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CITRUS
MARCH FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE

March 11, 2003

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service   |  1222 Woodward Street   |  Orlando, Florida 32803   |  407 / 648-6013


FORECAST DATES 2002-03 SEASON
April 10, 2003 May 12, 2003
June 11, 2003 July 11, 2003


ALL ORANGES HELD AT 199.0 MILLION BOXES

  The Florida forecast of all oranges for recorded utilization, released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the USDA, is continued at 199.0 million boxes. The forecast is made up of early and midseason oranges (including Navels) at 113.0 million boxes and late type (Valencia) oranges at 86.0 million boxes. In the past 10 seasons, the March all orange forecast has differed from the final recorded utilization by an average of 1.5 percent, with only three seasons above the final.

  The weather conditions for Florida citrus in February were generally beneficial to the current crop. There were no freezing temperatures in major producing areas and the average temperatures were moderate. However, average rainfall was below normal and required caretakers to make extensive use of irrigation.


Components used in the March Forecast
Type Bearing
trees
(1,000)		 Fruit per
tree		 Percent
droppage		 Fruit per
box

Early-Mid
34,042
950
13
225
Navel 2,313 454 12 133
Valencia 41,682 524 20 190


EARLY-MIDSEASON ORANGES STAY AT 113.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the early and midseason oranges is carried forward at 113.0 million boxes. Volume utilization of this fruit is over and the declining estimated recorded utilization indicates that less than 2 percent of the forecast was left for harvest as of March 3, 2003. The Row Count conducted on February 26-27 indicated about that amount of harvestable rows remaining. There may be some revisions of use when the last several weeks become final. The Navel portion remains at 5.5 million boxes. The Row Count survey showed over 5 percent of the rows remaining, however complete harvest may not occur.


VALENCIAS REMAIN AT 86.0 MILLION BOXES

  The late type (Valencia) orange forecast at 86.0 million boxes is maintained. The average fruit size from the February survey decreased slightly from the level attained in January and lowered the projection slightly . However, the average fruit size is still the largest of the record that goes back to 1960.

  The average loss from fruit droppage from sample trees in February increased at a lesser rate than the preceding months, but the level is still at the greatest loss factor in the preceding 10 seasons.


Citrus production, March 1, 2003
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production Forecast
2000-01 2001-02 Feb 11, 2003 Mar 11, 2003
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 113,000 113,000
California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000
Texas 2,000 1,530 1,500 1,500
Arizona 480 270 200 200
Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 154,700 154,700
Valencias:
FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 86,000 86,000
California 19,000 22,000 21,000 22,000
Texas 235 210 180 180
Arizona 420 250 250 250
Total Valencias 114,955 124,460 107,430 108,430
All Oranges:
FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 199,000 199,000
California 54,500 56,000 61,000 62,000
Texas 2,235 1,740 1,680 1,680
Arizona 900 520 450 450
Total All Oranges 280,935 288,260 262,130 263,130


FCOJ YIELD NOW 1.55 GALLONS

  The all orange FCOJ yield projection is lowered from 1.57 to 1.55 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. This level is lower than the past two seasons when the all orange yield was 1.58 gallons per box. The early and midseason portion is currently at 1.491993 as of March 7 which was the last report from the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The projection of yield for Valencia oranges going into FCOJ has also been lowered to 1.65 gallons per box from 1.67.

  These projections of yield assume the processing relationships of the past several seasons will be similar this year. Weather and harvest patterns can also have an influence on the final yields. The Maturity Test Results are on page 3 of this report for the remaining Valencias.


GRAPEFRUIT REMAINS AT 40.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of all grapefruit for certified utilization (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and local sales) is continued at 40.0 million boxes. Category breakdown remains unchanged at 16.0 million boxes of white varieties and 24.0 million colored. This forecast is 5 percent below the initial October forecast which was lowered to the current level in the December report.

  February measurements of fruit size indicate the advanced harvest of both white and colored categories. More samples than usual had been harvested before the survey period. Average fruit sizes did not increase, indicating harvest of the most desirable sizes for fresh utilization. Droppage rates on the remaining samples continued to increase, although only slightly on white seedless but heavier on colored varieties. Size measurements in January (considered final month for expansion purposes) averaged higher than all but one season in the historical ten season series for white seedless and all but two for colored. Both categories were larger in the summer months than the ten season averages but cooler winter weather moderated growth rates. Droppage rates for whites were average in the summer months and remained so for the season but colored, which started higher in the summer and fall months and continued high, ended the season about one percent above the average.

  Estimated utilization to March 1 for fresh use is ahead of the previous two seasons for colored varieties but behind for white. Exports have been strong this season while domestic shipments have lagged. Utilization by processors has been above one million boxes weekly the entire month of February and consists of packinghouse eliminations and direct to processor fruit.

  The route survey (Row Count) conducted February 26-27 indicates over 50 percent of the white grapefruit and over 60 percent of the colored grapefruit rows harvested. These figures are higher than those of the previous 6 seasons and fully support the forecast.


Components used in the March forecast
Type Bearing
trees
(1,000)		 Fruit per
tree		 Percent
droppage		 Fruit per
box
     
White Grapefruit 1/ 3,784 398 9 79
Colored Grapefruit 6,352 387 12 87
1/ Seedless variety only.


Citrus production, March 1, 2003
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production Forecast
2000-01 2001-02 Feb 11, 2003 Mar 11, 2003
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
   FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 40,000 40,000
       White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,000 16,000
       Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 24,000 24,000
  Texas 7,200 5,900 5,600 5,600
  Arizona 250 160 100 100
  California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600
Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 51,300 51,300
Lemons:
  California 22,600 19,000 23,000 23,000
  Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,800 2,800
Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,800 25,800
Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/
Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,400 1,400
Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,400 2,400
K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/
Tangerines:
   FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,000 5,000
    Early 3/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000
    Honey 2,050 2,250 2,000 2,000
  California 4/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500
  Arizona 4/ 650 620 450 450
Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 7,950 7,950
1/ Includes seedy.
2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment.
3/ No forecast.
4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only.
5/ Includes tangelos.


EARLY TANGERINES STAY AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of early season tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties only) is continued at 3.0 million boxes. Harvest is virtually complete with limited amounts being delivered to processors. This season's harvest is 31 percent less than the 4.35 million boxes harvested in the previous season which included only about 100,000 boxes of the Robinson and Dancy varieties.


HONEY TANGERINES CONTINUED AT 2.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of late season Honey tangerines is continued at 2.0 million boxes. Fruit sizes remain near the ten season average after having started the season larger than any size in the 10 year series. Droppage rates started the season below average and continue slightly below the average which is about 40 percent. Fresh shipments have been advanced as packers harvested in anticipation of cold weather in January and remain above the level of the previous two seasons.


TEMPLES REMAIN AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The Temple forecast is continued at 1.4 million boxes. This is 10 percent less than the 1.55 million boxes utilized last season. If the forecast is realized, it will equal the second smallest crop on record which occurred in the freeze damaged 1989-90 season. Average Temple fruit size is larger than any in the ten season series. Fruit droppage is above average although following a normal pattern. Fresh shipments have declined to the lowest levels on record. Most of the remaining crops will be harvested for processing use.


TANGELOS HELD AT 2.4 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo forecast is continued at 2.4 million boxes, the same as the initial forecast in October. Utilization of tangelos has been more complete this season with the most fruit processed since the 1998-99 season. Fresh shipments however, continue to decline. The route survey indicates some rows having fruit available for harvest. Weekly processing movement has continued but is declining as warm weather affects the usability of the remaining crops.

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample
groves, 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons
Fruit type
(No. groves)
test date 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished juice
per box 		Solids
per box
2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03
 
 		 Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
ORANGES:
  Late (144-142)
    Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
    Oct 1 2.20 2.05 8.86 8.69 4.10 4.32 47.72 48.92 4.23 4.25
    Nov 1 1.76 1.65 9.20 9.22 5.29 5.68 51.91 52.39 4.78 4.83
    Dec 1 NA 1.43 NA 10.05 NA 7.14 NA 53.23 NA 5.35
    Jan 1 1.26 1.24 10.96 10.85 8.87 8.84 55.42 54.27 6.08 5.89
    Feb 1 1.12 1.20 11.70 11.48 10.59 9.69 55.51 54.54 6.50 6.26
    Mar 1 1.06 1.08 12.33 12.24 11.84 11.52 54.91 53.22 6.78 6.51
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.


Maturity test averages by areas, March 1, 2003
Fruit type Groves
sampled 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished
juice per box 		Solids
per box
  Number Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
ORANGES:
  Late
    Indian River Dist. 27 1.13 12.73 11.36 53.47 6.81
    Other Areas 115 1.06 12.12 11.56 53.16 6.44

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the February size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period February 13 through 28, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from
February measurements
Type of fruit and size
in 4/5-bushel containers		 2001 2002 2003
  - - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
     64 and larger 3 .4 6 .9 14 .7
     80 18 .4 23 .7 33 .9
    100 40 .3 37 .8 36 .4
    125 29 .5 23 .0 12 .7
    163 and smaller 8 .4 8 .6 2 .3
White seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 20 .3 16 .2 34 .9
     36 21 .4 18 .7 24 .7
     40 22 .0 21 .9 17 .6
     48 17 .5 20 .5 11 .4
     56 8 .9 10 .9 5 .2
     63 and smaller 9 .9 11 .8 6 .2
Colored seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 7 .8 7 .9 25 .0
     36 14 .8 14 .9 22 .8
     40 24 .9 21 .5 20 .5
     48 22 .7 21 .7 14 .6
     56 12 .8 13 .3 7 .7
     63 and smaller 17 .0 20 .7 9 .4


  The chart below compares the relationship of the February 2003 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in February 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

chart: Valencia size frequency


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