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CITRUS
JULY FORECAST
FORECAST COMPONENTS

July 11, 2003

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service   |  1222 Woodward Street   |  Orlando, Florida 32803   |  407 / 648-6013


The first forecast of the 2003-2004 season will be released at 8:30 A.M. on October 10, 2003


Citrus production, July 1, 2003
forecasts by varieties and States, with comparisons
Crop and State Production Forecast
2000-01 2001-02 Jun 11, 2003 Jul 11, 2003
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 112,000 112,000
California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000
Texas 2,000 1,530 1,400 1,350
Arizona 480 270 200 200
Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 153,600 153,550
Valencias:
FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 89,000 90,700
California 19,000 20,500 22,000 21,000
Texas 235 210 180 220
Arizona 420 250 200 250
Total Valencias 114,955 122,960 111,380 112,170
All Oranges:
FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 201,000 202,700
California 54,500 54,500 62,000 61,000
Texas 2,235 1,740 1,580 1,570
Arizona 900 520 400 450
Total All Oranges 280,935 286,760 264,980 265,720
Grapefruit:
FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 38,700 38,700
White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,200 16,200
Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 22,500 22,500
Texas 7,200 5,900 5,500 5,650
Arizona 250 160 100 100
California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600
Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 49,900 50,050
Lemons:
California 22,600 19,000 23,000 24,000
Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,900 3,000
Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,900 27,000
Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/
Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,300 1,300
Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,350 2,350
K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/
Tangerines:
FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,500 5,500
Early 4/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000
Honey 2,050 2,250 2,500 2,500
California 5/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500
Arizona 5/ 650 620 400 400
Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,400 8,400
1/ Includes seedy.
2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment.
3/ No forecast.
4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only.
5/ Includes tangelos.


ORANGES NOW 202.7 MILLION BOXES

  All Florida oranges are now forecast at 202.7 million boxes in the final report of the season released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board. This is three percent more than forecast initially in October but 12 percent less than the previous season's 230.0 million boxes harvested.

  Early-midseason-Navels are final at 112.0 million boxes, 13 percent less than last season, and Valencias--now forecast at 90.7 million boxes--are 11 percent less. Harvest is virtually complete with minimal amounts of fruit still being packed for fresh use and several fresh squeeze plants still operating on a limited basis.

  Page 2 of this release shows components used to forecast this season's crops with comparisons.


ALL GRAPEFRUIT FINAL AT 38.7 MILLION BOXES

  Grapefruit harvest is complete with only fresh squeeze plants remaining open on a limited basis. At 38.7 million boxes, this is the smallest harvest since the freeze affected 1989-90 season when 35.7 million were utilized. The white portion, at 16.2 million boxes is 14 percent less than harvested last season and colored at 22.5 million boxes is 19 percent less.

  Harvest this season is estimated to be the most complete in several years. Only a limited number of small blocks remain and if there is any estimate of economic abandonment, it will be referenced in footnotes at the conclusion of the season.


SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE

  Temple harvest is over with utilization at 1.3 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season. Tangelo utilization at 2.35 million boxes is up for the second consecutive season. Tangerine harvest is complete at 5.5 million boxes, 17 percent less than last season. The early category ( Fallglo and Sunburst) total of 3.0 million boxes is the lowest since 1995-96. The forecast of the Honey portion is 2.5 million boxes, up 11 percent from last season.


FCOJ NOW 1.54 GALLONS PER BOX

  The all orange FCOJ yield is final at 1.54 gallons as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association on report number 39. This is an increase from the 1.52 gallons projected last month because of adjustments reported by the association. The adjustments are in the Valencia portion which is reported final at 1.61 gallons, up from the 1.56 gallons projected in last month's report.

  This is the lowest yield for all oranges since the 1995-96 season yield of 1.52 gallons per box. Valencia yield is the lowest since the 1.58 gallons recorded in the 1994-95 season. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.49 gallons.


FORECAST COMPONENTS OF PRODUCTION FROM OBJECTIVE SURVEYS

  The table shows the production components used for the 2002-03 forecast season. Bearing trees are estimated at the beginning of each forecast season using the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory with an allowance for expected attrition. Revisions are made to the historic series where applicable.

  Fruit per tree is the weighted average obtained from the annual Limb Count Survey. This survey is conducted during a two-month period beginning in late July. Survey averages for each tree age group within an area are weighted by the estimated number of bearing trees for each age group.

  Fruit size measurements and drop observations are obtained from monthly size and drop surveys. The average drop percentages are from the "cut-off" month survey which varies by variety according to the usual harvest period. Average fruit sizes were also obtained from the same survey period but have been converted in the table to estimated number of fruit needed to fill a box.

  These four factors are the primary components used in the initial October forecast and in following months up to the "cut-off" for each fruit type. The first two have the greatest influence on the forecast.

Equation: Florida citrus forecast model
Fruit type
and
crop year 		Number bearing trees
(millions) 		Sample survey averages
Fruit per
tree 		Percent
drop 1/ 		Fruit per
box 1/
EARLY-MID ORANGES 2/
  1998-99 37.135 909 12 249
  1999-00 35.982 1,036 8 236
  2000-01 35.694 1,125 6 269
  2001-02 34.177 1,148 9 259
  2002-03 34.042 950 13 225
NAVEL ORANGES
  1998-99 2.989 290 15 140
  1999-00 2.853 348 15 131
  2000-01 2.752 384 12 137
  2001-02 2.439 464 11 136
  2002-03 2.313 454 12 133
VALENCIA ORANGES
  1998-99 39.484 530 20 214
  1999-00 39.883 598 11 205
  2000-01 41.119 625 12 213
  2001-02 40.978 640 13 211
  2002-03 41.682 524 20 181
WHITE SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT
  1998-99 4.397 405 10 89
  1999-00 4.337 3/ 479 3/ 10 89
  2000-01 4.090 481 8 93
  2001-02 3.970 530 10 96
  2002-03 3.784 398 9 79
COLORED SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT
  1998-99 7.802 437 12 98
  1999-00 7.654 3/ 431 3/ 13 95
  2000-01 7.374 476 8 101
  2001-02 6.728 522 11 105
  2002-03 6.352 387 12 87
1/ Averages at cut-off month--January 1 for Early-mids, December 1 for Navels, April 1 for Valencias, and February 1 for grapefruit.
2/ Excludes Navels.
3/ Hurricane survey adjustments.

2


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