------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS JUNE FORECAST June 11, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FORECAST DATE 2002-03 SEASON July 11, 2003 ORANGES RAISED TO 201.0 MILLION BOXES The 2002-03 Florida all orange forecast, released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is increased to 201.0 million boxes, 13 percent below last season's production. Comprising the forecast are 112.0 million boxes of early-midseason fruit (including 5.4 million boxes of Navels) and 89.0 million boxes of late (Valencia) oranges. The route survey conducted June 2-3 shows less than seven percent of the Valencia rows unharvested and confirms the increased forecasts of Valencias and all oranges. Response was excellent to the annual Processors Survey regarding Valencia usage. The amount remaining to be processed, along with the certified utilization to date, and an allowance for non-certified fruit, support the new forecast. Citrus production, June 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and States, with comparisons Crop and Production Forecast State 2000-01 2001-02 May 12, 2003 Jun 11, 2003 - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 112,000 112,000 California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000 Texas 2,000 1,530 1,400 1,400 Arizona 480 270 200 200 Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 153,600 153,600 Valencias: FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 88,000 89,000 California 19,000 20,500 22,000 22,000 Texas 235 210 180 180 Arizona 420 250 200 200 Total Valencias 114,955 122,960 110,380 111,380 All Oranges: FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 200,000 201,000 California 54,500 54,500 62,000 62,000 Texas 2,235 1,740 1,580 1,580 Arizona 900 520 400 400 Total All Oranges 280,935 286,760 263,980 264,980 Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 39,000 38,700 White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,500 16,200 Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 22,500 22,500 Texas 7,200 5,900 5,500 5,500 Arizona 250 160 100 100 California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600 Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 50,200 49,900 Lemons: California 22,600 19,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,900 2,900 Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,900 25,900 Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/ Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,300 1,300 Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,350 2,350 K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,400 5,500 Early 4/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000 Honey 2,050 2,250 2,400 2,500 California 5/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500 Arizona 5/ 650 620 400 400 Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,300 8,400 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos. ALL GRAPEFRUIT NOW 38.7 MILLION BOXES The all grapefruit forecast is adjusted downward by 300,000 boxes to 38.7 million boxes. The adjustment is all in the white category, now forecast at 16.2 million boxes. The white portion is 14 percent less than harvested last season. The colored varieties forecast remains unchanged at 22.5 million boxes. The colored varieties forecast is 19 percent less than harvested last season and the lowest amount since the 1991-92 season. Harvest is finished for the season as most packinghouses and processors are no longer receiving grapefruit. The row count survey indicates about four percent of the white rows and three percent of the colored rows remain unharvested but most do not contain usable fruit. Final utilization estimates released in September will include estimates of economic abandonment in footnotes if measurable amounts occur. SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE Temple harvest is over with utilization at 1.3 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season. Tangelo utilization at 2.35 million boxes is up for the second consecutive season. Tangerine harvest is complete with the early portion ( Fallglo and Sunburst) totaling 3.0 million boxes. The forecast of the Honey portion is increased 100,000 boxes to 2.5 million boxes. At 5.5 million boxes, the total tangerine utilization is 17 percent less than last season. FCOJ NOW 1.52 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange FCOJ yield is lowered to 1.52 gallons of 42.0 degrees Brix concentrate from 1.53 gallons projected last month. The Valencias are also lowered to 1.56 gallons. The early and midseason oranges are final at 1.491993 gallons per box. ------------------------------------------------------------------------