February 10, 2004

FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON
March 10, 2004	April 8, 2004
May 12, 2004	June 11, 2004
July 12, 2004

ALL ORANGES NOW AT 246.0 MILLION BOXES

  In the latest crop report released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, the forecast of all oranges for Florida is decreased 4.0 million boxes from 250.0 million forecast last month to 246.0 million. The decrease is in the early- midseason-Navel portion which is now forecast at 128.0 million boxes. The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 118.0 million boxes. In the past 10 seasons, the February all orange forecast has differed from actual utilization by an average of 2.4 percent, with four seasons above the average and six below.

  Harvest of the early-midseason oranges was at peak levels during January exceeding 8.5 million boxes weekly until the end of the month. Estimated utilization to February 1st is 96.4 million boxes. Weather conditions during the month were typical for winter with several mornings in the low to mid 30s following the passage of cold fronts through the state. Rainfall associated with the fronts and a low pressure system in the third week of the month brought varying amounts to most growing areas.

Components used in the February Forecast
Type	Bearing trees	Fruit per tree	Percent droppage	Fruit per box
	(1,000)
Early-Mid	32,161	1,236	10.9	245
Navel	2,158	379	9.1	129
Valencia	41,572	684	11.5	198

Citrus production, February 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State	Production		Forecast
	2001-02	2002-03	Jan 12, 2004	Feb 10, 2004
	- - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA	128,000	112,000	132,000	128,000
California	32,000	41,000	39,000	39,000
Texas	1,530	1,350	1,300	1,300
Arizona	270	200	220	220
Total Above Varieties	161,800	154,550	172,520	168,520
Valencias:
FLORIDA	102,000	91,000	118,000	118,000
California	19,500	21,000	19,000	19,000
Texas	210	220	230	230
Arizona	250	270	250	250
Total Valencias	121,960	112,490	137,480	137,480
All Oranges:
FLORIDA	230,000	203,000	250,000	246,000
California	51,500	62,000	58,000	58,000
Texas	1,740	1,570	1,530	1,530
Arizona	520	470	470	470
Total All Oranges	283,760	267,040	310,000	306,000

EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 128.0 MILLION BOXES

  The reduction of four million boxes in this month's forecast is indicated by the Row Count Survey which was conducted near the end of January. The survey indicated that 77 percent of the rows were harvested and when combined with estimated utilization to that same day, indicated the reduction from the January forecast. Final month fruit size and droppage measurements provided last month had also acted to reduce the forecast from October which was 137.0 million boxes.

  The Navel portion of the early-midseason-Navel forecast is also decreased, from 4.8 million boxes to 4.3. Harvest decreased during the month as crystallization occurring in the tops of fruit has decreased its usability for fresh shipments. The Row Count Survey shows about 15 percent of the rows remaining, but weekly harvest is declining rapidly. Estimated utilization to February 1st is 4.2 million boxes.

VALENCIAS STAY AT 118.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the late maturing Valencia oranges is unchanged from last month at 118.0 million boxes, 30 percent greater than last season's harvest. Fruit sizes continue to measure above average though not as large as last season. Droppage of fruit from the trees continues to be measured at minimal levels as compared to historical averages and is projected to be near a record low level at harvest. Limited harvest for fresh shipments has started.

FCOJ YIELD 1.53 GALLONS PER BOX

  The projection of yield of FCOJ for all oranges is continued at 1.53 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion projection is continued at 1.47 gallons, slightly less than last season's 1.49 gallons. Season to date yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association through January 31st is 1.41 gallons per box with weekly amounts above 1.50.

   The Valencia portion projection is continued at 1.60 gallons per box, slightly less than last season's final yield of 1.61 gallons. Results of maturity testing of fruit remaining for harvest is reported on page 3.

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GRAPEFRUIT 40.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 40.0 million boxes. Making up the forecast is 16.0 million boxes of white grapefruit and 24.0 million boxes of colored varieties, both unchanged from last month. If realized, this will be three percent more than the 38.7 million boxes harvested last season.

  The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in January are considered final for expansion purposes and indicate for the white seedless grapefruit that fruit sizes are smaller than projected in October. For the second season, the rate of growth was much smaller after October than the 10 season average. Droppage was projected to be at normal levels (about nine percent) but was measured at 11.4 percent in January. Both factors acted to reduce the size of the forecasted crop from the initial 17.0 million boxes in October to the current level in January. Results of the first Row Count Survey of grapefruit, conducted January 28-29, are inconclusive because too few rows have been harvested. Estimated utilization to the first of February is 4.1 million boxes with weekly amounts increasing as more fruit is harvested for processing usage.

  The colored grapefruit forecast is continued at 24.0 million boxes. As with white grapefruit, fruit sizes did not advance as much as the 10 season average indicated. Drop was projected near normal in October (about 10 percent) but was measured last month at 12.4 percent. Both factors have had a negative impact on the forecast. The initial Row Count Survey results, with 39 percent of the rows harvested, fully supports the 24.0 million box forecast. Estimated utilization to February 1 is 11.1 million boxes.

Components used in the February forecast
Type	Bearing trees	Fruit per tree	Percent droppage	Fruit per box
	(1,000)
White Grapefruit 1/	3,333	497	11.4	91
Colored Grapefruit	5,461	503	12.4	101
1/ Seedless variety only.

Citrus production, February 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State	Production		Forecast
	2001-02	2002-03	Jan 12, 2004	Feb 10, 2004
	- - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
FLORIDA-All	46,700	38,700	40,000	40,000
White 1/	18,900	16,200	16,000	16,000
Colored	27,800	22,500	24,000	24,000
Texas	5,900	5,650	5,200	5,200
Arizona	160	130	100	100
California	5,900	5,600	5,300	5,300
Total Grapefruit	58,660	50,080	50,600	50,600
Lemons:
California	18,300	24,000	23,000	23,000
Arizona	2,800	3,000	3,200	3,200
Total Lemons	21,100	27,000	26,200	26,200
Limes: Florida	150	2/	2/	2/
Temples: Florida	1,550	1,300	1,400	1,400
Tangelos: Florida	2,150	2,350	1,300	1,300
K-Early: Florida	30	2/	2/	2/
Tangerines:
FLORIDA-All	6,600	5,500	6,700	5,900
Early 3/	4,350	3,000	4,400	3,600
Honey	2,250	2,500	2,300	2,300
California 4/	2,200	2,500	2,500	2,500
Arizona 4/	620	430	600	600
Total Tangerines	9,420	8,430	9,800	9,000
1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos.

ALL TANGERINES NOW 5.9 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of all tangerines is reduced 800,000 boxes to 5.9 million. The reduction is in the early varieties ( Fallglo and Sunburst) with the later maturing Honey variety unchanged.

  The forecast of utilization of the early tangerines is now 3.6 million boxes, 18 percent less than initially forecast in October but still 20 percent above the 3.0 million boxes harvested last season. Growers and packers report that fruit began to dry out and became unusable for fresh shipments near the first of the year. Remaining crops also may not be usable for processing.

  The forecast of Honey tangerines is continued at 2.3 million boxes. Average fruit sizes are above the 10 season average in the latest monthly measurements and near the October projection. Droppage is also near the October projection at 33 percent. The Row Count Survey results are not usable this month because too few rows have been harvested. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is slightly over 700,000 boxes.

TEMPLES STAY AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Temples remains unchanged at 1.4 million boxes. Average fruit sizes measured slightly below the 10 season average with droppage rates below average at only nine percent. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is only 300,000 boxes with weekly harvest increasing, mostly for processing.

TANGELOS REMAIN AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES

  The unchanged tangelo forecast is the smallest amount since the 1965-66 season. The Row Count Survey indicates 46 percent of the rows remaining for harvest but weekly harvest is declining rapidly. Final utilization will depend on processors' willingness to take the remainder of the crop.

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February Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons
Fruit type (No. groves) test date	Acid		Solids (Brix)		Ratio		Unfinished juice per box		Solids per box
	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04
	Percent		Percent				Pounds		Pounds
	Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
Oranges:
Early (16-25)
Sep 1	1.42	1.29	9.43	9.44	6.78	7.43	41.83	42.53	3.95	4.01
Oct 1	0.93	0.90	9.77	9.76	10.72	11.15	50.05	48.86	4.89	4.76
Nov 1	0.74	0.79	10.45	10.58	14.62	13.75	51.68	51.39	5.39	5.44
Dec 1	0.75	0.71	11.18	11.60	15.18	16.47	48.66	50.53	5.44	5.86
Jan 1	0.69	0.69	11.54	11.70	16.80	17.13	51.44	49.05	5.94	5.74
Feb 1	0.72	0.70	12.14	12.17	16.98	17.75	49.34	46.81	6.00	5.71
Mid (10-17)
Sep 1	1.32	1.51	8.88	9.37	6.88	6.30	46.63	44.90	4.13	4.21
Oct 1	0.96	1.09	9.33	9.79	10.00	9.13	53.88	49.57	5.02	4.85
Nov 1	0.76	0.88	10.29	10.72	13.95	12.31	55.01	52.14	5.65	5.58
Dec 1	0.71	0.83	11.02	11.91	15.95	14.50	52.58	51.38	5.80	6.12
Jan 1	0.71	0.82	11.47	12.34	16.70	15.40	51.97	51.19	5.98	6.31
Feb 1	0.73	0.88	11.99	13.16	17.07	15.49	49.62	47.33	5.96	6.23
Late (150-150)
Sep 1	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Oct 1	2.04	2.01	8.70	8.92	4.34	4.47	48.96	46.28	4.26	4.13
Nov 1	1.64	1.63	9.23	9.55	5.72	5.91	52.37	51.07	4.83	4.88
Dec 1	1.42	1.40	10.05	10.38	7.19	7.53	53.19	53.45	5.35	5.55
Jan 1	1.24	1.26	10.85	11.13	8.86	8.94	54.28	53.39	5.89	5.95
Feb 1	1.19	1.18	11.48	11.87	9.73	10.13	54.56	52.02	6.27	6.18
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used.

Maturity test averages by areas, January 1, 2004
Fruit type	Groves sampled	Acid	Solids (Brix)	Ratio	Unfinished juice per box	Solids per box
	Number	Percent	Percent		Pounds	Pounds
Oranges:
Early
Indian River Dist.	1	0.70	12.90	18.43	53.69	6.93
Other Areas	24	0.70	12.14	17.72	46.52	5.66
Midseason
Indian River Dist.	3	0.82	13.27	16.24	51.11	6.79
Other Areas	14	0.89	13.14	15.33	46.52	6.12
Late
Indian River Dist.	26	1.15	11.78	10.35	51.79	6.11
Other Areas	124	1.19	11.89	10.08	52.07	6.19

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February Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

3

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  Size frequency distributions from the January size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period January 9 through 27, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

FLORIDA CITRUS: Size frequency distributions from January measurements
Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers	2002	2003	2004
	- - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
64 and larger	5.7	15.7	9.6
80	22 .5	34.4	29.0
100	39.4	36.5	39.5
125	23.3	11.4	17.7
163 and smaller	9.1	2.0	4.2
White seedless grapefruit:
32 and larger	13.1	39.1	18.2
36	17.6	24.3	21.8
40	22.1	18.1	22.2
48	20.3	9.8	14.6
56	12.6	4.4	9.3
63 and smaller	14.3	4.3	13.9
Colored seedless grapefruit:
32 and larger	5.7	23.4	10.2
36	13.1	22.7	15.2
40	20.7	23.5	24.3
48	23.5	14.2	21.1
56	14.7	7.6	12.3
63 and smaller	22.3	8.6	16.9
Temples:
80 and larger	27.0	63.5	35.2
100	40.5	28.5	36.7
120	23.9	6.5	18.5
156 and smaller	8.6	1.5	9.6
Honey tangerines:
80 and larger	44.7	26.3	46.2
100	29.1	33.7	29.6
120	20.3	25.8	18.0
176	3.9	7.1	3.2
210 and smaller	2.0	7.1	3.0

  The charts below compare the relationship of the January 2004 Valencia orange and white seedless grapefruit fruit size measurements with those taken in January 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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February Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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