------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS JULY FORECAST FORECAST COMPONENTS July 11, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- The first forecast of the 2003-2004 season will be released at 8:30 A.M. on October 10, 2003 Citrus production, July 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Crop and Production Forecast State 2000-01 2001-02 Jun 11, 2003 Jul 11, 2003 - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 112,000 112,000 California 35,500 34,000 40,000 40,000 Texas 2,000 1,530 1,400 1,350 Arizona 480 270 200 200 Total Above Varieties 165,980 163,800 153,600 153,550 Valencias: FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 89,000 90,700 California 19,000 20,500 22,000 21,000 Texas 235 210 180 220 Arizona 420 250 200 250 Total Valencias 114,955 122,960 111,380 112,170 All Oranges: FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 201,000 202,700 California 54,500 54,500 62,000 61,000 Texas 2,235 1,740 1,580 1,570 Arizona 900 520 400 450 Total All Oranges 280,935 286,760 264,980 265,720 Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 38,700 38,700 White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,200 16,200 Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 22,500 22,500 Texas 7,200 5,900 5,500 5,650 Arizona 250 160 100 100 California 6,300 6,000 5,600 5,600 Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,760 49,900 50,050 Lemons: California 22,600 19,000 23,000 24,000 Arizona 3,600 2,800 2,900 3,000 Total Lemons 26,200 21,800 25,900 27,000 Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/ Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,300 1,300 Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,350 2,350 K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,500 5,500 Early 4/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 3,000 Honey 2,050 2,250 2,500 2,500 California 5/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500 Arizona 5/ 650 620 400 400 Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,400 8,400 ------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 - Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 forecast - Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos. ORANGES NOW 202.7 MILLION BOXES All Florida oranges are now forecast at 202.7 million boxes in the final report of the season released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board. This is three percent more than forecast initially in October but 12 percent less than the previous season's 230.0 million boxes harvested. Early-midseason-Navels are final at 112.0 million boxes, 13 percent less than last season, and Valencias--now forecast at 90.7 million boxes--are 11 percent less. Harvest is virtually complete with minimal amounts of fruit still being packed for fresh use and several fresh squeeze plants still operating on a limited basis. Page 2 of this release shows components used to forecast this season's crops with comparisons. ALL GRAPEFRUIT FINAL AT 38.7 MILLION BOXES Grapefruit harvest is complete with only fresh squeeze plants remaining open on a limited basis. At 38.7 million boxes, this is the smallest harvest since the freeze affected 1989-90 season when 35.7 million were utilized. The white portion, at 16.2 million boxes is 14 percent less than harvested last season and colored at 22.5 million boxes is 19 percent less. Harvest this season is estimated to be the most complete in several years. Only a limited number of small blocks remain and if there is any estimate of economic abandonment, it will be referenced in footnotes at the conclusion of the season. SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE Temple harvest is over with utilization at 1.3 million boxes, down 16 percent from last season. Tangelo utilization at 2.35 million boxes is up for the second consecutive season. Tangerine harvest is complete at 5.5 million boxes, 17 percent less than last season. The early category ( Fallglo and Sunburst) total of 3.0 million boxes is the lowest since 1995-96. The forecast of the Honey portion is 2.5 million boxes, up 11 percent from last season. FCOJ NOW 1.54 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange FCOJ yield is final at 1.54 gallons as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association on report number 39. This is an increase from the 1.52 gallons projected last month because of adjustments reported by the association. The adjustments are in the Valencia portion which is reported final at 1.61 gallons, up from the 1.56 gallons projected in last month's report. This is the lowest yield for all oranges since the 1995-96 season yield of 1.52 gallons per box. Valencia yield is the lowest since the 1.58 gallons recorded in the 1994-95 season. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.49 gallons. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FORECAST COMPONENTS OF PRODUCTION FROM OBJECTIVE SURVEYS The table shows the production components used for the 2002-03 forecast season. Bearing trees are estimated at the beginning of each forecast season using the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory with an allowance for expected attrition. Revisions are made to the historic series where applicable. Fruit per tree is the weighted average obtained from the annual Limb Count Survey. This survey is conducted during a two-month period beginning in late July. Survey averages for each tree age group within an area are weighted by the estimated number of bearing trees for each age group. Fruit size measurements and drop observations are obtained from monthly size and drop surveys. The average drop percentages are from the "cut-off" month survey which varies by variety according to the usual harvest period. Average fruit sizes were also obtained from the same survey period but have been converted in the table to estimated number of fruit needed to fill a box. These four factors are the primary components used in the initial October forecast and in following months up to the "cut-off" for each fruit type. The first two have the greatest influence on the forecast. [Equation: Florida citrus forecast model] Sample survey Fruit Number averages type bearing Fruit Fruit and trees per Percent per crop year (millions) tree drop 1/ box 1/ EARLY-MID ORANGES 2/ 1998-99 37.135 909 12 249 1999-00 35.982 1,036 8 236 2000-01 35.694 1,125 6 269 2001-02 34.177 1,148 9 259 2002-03 34.042 950 13 225 NAVEL ORANGES 1998-99 2.989 290 15 140 1999-00 2.853 348 15 131 2000-01 2.752 384 12 137 2001-02 2.439 464 11 136 2002-03 2.313 454 12 133 VALENCIA ORANGES 1998-99 39.484 530 20 214 1999-00 39.883 598 11 205 2000-01 41.119 625 12 213 2001-02 40.978 640 13 211 2002-03 41.682 524 20 181 WHITE SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT 1998-99 4.397 405 10 89 1999-00 4.337 3/ 479 3/ 10 89 2000-01 4.090 481 8 93 2001-02 3.970 530 10 96 2002-03 3.784 398 9 79 COLORED SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT 1998-99 7.802 437 12 98 1999-00 7.654 3/ 431 3/ 13 95 2000-01 7.374 476 8 101 2001-02 6.728 522 11 105 2002-03 6.352 387 12 87 ----------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Averages at cut-off month--January 1 for Early-mids, December 1 for Navels, April 1 for Valencias, and February 1 for grapefruit. 2/ Excludes Navels. 3/ Hurricane survey adjustments. 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------