------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS FEBRUARY FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE February 11, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2002-03 SEASON ------------------------------------ March 11, 2003 April 10, 2003 May 12, 2003 June 11, 2003 July 11, 2003 ALL ORANGES NOW 199.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of utilization of all oranges for Florida, released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of USDA is increased two million boxes to 199.0 million. The forecast is based on objective count surveys and analysis provided by the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. The forecast is comprised of early-midseason-Navel oranges at 113.0 million boxes, unchanged from last month and Valencia oranges at 86.0 million, up two. In the previous ten seasons, the all orange February forecast has differed from final utilization by an average of 2.2 percent. Weather conditions during January were generally colder than normal in all citrus producing areas of the state. Below freezing temperatures the morning of the 24th were experienced in most areas but no significant damage or loss of fruit has been observed or reported. Weather conditions since November (above average rainfall, below normal temperatures) have been near ideal to protect fruit and trees from extreme cold temperatures. Components used in the February Forecast Bearing Type trees Fruit per Percent Fruit per (1,000) tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- Early-Mid 34,042 950 13 225 Navel 2,313 454 12 133 Valencia 41,682 524 21 185 ----------------------------------------------------- EARLY-MIDSEASONS 113.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Early-midseason-Navel oranges remains 113.0 million boxes, the same as last month and October. This forecast includes 5.5 million boxes of Navels, also unchanged. The row count survey conducted January 29-30 indicates about 87 percent of the Navel rows harvested. The survey also indicates almost 84 percent of the other early-midseason rows harvested, the highest percent since the 1995-96 season. With weekly picking decreasing at historical rates, harvest will be near complete in early March. VALENCIAS NOW 86.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Valencia oranges is increased two million boxes to 86.0 million. Fruit size and drop measurements in January indicate that fruit sizes, even with the cold weather, continue to grow and are the largest in the series dating to 1960. Droppage continues higher than average, now estimated at 21 percent for the season. The combination of these factors with the fruit population indicates the increased amount of fruit available for harvest. Limited harvest has started. Some fruit in the extreme northern producing areas experienced ice on the morning of the 24th but no loss has been reported. Citrus production, February 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Production Forecast Crop and State ---------------- -------------------------- 2000-01 2001-02 Jan 10, 2003 Feb 11, 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 113,000 113,000 California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000 Texas 2,000 1,530 1,500 1,500 Arizona 480 270 200 200 Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 154,700 154,700 Valencias: FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 84,000 86,000 California 19,000 22,000 21,000 21,000 Texas 235 210 180 180 Arizona 420 250 250 250 Total Valencias 114,955 124,460 105,430 107,430 All Oranges: FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 197,000 199,000 California 54,500 56,000 61,000 61,000 Texas 2,235 1,740 1,680 1,680 Arizona 900 520 450 450 Total All Oranges 280,935 288,260 260,130 262,130 ---------------------------------------------------------------- FCOJ CONTINUES 1.57 GALLONS The projection of FCOJ yield is continued at 1.57 gallons per box for all oranges. The projection of yield for the early-mid portion is reduced to 1.50 gallons per box from 1.52 and the Valencia portion remains unchanged at 1.67 gallons. The Maturity Test Results on page 3 show pounds of solids in the remaining early-mid oranges is declining. Valencia pounds solids continues to increase as projected. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ GRAPEFRUIT HELD AT 40.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of total grapefruit for certified utilization (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 40.0 million boxes. The forecast categories are unchanged. All white grapefruit, including both seedless and seedy varieties, remains at 16.0 million boxes and all varieties of colored grapefruit are continued at 24.0 million boxes. The January fruit size and loss (droppage from the sample trees) surveys are considered to be the benchmark of these factors for analysis with historic series. In October the projected average for white seedless grapefruit was 81 fruit per box; now the survey indicates 79 fruit per box. The initial projection of loss was nine percent, identical with the January value. The projected average fruit per box for all colored varieties was 86 and now it is 87 fruit per box. The projected loss from fruit drop was 12 percent, the same as the January value. Average sizes for both the white and colored fruit varieties are above the 10 season mean, whites by almost 12 percent and colored by over nine percent. Loss from droppage is slightly below average for whites and about one percentage point above for colored. The fruit surveys will be continued for another two months on the remainder of the crops, as has been done in recent years, to correlate relationships as harvest progresses. Estimated utilization through February 2, 2003, for both categories is ahead of the past two seasons. Indications are 29 percent of the whites for certification have been harvested and 45 percent of the colored. Components used in the February forecast Bearing Fruit Fruit Type trees per Percent per (1,000) tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- White Grapefruit 1/ 3,784 398 9 79 Colored Grapefruit 1/ 6,352 387 12 87 ----------------------------------------------------- 1/ Seedless variety only. Citrus production, February 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Production Forecast ----------------- -------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 Jan 10, 2003 Feb 11, 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 40,000 40,000 White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,000 16,000 Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 24,000 24,000 Texas 7,200 5,900 5,600 5,600 Arizona 250 160 100 100 California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600 Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 51,300 51,300 Lemons: California 22,600 19,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,800 2,800 Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,800 25,800 Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/ Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,400 2,400 K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,100 5,000 Early 3/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000 Honey 2,050 2,250 2,100 2,000 California 4/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500 Arizona 4/ 650 620 450 450 Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,050 7,950 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02; Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos. EARLY TANGERINES STAY AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES The early tangerine crop forecast is held at 3.0 million boxes. The Fallglo variety has been completely harvested. The Sunburst variety weekly estimated certifications have decreased to only a few thousand boxes. The total of both varieties are at the forecast level and the final estimate will depend on revisions of weekly estimated utilization. HONEY TANGERINES REDUCED TO 2.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of the later maturing Honey tangerines is reduced 0.1million boxes. The final fruit size is less than the preceding month, which may have resulted from cold weather inhibiting growth on the remaining samples. Loss from fruit drop is less than the 40 percent mean. However, as of February 3, 2003, over 35 percent of the crop still remains to be certified. Last season, with a total recorded estimate of 2.25 million boxes, 39 percent of the certified crop went into processing. Condition of the crop will determine the percent shipped fresh and processed this season. TEMPLES REMAIN AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES The Temple forecast is continued at 1.4 million boxes. This is 10 percent less than the 1.55 million boxes utilized last season. If the forecast amount is realized, it will equal the second smallest crop on record, which occurred in the freeze-damaged season of 1989-90. Average fruit size showed no increase in January and loss from droppage increased. It is projected that most of the remaining Temples will be processed rapidly. Last season over 79 percent of the certified crop went for processing. TANGELOS HELD AT 2.4 MILLION BOXES The tangelo forecast is maintained at 2.4 million boxes. Utilization of the crop this season has been considerably better than in recent seasons. Last season, from a total recorded crop of only 2.15 million boxes, 1.5 million boxes were used for processing. In comparison, as of February 3, 2003, an estimated total of 2.2 million boxes (including the preseason allowance of 200,000 boxes) has been utilized with an estimated 1.6 million boxes used for processing. The route survey (Row Count) conducted on January 29-30, 2003, indicates sufficient remaining volume to attain the forecast. 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons Fruit type Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids (No. groves) (Brix) per box per box test date 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. ORANGES: Early (26-16) Sep 1 1.45 1.42 9.50 9.43 6.81 6.78 44.17 41.83 4.20 3.95 Oct 1 1.01 0.93 9.66 9.77 9.87 10.72 48.71 50.05 4.70 4.89 Nov 1 0.83 0.74 10.42 10.45 12.92 14.62 52.91 51.68 5.51 5.39 Dec 1 NA 0.75 NA 11.18 NA 15.18 NA 48.66 NA 5.44 Jan 1 0.69 0.69 11.77 11.54 17.45 16.80 51.16 51.44 6.02 5.94 Feb 1 0.66 0.72 12.17 12.14 18.74 16.98 50.96 49.34 6.21 6.00 Midseason (20-10) Sep 1 1.66 1.32 9.46 8.88 5.80 6.88 44.10 46.63 4.17 4.13 Oct 1 1.23 0.96 9.77 9.33 8.12 10.00 50.83 53.88 4.96 5.02 Nov 1 1.02 0.76 10.73 10.29 10.71 13.95 52.79 55.01 5.66 5.65 Dec 1 NA 0.71 NA 11.02 NA 15.95 NA 52.58 NA 5.80 Jan 1 0.82 0.71 12.61 11.47 15.69 16.70 52.02 51.97 6.56 5.98 Feb 1 0.78 0.73 13.35 11.99 17.42 17.07 52.26 49.62 6.99 5.96 Late (150-150) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.19 2.04 8.87 8.70 4.11 4.34 47.72 48.96 4.23 4.26 Nov 1 1.76 1.64 9.20 9.23 5.31 5.72 52.00 52.37 4.79 4.83 Dec 1 NA 1.42 NA 10.05 NA 7.19 NA 53.19 NA 5.35 Jan 1 1.25 1.24 10.96 10.85 8.89 8.86 55.38 54.28 6.07 5.89 Feb 1 1.12 1.19 11.71 11.48 10.62 9.73 55.50 54.56 6.50 6.27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used. Maturity test averages by areas, February 1, 2003 Unfinished Solids Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice per per sampled (Brix) box box ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds ORANGES: Early Indian River Dist. 0 -- -- -- -- -- Other Areas 16 0.72 12.14 16.98 49.34 6.00 Midseason Indian River Dist. 2 0.97 14.10 14.63 51.64 7.27 Other Areas 8 0.67 11.46 17.68 49.12 5.64 Late Indian River Dist. 28 1.24 11.82 9.64 54.96 6.50 Other Areas 122 1.18 11.41 9.75 54.47 6.21 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions from the January size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period January 13 through 28, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons. FLORIDA CITRUS: Size frequency distributions from January measurements Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 - - - Percent - - - Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 2.8 5.7 15.7 80 16.0 22.5 34.4 100 40.0 39.4 36.5 125 31.8 23.3 11.4 163 and smaller 9.4 9.1 2.0 White seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 16.0 13.1 39.1 36 21.4 17.6 24.3 40 22.1 22.1 18.1 48 17.9 20.3 9.8 56 10.3 12.6 4.4 63 and smaller 12.3 14.3 4.3 Colored seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 6.8 5.7 23.4 36 14.9 13.1 22.7 40 24.5 20.7 23.5 48 22.9 23.5 14.2 56 13.7 14.7 7.6 63 and smaller 17.2 22.3 8.6 Temples: 80 and larger 31.4 27.0 63.5 100 40.0 40.5 28.5 120 23.0 23.9 6.5 156 and smaller 5.6 8.6 1.5 Honey tangerines: 80 and larger 25.9 44.7 26.3 100 36.5 29.1 33.7 120 22.2 20.3 25.8 176 8.0 3.9 7.1 210 and smaller 7.4 2.0 7.1 The charts below compare the relationship of the January 2003 Valencia orange and white seedless grapefruit fruit size measurements with those taken in January 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value. [chart: Valencia orange size frequency] [chart: White seedless grapefruit size frequency] 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------