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CITRUS
JANUARY FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE

January 12, 2004

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service   |  1222 Woodward Street   |  Orlando, Florida 32803   |  407 / 648-6013


FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON
February 10, 2004 March 10, 2004
April 8, 2004 May 12, 2004
June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004


ALL ORANGES NOW AT 250.0 MILLION BOXES

  In a report issued by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, the forecast of all oranges is lowered to 250.0 million boxes. This reflects a decrease of 2.0 million boxes in the forecast of early-midseason varieties while the forecast for Valencia oranges remains at 118.0 million boxes. In the past 10 seasons, the January forecast has differed from actual production by an average of 2.5 percent, with six seasons higher and four lower.

  The month of December was a peak harvesting month for early and midseason varieties with weekly certifications exceeding 7.9 million boxes except for the Christmas week. Estimated utilization to January 1, with an allowance for gift fruit and other use, has passed 60.0 million boxes. Harvest figures do not include the later maturing Valencia oranges. A brief period of very warm temperatures occurred at the end of the month but temperatures have returned to more seasonable levels.


Citrus production, January 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production   Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 Dec 11, 2003 Jan 12, 2004
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 134,000 132,000
California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000
Texas 1,530 1,350 1,300 1,300
Arizona 270 200 220 220
Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 174,520 172,520
Valencias:
FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 118,000 118,000
California 19,500 21,000 20,000 19,000
Texas 210 220 250 230
Arizona 250 270 250 250
Total Valencias 121,960 112,490 138,500 137,480
All Oranges:
FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 252,000 250,000
California 51,500 62,000 59,000 58,000
Texas 1,740 1,570 1,550 1,530
Arizona 520 470 470 470
Total All Oranges 283,760 267,040 313,020 310,000


EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 132.0 MILLION BOXES

  The early-midseason-Navel orange forecast is decreased 2.0 million boxes, or 1.5 percent, to 132.0 million boxes. The Navel portion of the crop continues at 4.8 million boxes. Results from the size and drop surveys conducted in December show that the accepted droppage rate is higher and the average size is smaller than previously projected, thus requiring six more pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box.

  The first route survey (Row Count) was conducted on December 29-30. At 46 percent, the weighted percentage of rows harvested is lower than last season for early-mids, but is higher than the five prior seasons. Over three-fourths of the Navel rows are harvested, more than in the previous five seasons at this time. With reports of fruit drying, final utilization may depend on the usability of the remaining fruit.


Components used in the January Forecast
Type Bearing
trees 		Fruit per
tree 		Percent
droppage 		Fruit per
box
  (1,000)  
Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 10.9 245
Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129
Valencia 41,572 684 12.5 198


VALENCIAS STAY AT 118.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast for the late maturing Valencia oranges is unchanged at 118.0 million boxes. Fruit sizes continue above average though not as large as last season. Droppage, which has been below average all season and is currently near the minimum of the previous 10 seasons, is projected to be lower than seven seasons in that series. Objective survey regressions continue to support this record forecast which is 30 percent greater than the harvest of 2002-03.


FCOJ YIELD NOW 1.53 GALLONS PER BOX

  The projection of yield of FCOJ for all oranges is reduced from 1.55 gallons per box to 1.53. The early-mid portion is projected to yield 1.47 gallons and the Valencia portion 1.60 gallons. Last season's final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association was 1.54 gallons for all oranges, 1.49 for the early-mid portion and 1.61 for Valencias.

  Reports of fruit drying is reflected in the relatively low season to date yields as reported by the Association. Additionally, Maturity test results reported on page 3 of this release confirm continued drying of fruit remaining to be harvested.

GRAPEFRUIT NOW 40.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is decreased 1.0 million boxes to 40.0 million. The reduction is in the white varieties, from 17.0 million boxes to 16.0 million. If realized, this will be only three percent more than last season's 38.7 million boxes

  With the decrease, the forecast for white grapefruit is slightly less than last season's harvest. Average fruit sizes for white grapefruit are projected to be smaller than in earlier forecasts and smaller than the 10 season average of 86 pieces of fruit per box. It will now take 91 pieces of fruit to fill a standard field box compared to 85 in December and 81 in October. This season's growth rate has followed a pattern similar to last season and both differ from the previous nine seasons. Projected droppage rates remain at the average which is nine percent. Utilization to the first of the month is estimated at 2.1 million boxes.

  The colored grapefruit forecast is continued at 24.0 million boxes. Fruit sizes, following a similar pattern to last season when the rate of growth was above average early in the season then slowed, continue to be less than the average. Currently, it is projected to require 100 pieces of fruit to make a standard field box instead of the 91 pieces used in the initial October forecast. If realized, only two seasons out of the past ten will have had smaller sizes. Droppage rates continue to be projected near normal levels. Utilization to the first of the month is estimated at 7.1 million boxes, only slightly less than last season to the same time.


Components used in the January forecast
Type Bearing
trees 		Fruit per
tree 		Percent
droppage 		Fruit per
box
  (1,000)  
White Grapefruit 1/ 3,333 497 9.0 91
Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 11.0 100
1/ Seedless variety only.


Citrus production, January 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production   Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 Dec 11, 2003 Jan 12, 2004
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
   FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 41,000 40,000
       White 1/ 18,900 16,200 17,000 16,000
       Colored 27,800 22,500 24,000 24,000
  Texas 5,900 5,650 5,300 5,200
  Arizona 160 130 90 100
  California 5,900 5,600 5,500 5,300
Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 51,890 50,600
Lemons:
  California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000
  Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,200
Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,000 26,200
Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/
Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400
Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,300 1,300
K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/
Tangerines:
   FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,700 6,700
    Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 4,400 4,400
    Honey 2,250 2,500 2,300 2,300
  California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,500 2,500
  Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600
Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,800 9,800
1/ Includes seedy.
2/ No forecast.
3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only.
4/ Includes tangelos.


ALL TANGERINES 6.7 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of all tangerines is continued at 6.7 million boxes. Forecasts for the early varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) and the later maturing Honey variety are unchanged.

  Fallglo harvest is complete with slightly less than 700,000 boxes estimated to have been used in fresh and processing channels. Sunburst tangerines continue to be harvested with the latest weekly amounts ahead of last season. All early tangerine utilization is estimated to be 3.4 million boxes to the first of the month, ahead of the 3.0 million boxes estimated to the same time last season.

  Fruit sizes of Honey tangerines continue to be large and are projected to be larger at harvest than all but one of the previous ten seasons. Droppage rates continue as projected and would be slightly less than the 10 season average of 39 percent. Harvest has started with about 100,000 boxes certified for fresh use and processing, slightly less than last season to the same time.


TEMPLES STAY AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The Temple forecast remains at 1.4 million boxes which is eight percent more than the 1.3 million box crop recorded last season. If attained, it will equal the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest and surpass only 2000-01 and last season. Although fruit per tree has increased 22 percent from last season, droppage is near normal levels, fruit sizes are below average, and tree numbers are down nine percent from last year.


TANGELOS REMAIN AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo forecast is unchanged at 1.3 million boxes. This will be the smallest amount of harvest since the 1965-66 season. Fruit sizes are near the largest of the previous ten seasons and droppage is below average. A route survey (Row Count) conducted on December 29-30 fully supports the forecast level. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is 650,000 boxes.

Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample
groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons
Fruit type
(No. groves)
test date 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished juice
per box 		Solids
per box
2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04
  Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
  Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
Oranges:
  Early (42-54)
    Sep 1 1.37 1.24 9.43 9.26 7.03 7.58 43.66 42.32 4.12 3.92
    Oct 1 0.92 0.86 9.89 9.69 10.98 11.49 51.02 49.53 5.04 4.80
    Nov 1 0.74 0.76 10.46 10.46 14.47 14.07 52.26 51.32 5.46 5.37
    Dec 1 0.75 0.67 11.25 11.36 15.26 17.26 49.04 50.88 5.51 5.77
    Jan 1 0.70 0.67 11.60 11.53 16.81 17.60 51.51 49.24 5.97 5.69
  Mid (43-41)
    Sep 1 1.44 1.45 8.99 9.33 6.35 6.52 45.98 44.19 4.13 4.13
    Oct 1 1.03 1.06 9.55 9.73 9.52 9.30 52.68 49.08 5.03 4.78
    Nov 1 0.83 0.89 10.34 10.71 12.77 12.20 54.56 52.25 5.64 5.59
    Dec 1 0.79 0.78 11.23 11.72 14.46 15.29 53.17 52.09 5.97 6.10
    Jan 1 0.76 0.80 11.84 12.04 15.87 15.40 52.41 51.37 6.21 6.18
  Late (150-150)
    Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
    Oct 1 2.04 2.01 8.70 8.92 4.34 4.47 48.96 46.28 4.26 4.13
    Nov 1 1.64 1.63 9.23 9.55 5.72 5.91 52.37 51.07 4.83 4.88
    Dec 1 1.42 1.40 10.05 10.38 7.19 7.53 53.19 53.45 5.35 5.55
    Jan 1 1.24 1.26 10.85 11.13 8.86 8.94 54.28 53.39 5.89 5.95
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used.


Maturity test averages by areas, January 1, 2004
Fruit type Groves
sampled 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished
juice per box 		Solids
per box
  Number Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
Oranges:
  Early
    Indian River Dist. 4 0.77 12.31 16.24 51.77 6.38
    Other Areas 50 0.66 11.47 17.71 49.04 5.63
  Midseason
    Indian River Dist. 10 0.78 12.07 15.58 52.06 6.28
    Other Areas 31 0.80 12.03 15.34 51.15 6.15
  Late
    Indian River Dist. 26 1.28 11.33 8.99 53.72 6.09
    Other Areas 124 1.25 11.09 8.93 53.32 5.92

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions are from the December size survey conducted in sample groves during the period of December 4 through 24, 2003. The distributions are by percent from fruit within the size range of each 4/5 bushel container. These frequency distributions relate only to fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom fruit in all seasons.


Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions
from December measurements
Type of fruit and size
in 4/5-bushel containers 		2001 2002 2003
  - - - Percent - - -
Early and midseason oranges:
  (excluding Navels)
     64 and larger 3.3 6.7 4.3
     80 9.4 23.0 13.4
    100 31.4 37.9 32.5
    125 33.2 23.0 31.2
    163 and smaller 22.7 9.4 18.6
Valencia oranges:
     64 and larger 4.1 13.3 8.2
     80 18.8 35.1 26.6
    100 39.9 36.8 41.0
    125 26.0 12.7 19.3
    163 and smaller 11.2 2.1 4.9
White seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 10.2 33.0 13.6
     36 16.8 22.3 20.4
     40 21.5 20.1 24.9
     48 20.4 11.3 16.2
     56 14.2 6.0 9.6
     63 and smaller 16.9 7.3 15.3
Colored seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 3.9 20.5 8.6
     36 10.8 22.2 16.1
     40 21.1 23.3 25.7
     48 22.6 15.9 20.6
     56 16.1 7.8 12.9
     63 and smaller 25.5 10.3 16.1
Honey tangerines:
     80 and larger 39.4 29.4 40.8
    100 31.0 34.2 32.7
    120 20.1 23.4 16.7
    176 6.3 7.3 4.7
    210 and smaller 3.2 5.7 5.1
Temples:
     80 and larger 21.1 62.6 31.3
    100 41.6 28.6 36.9
    120 28.8 7.1 19.4
    156 and smaller 8.5 1.7 12.4


  The charts below describe the relationships of the fruit size measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest values.
chart: early-midseason orange size frequency
chart: white seedless grapefruit size frequency



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