The early-midseason-Navel forecast is final at 112.0 million boxes. This is 1.0 million boxes less than the initial forecast in October 2002. The estimate of final utilization includes an allowance for unrecorded movement, including some gift fruit and fresh juice. The Navel portion is also final at 5.4 million boxes.

  This is the lowest amount of total early-midseason-Navel oranges harvested since the 107.3 million boxes in the 1993-94 season. Average fruit per tree is the lowest since the 1998-99 season when utilization also totaled 112.0 million boxes. Average fruit sizes are the largest since the 1994-95 season.

VALENCIAS INCREASED 2.0 MILLION BOXES

  The late type orange (Valencia) forecast is increased to 88.0 million boxes. The initial October forecast at 84.0 million boxes was increased in February because of the record large average fruit sizes. The latest survey indicates this record growth continuing. These monthly records go back to the 1960-61 season.

  The route survey (Row Count) conducted on April 30-May 1, 2003 shows that 64 percent of the Valencia survey rows have been harvested. The forecast indication based on the Row Count survey and estimated utilization to date strongly supports the 2 million box increase.

  The all orange FCOJ yield, held since March at 1.55, is lowered to 1.53 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. In the Florida Citrus Processors Association Report No. 22, the early and midseason portion is final at 1.491993 gallons per box which is lower than five of the six previous seasons. The projected yield for the late season Valencias is lowered to 1.58 gallons per box from 1.65 last month.

  The maturity test results on page three show the pounds solids per box for Valencia oranges remaining to be picked at 6.62. This is only the third time since the mid-1980s that the pounds solids per box was below 7.0 at the first of May.

  The forecast of utilization of all grapefruit is decreased 2.5 percent from 40.0 million boxes to 39.0 million. This is only the second change in the forecast this season. The initial forecast of 42.0 million boxes in October was reduced to 40.0 million in the December report. If realized, this will be the smallest utilization amount since the 1989-90 season which recorded 35.7 million boxes.

  Changes occurred in both components of the grapefruit forecast. Even though the white category is increased from 16.0 million boxes to 16.5 million, this forecast is 13 percent less than last season's production and 10 percent less than the smallest crop of 18.35 million in 1998-99. The colored varieties portion is decreased from 24.0 million boxes to 22.5 million. Production of colored grapefruit trended upward until the late 1990's except for freeze seasons. This forecast at 22.5 million boxes, signifies the smallest crop since the 1991-92 season and is 19 percent below last season's production and almost 30 percent less than the record 31.9 million boxes of the 1999-00 season.

  Weekly harvest and fresh shipments have declined as the season has progressed rapidly. The route survey (Row Count), conducted April 30-May 1, indicated about eight percent of the white seedless grapefruit rows remaining for harvest. Estimated utilization is over 15.9 million boxes with the latest weekly movement at less than 300,000 boxes.

  The route survey indicates only about four percent of the colored rows remaining for harvest. Estimated utilization to date is slightly over 22.1 million boxes. With the latestweekly harvest at about 200,000 boxes, the lowering of this forecast was indicated. Final utilization of colored grapefruit depends on the usability of the remaining crops.

EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES

  The final estimate of utilization for the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst) is 3.0 million boxes. Production for the previous seasons includes Robinson and Dancy varieties but forecasting was discontinued this season following declassification by the Florida Citrus Commission.

  This season's production is 31 percent less than the 4.35 million boxes recorded last season. It is estimated that the Fallglo level of production is similar to last season but the Sunburst is only about 65 percent of last season, primarily because of the 37 percent decrease in average fruit per tree.

HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.4 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the late season Honey tangerine variety is increased 200,000 boxes to 2.4 million. It had appeared that this variety had been adversely affected by cold weather in late January, but later season indications and utilization to date proved that to be untrue.

   The Row Count survey indicates about six percent of the rows still available for harvest. The latest estimate of weekly harvest is 66,000 boxes with fresh shipments still strong.

TEMPLES FINAL AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES

  Temple harvest is complete at 1.3 million boxes. The Row Count survey indicates near 100 percent harvest although some trees have a usable quantity of late bloom remaining. This final utilization of 1.3 million boxes is the second lowest in over 50 years. The 2000-01 production of 1.25 million boxes was the lowest.

TANGELOS FINAL AT 2.35 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo harvest is final at 2.35 million boxes, including an allowance for gift fruit and local sales. Utilization is more than the preceding three seasons but less than any other since 1968-69. Harvest was near complete this season with the Row Count survey showing very few rows unharvested.

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons
Fruit type (No. groves) test date	Acid		Solids (Brix)		Ratio		Unfinished juice per box		Solids per box
	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03	2001-02	2002-03
	Percent		Percent				Pounds		Pounds
	Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
ORANGES:
Late (59-59)
Sep 1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Oct 1	2.25	2.09	8.93	8.72	4.03	4.24	47.61	48.72	4.25	4.25
Nov 1	1.79	1.69	9.29	9.18	5.25	5.53	51.54	51.92	4.79	4.77
Dec 1	NA	1.48	NA	10.07	NA	6.95	NA	52.85	NA	5.32
Jan 1	1.27	1.28	11.08	10.81	8.86	8.55	55.86	54.53	6.20	5.90
Feb 1	1.15	1.23	11.81	11.41	10.48	9.37	55.96	53.71	6.61	6.14
Mar 1	1.10	1.13	12.67	12.28	11.67	11.07	55.76	52.38	7.07	6.44
Apr 1	0.92	0.90	12.85	12.40	14.17	13.93	56.45	53.47	7.25	6.65
May 1	0.79	0.79	13.27	12.49	17.20	16.02	56.01	52.91	7.44	6.62
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.

Maturity test averages by areas, May 1, 2003
Fruit type	Groves sampled	Acid	Solids (Brix)	Ratio	Unfinished juice per box	Solids per box
	Number	Percent	Percent		Pounds	Pounds
ORANGES:
Late
Indian River Dist.	14	0.82	13.10	16.24	54.26	7.13
Other Areas	45	0.78	12.30	15.94	52.50	6.47

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the April size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period April 17 through 29, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Size frequency distributions from April measurements
Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers	2001	2002	2003
	- - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
64 and larger	8.1	10.1	27.4
80	24.3	23.8	34.8
100	39.6	33.8	27.6
125	21.2	22.4	8.4
163 and smaller	6 .8	9 .9	1 .8

  The chart below compares the relationship of the April 2003 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in April 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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