------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS MAY FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE May 12, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2002-03 SEASON ----------------------------- June 11, 2003 July 11, 2003 ALL ORANGES NOW AT 200.0 MILLION BOXES The all orange forecast for Florida is increased 2.0 million boxes to 200.0 million boxes, as reported today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board. The forecast is comprised of the early and midseason varieties (including Navels), which are final at 112.0 million boxes, and the late type (Valencia) oranges projected at 88.0 million boxes. If realized, this amount will be the smallest total Florida crop since the 186.0 million boxes recorded in the 1998-99 season and the second smallest crop since the 174.4 million boxes in 1993-94. The largest total crop was 244.0 million boxes in 1997-98. Weather conditions during April have been generally dry with above normal temperatures for this time of year. While there has been variable rainfall, irrigation has been in constant use to offset tree stress. Caretakers continue to be active in diseased tree removal and extensive resetting along with the normal spring procedures, Final Month Components Bearing Type trees Fruit per Percent Fruit per (1,000) tree droppage box Early-Mid 34,042 950 13 225 Navel 2,313 454 12 133 Valencia 41,682 524 20 181 EARLY-MIDSEASON ORANGES FINAL AT 112.0 MILLION BOXES The early-midseason-Navel forecast is final at 112.0 million boxes. This is 1.0 million boxes less than the initial forecast in October 2002. The estimate of final utilization includes an allowance for unrecorded movement, including some gift fruit and fresh juice. The Navel portion is also final at 5.4 million boxes. This is the lowest amount of total early-midseason-Navel oranges harvested since the 107.3 million boxes in the 1993-94 season. Average fruit per tree is the lowest since the 1998-99 season when utilization also totaled 112.0 million boxes. Average fruit sizes are the largest since the 1994-95 season. VALENCIAS INCREASED 2.0 MILLION BOXES The late type orange (Valencia) forecast is increased to 88.0 million boxes. The initial October forecast at 84.0 million boxes was increased in February because of the record large average fruit sizes. The latest survey indicates this record growth continuing. These monthly records go back to the 1960-61 season. The route survey (Row Count) conducted on April 30-May 1, 2003 shows that 64 percent of the Valencia survey rows have been harvested. The forecast indication based on the Row Count survey and estimated utilization to date strongly supports the 2 million box increase. Citrus production, May 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Crop and Production Forecast State 2000-01 2001-02 Apr 10, 2003 May 12, 2003 - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 112,000 112,000 California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000 Texas 2,000 1,530 1,400 1,400 Arizona 480 270 200 200 Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 153,600 153,600 Valencias: FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 86,000 88,000 California 19,000 1/ 20,500 22,000 22,000 Texas 235 210 180 180 Arizona 420 250 200 200 Total Valencias 114,955 122,960 108,380 110,380 All Oranges: FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 198,000 200,000 California 54,500 54,500 62,000 62,000 Texas 2,235 1,740 1,580 1,580 Arizona 900 520 400 400 Total All Oranges 280,935 286,760 261,980 263,980 1/ Revised. FCOJ YIELD NOW 1.53 GALLONS The all orange FCOJ yield, held since March at 1.55, is lowered to 1.53 gallons per box of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate. In the Florida Citrus Processors Association Report No. 22, the early and midseason portion is final at 1.491993 gallons per box which is lower than five of the six previous seasons. The projected yield for the late season Valencias is lowered to 1.58 gallons per box from 1.65 last month. The maturity test results on page three show the pounds solids per box for Valencia oranges remaining to be picked at 6.62. This is only the third time since the mid-1980s that the pounds solids per box was below 7.0 at the first of May. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ GRAPEFRUIT NOW 39.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of utilization of all grapefruit is decreased 2.5 percent from 40.0 million boxes to 39.0 million. This is only the second change in the forecast this season. The initial forecast of 42.0 million boxes in October was reduced to 40.0 million in the December report. If realized, this will be the smallest utilization amount since the 1989-90 season which recorded 35.7 million boxes. Changes occurred in both components of the grapefruit forecast. Even though the white category is increased from 16.0 million boxes to 16.5 million, this forecast is 13 percent less than last season's production and 10 percent less than the smallest crop of 18.35 million in 1998-99. The colored varieties portion is decreased from 24.0 million boxes to 22.5 million. Production of colored grapefruit trended upward until the late 1990's except for freeze seasons. This forecast at 22.5 million boxes, signifies the smallest crop since the 1991-92 season and is 19 percent below last season's production and almost 30 percent less than the record 31.9 million boxes of the 1999-00 season. Weekly harvest and fresh shipments have declined as the season has progressed rapidly. The route survey (Row Count), conducted April 30-May 1, indicated about eight percent of the white seedless grapefruit rows remaining for harvest. Estimated utilization is over 15.9 million boxes with the latest weekly movement at less than 300,000 boxes. The route survey indicates only about four percent of the colored rows remaining for harvest. Estimated utilization to date is slightly over 22.1 million boxes. With the latestweekly harvest at about 200,000 boxes, the lowering of this forecast was indicated. Final utilization of colored grapefruit depends on the usability of the remaining crops. Final Month Components Bearing Type trees Fruit per Percent Fruit per (1,000) tree droppage box White Grapefruit 1/ 3,784 398 9 79 Colored Grapefruit 6,352 387 12 87 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Seedless variety only. Citrus production,May 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Crop and Production Forecast State 2000-01 2001-02 Apr 10, 2003 May 12, 2003 - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 40,000 39,000 White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,000 16,500 Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 24,000 22,500 Texas 7,200 5,900 5,500 5,500 Arizona 250 160 100 100 California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600 Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 51,200 50,200 Lemons: California 22,600 19,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,900 2,900 Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,900 25,900 Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/ Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,300 1,300 Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,350 2,350 K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,200 5,400 Early 3/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000 Honey 2,050 2,250 2,200 2,400 California 4/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500 Arizona 4/ 650 620 400 400 Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,100 8,300 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos. EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.0 MILLION BOXES The final estimate of utilization for the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst) is 3.0 million boxes. Production for the previous seasons includes Robinson and Dancy varieties but forecasting was discontinued this season following declassification by the Florida Citrus Commission. This season's production is 31 percent less than the 4.35 million boxes recorded last season. It is estimated that the Fallglo level of production is similar to last season but the Sunburst is only about 65 percent of last season, primarily because of the 37 percent decrease in average fruit per tree. HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.4 MILLION BOXES The forecast of the late season Honey tangerine variety is increased 200,000 boxes to 2.4 million. It had appeared that this variety had been adversely affected by cold weather in late January, but later season indications and utilization to date proved that to be untrue. The Row Count survey indicates about six percent of the rows still available for harvest. The latest estimate of weekly harvest is 66,000 boxes with fresh shipments still strong. TEMPLES FINAL AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES Temple harvest is complete at 1.3 million boxes. The Row Count survey indicates near 100 percent harvest although some trees have a usable quantity of late bloom remaining. This final utilization of 1.3 million boxes is the second lowest in over 50 years. The 2000-01 production of 1.25 million boxes was the lowest. TANGELOS FINAL AT 2.35 MILLION BOXES The tangelo harvest is final at 2.35 million boxes, including an allowance for gift fruit and local sales. Utilization is more than the preceding three seasons but less than any other since 1968-69. Harvest was near complete this season with the Row Count survey showing very few rows unharvested. 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons Fruit type Solids Unfinished juice Solids (No. groves) Acid (Brix) Ratio per box per box test date 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 2001-02 2002-03 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. ORANGES: Late (59-59) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.25 2.09 8.93 8.72 4.03 4.24 47.61 48.72 4.25 4.25 Nov 1 1.79 1.69 9.29 9.18 5.25 5.53 51.54 51.92 4.79 4.77 Dec 1 NA 1.48 NA 10.07 NA 6.95 NA 52.85 NA 5.32 Jan 1 1.27 1.28 11.08 10.81 8.86 8.55 55.86 54.53 6.20 5.90 Feb 1 1.15 1.23 11.81 11.41 10.48 9.37 55.96 53.71 6.61 6.14 Mar 1 1.10 1.13 12.67 12.28 11.67 11.07 55.76 52.38 7.07 6.44 Apr 1 0.92 0.90 12.85 12.40 14.17 13.93 56.45 53.47 7.25 6.65 May 1 0.79 0.79 13.27 12.49 17.20 16.02 56.01 52.91 7.44 6.62 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used. Maturity test averages by areas, May 1, 2003 Unfinished Solids Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice per box per box sampled (Brix) Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds ORANGES: Late Indian River Dist. 14 0.82 13.10 16.24 54.26 7.13 Other Areas 45 0.78 12.30 15.94 52.50 6.47 FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions from the April size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period April 17 through 29, 2003. Comparable sizes for 2001 and 2002 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from February measurements Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2000 2001 2002 - - - Percent - - - - Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 8.1 10.1 27.4 80 24.3 23.8 34.8 100 39.6 33.8 27.6 125 21.2 22.4 8.4 163 and smaller 6.8 9.9 1.8 The chart below compares the relationship of the April 2003 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in April 2002. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value. [chart: Valencia size frequency] 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------