February 3, 2003, over 35 percent of the crop still remains to be certified. Last season, with a total recorded estimate of 2.25 million boxes, 39 percent of the certified crop went into processing. Condition of the crop will determine the percent shipped fresh and processed this season.

TEMPLES REMAIN AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The Temple forecast is continued at 1.4 million boxes. This is 10 percent less than the 1.55 million boxes utilized last season. If the forecast amount is realized, it will equal the second smallest crop on record, which occurred in the freeze-damaged season of 1989-90. Average fruit size showed no increase in January and loss from droppage increased. It is projected that most of the remaining Temples will be processed rapidly. Last season over 79 percent of the certified crop went for processing.

TANGELOS HELD AT 2.4 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo forecast is maintained at 2.4 million boxes. Utilization of the crop this season has been considerably better than in recent seasons. Last season, from a total recorded crop of only 2.15 million boxes, 1.5 million boxes were used for processing. In comparison, as of February 3, 2003, an estimated total of 2.2 million boxes (including the preseason allowance of 200,000 boxes) has been utilized with an estimated 1.6 million boxes used for processing. The route survey (Row Count) conducted on January 29-30, 2003, indicates sufficient remaining volume to attain the forecast.

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FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the January size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period January 13 through 28, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

  The charts below compare the relationship of the January 2003 Valencia orange and white seedless grapefruit fruit size measurements with those taken in January 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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