CITRUS
APRIL FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE
LIME UTILIZATION

ALL ORANGES NOW 198.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of all oranges for Florida is adjusted downward by 1.0 million boxes to 198.0 million boxes in this monthly crop report released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the USDA. The reduction is in the early-midseason-Navel category where harvest is complete. In the past ten seasons, the April forecast has differed from actual utilization by an average of 1.1 percent.

  Weather conditions during March were near-ideal for citrus. Cool nights and warm days in combination with adequate soil moisture and frequent rainfall produced one of the largest, fullest blooms in many years. The bloom period extended from the first of the month to about the third week. Trees in most groves are in excellent condition to enter the historically dry spring months.

EARLY-MIDSEASON ORANGES NOW 112.0 MILLION BOXES

  The early-midseason-Navel forecast is adjusted downward to 112.0 million boxes from 113.0 million boxes which was initially forecast in October 2002. Harvest is complete with 111.7 million boxes estimated to have been utilized through the first of April. The Navel portion forecast is reduced 0.1 million boxes to 5.4 million. The forecast for Navels had also remained unchanged from October.   This is the lowest amount of total early-midseason-Navel oranges harvested since the 107.3 million boxes in the 1993-94 season. Average fruit per tree is the lowest since the 1998-99 season when utilization also totaled 112.0 million boxes. Average fruit sizes are the largest since the 1994-95 season.

VALENCIAS REMAIN AT 86.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Valencia oranges is continued at 86.0 million boxes. Average fruit size which actually declined slightly in February surveys, increased in the March surveys and continues to be the largest fruit in the series back to 1960. Droppage rates continued as projected and are above the ten season average.

  The monthly Row Count survey shows about 27 percent of the rows harvested, about five percentage points above the average for this time of the season. This survey, in conjunction with the all orange indications, supports the current Valencia forecast.

FCOJ YIELD HELD AT 1.55 GALLONS

  The projected yield for all oranges going into FCOJ is unchanged from last month at 1.55 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. The early and midseason portion is final at 1.491993 gallons as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association on Report No. 22. The projected yield for Valencia oranges remains at 1.65 gallons per box. Maturity Test Results are shown on page 3 of this report.

LIME UTILIZATION

  No estimates of utilization were made for the 2002-03 season. See page 4 for details.

  The total grapefruit forecast is continued at 40.0 million boxes (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and other use). If realized, the forecast indicates a total grapefruit crop for recorded utilization that will be near the smallest in over 30 seasons. The forecast of white varieties, including seedy, is continued at 16.0 million boxes, 15 percent less than last season and the smallest combined white grapefruit crop on record. Production of colored grapefruit trended upward until the late 1990s except for freeze seasons. This forecast of colored varieties, at 24.0 million boxes, indicates the smallest crop since 1991-92 and is 14 percent below last season's production and 25 percent below the record 31.9 million boxes of 1999-00.

  March was the last month of fruit size and loss survey for the remaining sample groves. The January survey is considered the “final” indicator for the season, when the loss of samples has been minimal. For the reduced sample size, the relationships generally followed the historic patterns for this period of the season, with little change in the monthly fruit size but more increase in loss from droppage than most seasons.

  The route survey (Row Count) conducted on March 26-27, 2003, indicates that the season is more advanced by the number of tree rows harvested along the survey routes compared to the ten season series for colored grapefruit and all but two seasons for the white seedless grapefruit. Analysis of the remaining rows and historic productivity at the current harvest level is the primary indicator for this forecast.

  Estimated certifications through March 30, 2003, as published by CAC Report No. 25 show 15.9 percent (2.5 million boxes) of whites remaining and 16.7 percent (3.8 million boxes) of colored remaining to reach the level of the forecast. Both amounts are considerably less than the amount remaining for preceding seasons.

Final Month Components
Type	Bearing trees (1,000)	Fruit per tree	Percent droppage	Fruit per box
White Grapefruit 1/	3,784	398	9	79
Colored Grapefruit	6,352	387	12	87
1/ Seedless variety only.

Citrus production, April 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State	Production		Forecast
	2000-01	2001-02	Mar 11, 2003	Apr 10, 2003
	- - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
FLORIDA-All	46,000	46,700	40,000	40,000
White 1/	18,700	18,900	16,000	16,000
Colored	2/ 27,300	27,800	24,000	24,000
Texas	7,200	5,900	5,600	5,500
Arizona	250	160	100	100
California	6,300	6,000	5,600	5,600
Total Grapefruit	59,750	58,760	51,300	51,200
Lemons:
California	22,600	19,000	23,000	23,000
Arizona	3,600	2,800	2,800	2,900
Total Lemons	26,200	21,800	25,800	25,900
Limes: Florida	250	150	3/	3/
Temples: Florida	1,250	1,550	1,400	1,300
Tangelos: Florida	2,100	2,150	2,400	2,350
K-Early: Florida	40	30	3/	3/
Tangerines:
FLORIDA-All	5,600	6,600	5,000	5,200
Early 3/	3,550	4,350	3,000	3,000
Honey	2,050	2,250	2,000	2,200
California 4/	2,200	2,200	2,500	2,500
Arizona 4/	650	620	450	400
Total Tangerines	8,450	9,420	7,950	8,100
1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos.

EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES

  The final 2002-03 season estimate for recorded utilization of the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is 3.0 million boxes. Production for the previous seasons includes Robinson and Dancy varieties but forecasting was discontinued this season following declassification by the Florida Citrus Commission. Total early tangerines are 31 percent less than the 4.35 million boxes recorded last season which included about 100,000 boxes of the other two varieties. It is estimated that the Fallglo level of production is similar to last season but the Sunburst is only about 65 percent of last season, primarily because of the 37 percent decrease in the average fruit per tree.

HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.2 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Honey tangerines is raised 0.2 million boxes. In February, a reduction was made to 2.0 million boxes when it appeared that the cold weather had affected the crops. However, the route survey at the end of March indicated that about 25 percent of the rows had some amounts of harvestable fruit. Weekly utilizations are estimated to be maintaining a relatively constant level and only 113,000 boxes were shown remaining as of March 31, 2003. If this forecast is realized, the crop will be 21 percent less than the record 2.8 million boxes of the 1979-80 season.

TEMPLES NOW 1.3 MILLION BOXES

  The Temple forecast is lowered 0.1 million boxes to 1.3 million boxes. Harvest is about over, with weekly utilization declining rapidly. Although the March route survey indicates sufficient rows remaining to attain the preceding forecast, historic analysis along with the weekly utilization indicates the reduction. At 1.3 million boxes, this would be the second lowest utilization in over 50 years. Production in 2000-01 was only 1.25 million boxes.

TANGELOS FINAL AT 2.35 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo crop is final at 2.35 million boxes, including 0.2 million boxes of gift fruit and other use. The initial October 2002 forecast that has been maintained until now was 2.4 million boxes. Utilization is more than the preceding three seasons but less than any other since 1968-69. The March Row Count indicates about four percent of the rows remaining but harvest has not been complete in recent seasons.

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons
Fruit type (No. groves) test date	Acid		Solids (Brix)		Ratio		Unfinished juice per box		Solids per box
	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03
	Percent		Percent				Pounds		Pounds
	Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
ORANGES:
Late (118-115)
Sep 1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Oct 1	2.22	2.08	8.90	8.70	4.07	4.25	47.67	49.03	4.24	4.27
Nov 1	1.79	1.67	9.25	9.21	5.23	5.59	51.80	52.33	4.80	4.82
Dec 1	NA	1.45	NA	10.06	NA	7.06	NA	53.02	NA	5.33
Jan 1	1.28	1.25	10.98	10.85	8.75	8.76	55.41	54.24	6.09	5.89
Feb 1	1.14	1.21	11.74	11.45	10.45	9.56	55.41	54.39	6.51	6.23
Mar 1	1.08	1.10	12.41	12.27	11.70	11.35	54.98	53.01	6.83	6.50
Apr 1	0.92	0.89	12.76	12.38	14.13	14.03	55.98	53.68	7.15	6.65

NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.

Maturity test averages by areas, April 1, 2003
Fruit type	Groves sampled	Acid	Solids (Brix)	Ratio	Unfinished juice per box	Solids per box
	Number	Percent	Percent		Pounds	Pounds
ORANGES:
Late
Indian River Dist.	22	0.92	12.99	14.30	54.39	7.09
Other Areas	93	0.89	12.23	13.97	53.51	6.55

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the March size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period March 13 through 24, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Size frequency distributions from March measurements
Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers	2001	2002	2003
	- - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
64 and larger	6.2	8.5	19.8
80	22.8	24.3	36.9
100	40.5	36.6	32.4
125	23.9	21.6	9.2
163 and smaller	6.6	9.0	1.7

  The chart below compares the relationship of the March 2003 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in March 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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2002-03 LIME UTILIZATION

  The introduction of citrus canker into the lime producing area resulted in the destruction of many lime trees. Bearing acreage in December was estimated at less than 400 acres with most of this in Miami-Dade County. The Lime Administrative Committee has been discontinued, eliminating inspection and certification of limes. Consequently, there is no estimate of utilization for the 2002-03 lime season and there will be no more forecasts.

FLORIDA LIMES: Utilization in bushels, 1993-94 through 2002-03 season
Season	Fresh use			Sold for processing	Total production
	Certified shipments	Local sales	Total fresh
	Bushels
1993-94	228,500	11,500	240,000	80,000	320,000
1994-95	289,300	14,700	304,000	64,000	368,000
1995-96	371,400	12,600	384,000	96,000	480,000
1996-97	398,300	9,700	408,000	104,000	512,000
1997-98	510,400	17,600	528,000	176,000	704,000
1998-99	645,400	10,600	656,000	144,000	800,000
1999-00	774,200	25,800	800,000	160,000	960,000
2000-01	344,000	8,000	352,000	48,000	400,000
2001-02	195,600	4,400	200,000	40,000	240,000
2002-03	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

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