------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS FEBRUARY FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE February 10, 2004 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON -------------------------------------- March 10, 2004 April 8, 2004 May 12, 2004 June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004 -------------------------------------- ALL ORANGES NOW AT 246.0 MILLION BOXES In the latest crop report released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, the forecast of all oranges for Florida is decreased 4.0 million boxes from 250.0 million forecast last month to 246.0 million. The decrease is in the early- midseason-Navel portion which is now forecast at 128.0 million boxes. The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 118.0 million boxes. In the past 10 seasons, the February all orange forecast has differed from actual utilization by an average of 2.4 percent, with four seasons above the average and six below. Harvest of the early-midseason oranges was at peak levels during January exceeding 8.5 million boxes weekly until the end of the month. Estimated utilization to February 1st is 96.4 million boxes. Weather conditions during the month were typical for winter with several mornings in the low to mid 30s following the passage of cold fronts through the state. Rainfall associated with the fronts and a low pressure system in the third week of the month brought varying amounts to most growing areas. Citrus production, February 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 |Jan 12, 2003 Feb 10, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 132,000 128,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,300 1,300 Arizona 270 200 220 220 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 172,520 168,520 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 118,000 118,000 California 19,500 21,000 19,000 19,000 Texas 210 220 230 230 Arizona 250 270 250 250 Total Valencias 121,960 112,490 137,480 137,480 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 250,000 246,000 California 51,500 62,000 58,000 58,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,530 1,530 Arizona 520 470 470 470 Total All Oranges 283,760 267,040 310,000 306,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------- EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 128.0 MILLION BOXES The reduction of four million boxes in this month's forecast is indicated by the Row Count Survey which was conducted near the end of January. The survey indicated that 77 percent of the rows were harvested and when combined with estimated utilization to that same day, indicated the reduction from the January forecast. Final month fruit size and droppage measurements provided last month had also acted to reduce the forecast from October which was 137.0 million boxes. The Navel portion of the early-midseason-Navel forecast is also decreased, from 4.8 million boxes to 4.3. Harvest decreased during the month as crystallization occurring in the tops of fruit has decreased its usability for fresh shipments. The Row Count Survey shows about 15 percent of the rows remaining, but weekly harvest is declining rapidly. Estimated utilization to February 1st is 4.2 million boxes. Components used in the February Forecast ------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ------------------------------------------- (1,000) Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 10.9 245 Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129 Valencia 41,572 684 11.5 198 ------------------------------------------- VALENCIAS STAY AT 118.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of the late maturing Valencia oranges is unchanged from last month at 118.0 million boxes, 30 percent greater than last season's harvest. Fruit sizes continue to measure above average though not as large as last season. Droppage of fruit from the trees continues to be measured at minimal levels as compared to historical averages and is projected to be near a record low level at harvest. Limited harvest for fresh shipments has started. FCOJ YIELD 1.53 GALLONS PER BOX The projection of yield of FCOJ for all oranges is continued at 1.53 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion projection is continued at 1.47 gallons, slightly less than last season's 1.49 gallons. Season to date yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association through January 31st is 1.41 gallons per box with weekly amounts above 1.50. The Valencia portion projection is continued at 1.60 gallons per box, slightly less than last season's final yield of 1.61 gallons. Results of maturity testing of fruit remaining for harvest is reported on page 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ GRAPEFRUIT 40.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 40.0 million boxes. Making up the forecast is 16.0 million boxes of white grapefruit and 24.0 million boxes of colored varieties, both unchanged from last month. If realized, this will be three percent more than the 38.7 million boxes harvested last season. The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in January are considered final for expansion purposes and indicate for the white seedless grapefruit that fruit sizes are smaller than projected in October. For the second season, the rate of growth was much smaller after October than the 10 season average. Droppage was projected to be at normal levels (about nine percent) but was measured at 11.4 percent in January. Both factors acted to reduce the size of the forecasted crop from the initial 17.0 million boxes in October to the current level in January. Results of the first Row Count Survey of grapefruit, conducted January 28-29, are inconclusive because too few rows have been harvested. Estimated utilization to the first of February is 4.1 million boxes with weekly amounts increasing as more fruit is harvested for processing usage. The colored grapefruit forecast is continued at 24.0 million boxes. As with white grapefruit, fruit sizes did not advance as much as the 10 season average indicated. Drop was projected near normal in October (about 10 percent) but was measured last month at 12.4 percent. Both factors have had a negative impact on the forecast. The initial Row Count Survey results, with 39 percent of the rows harvested, fully supports the 24.0 million box forecast. Estimated utilization to February 1 is 11.1 million boxes. Components used in the February forecast ----------------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- (1,000) White Grapefruit 1/ 3,333 497 11.4 91 Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 12.4 101 ----------------------------------------------------- 1/ Seedless variety only. Citrus production, February 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | Jan 12, 2003 Feb 10, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,000 40,000 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 16,000 16,000 Colored 27,800 22,500 24,000 24,000 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,200 5,200 Arizona 160 130 100 100 California 5,900 5,600 5,300 5,300 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 50,600 50,600 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,200 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,200 26,200 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,300 1,300 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,700 5,900 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 4,400 3,600 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,300 2,300 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,500 2,500 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,800 9,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. ALL TANGERINES NOW 5.9 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all tangerines is reduced 800,000 boxes to 5.9 million. The reduction is in the early varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) with the later maturing Honey variety unchanged. The forecast of utilization of the early tangerines is now 3.6 million boxes, 18 percent less than initially forecast in October but still 20 percent above the 3.0 million boxes harvested last season. Growers and packers report that fruit began to dry out and became unusable for fresh shipments near the first of the year. Remaining crops also may not be usable for processing. The forecast of Honey tangerines is continued at 2.3 million boxes. Average fruit sizes are above the 10 season average in the latest monthly measurements and near the October projection. Droppage is also near the October projection at 33 percent. The Row Count Survey results are not usable this month because too few rows have been harvested. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is slightly over 700,000 boxes. TEMPLES STAY AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Temples remains unchanged at 1.4 million boxes. Average fruit sizes measured slightly below the 10 season average with droppage rates below average at only nine percent. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is only 300,000 boxes with weekly harvest increasing, mostly for processing. TANGELOS REMAIN AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES The unchanged tangelo forecast is the smallest amount since the 1965-66 season. The Row Count Survey indicates 46 percent of the rows remaining for harvest but weekly harvest is declining rapidly. Final utilization will depend on processors' willingness to take the remainder of the crop. ------------------------------------------------------------- February Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Early (16-25) Sep 1 1.42 1.29 9.43 9.44 6.78 7.43 41.83 42.53 3.95 4.01 Oct 1 0.93 0.90 9.77 9.76 10.72 11.15 50.05 48.86 4.89 4.76 Nov 1 0.74 0.79 10.45 10.58 14.62 13.75 51.68 51.39 5.39 5.44 Dec 1 0.75 0.71 11.18 11.60 15.18 16.47 48.66 50.53 5.44 5.86 Jan 1 0.69 0.69 11.54 11.70 16.80 17.13 51.44 49.05 5.94 5.74 Feb 1 0.72 0.70 12.14 12.17 16.98 17.75 49.34 46.81 6.00 5.71 Mid (10-17) Sep 1 1.32 1.51 8.88 9.37 6.88 6.30 46.63 44.90 4.13 4.21 Oct 1 0.96 1.09 9.33 9.79 10.00 9.13 53.88 49.57 5.02 4.85 Nov 1 0.76 0.88 10.29 10.72 13.95 12.31 55.01 52.14 5.65 5.58 Dec 1 0.71 0.83 11.02 11.91 15.95 14.50 52.58 51.38 5.80 6.12 Jan 1 0.71 0.82 11.47 12.34 16.70 15.40 51.97 51.19 5.98 6.31 Feb 1 0.73 0.88 11.99 13.16 17.07 15.49 49.62 47.33 5.96 6.23 Late (150-150) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.04 2.01 8.70 8.92 4.34 4.47 48.96 46.28 4.26 4.13 Nov 1 1.64 1.63 9.23 9.55 5.72 5.91 52.37 51.07 4.83 4.88 Dec 1 1.42 1.40 10.05 10.38 7.19 7.53 53.19 53.45 5.35 5.55 Jan 1 1.24 1.26 10.85 11.13 8.86 8.94 54.28 53.39 5.89 5.95 Feb 1 1.19 1.18 11.48 11.87 9.73 10.13 54.56 52.02 6.27 6.18 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used. Maturity test averages by areas, February 1, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice Solids sampled (Brix) per box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Early Indian River Dist. 1 0.70 12.90 18.43 53.69 6.93 Other Areas 24 0.70 12.14 17.72 46.52 5.66 Midseason Indian River Dist. 3 0.82 13.27 16.24 51.11 6.79 Other Areas 14 0.89 13.14 15.33 46.52 6.12 Late Indian River Dist. 26 1.15 11.78 10.35 51.79 6.11 Other Areas 124 1.19 11.89 10.08 52.07 6.19 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- February Forecast 3 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions from the January size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period January 9 through 27, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from January measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 5.7 15.7 9.6 80 22.5 34.4 29.0 100 39.4 36.5 39.5 125 23.3 11.4 17.7 163 and smaller 9.1 2.0 4.2 White seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 13.1 39.1 18.2 36 17.6 24.3 21.8 40 22.1 18.1 22.2 48 20.3 9.8 14.6 56 12.6 4.4 9.3 63 and smaller 14.3 4.3 13.9 Colored seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 5.7 23.4 10.2 36 13.1 22.7 15.2 40 20.7 23.5 24.3 48 23.5 14.2 21.1 56 14.7 7.6 12.3 63 and smaller 22.3 8.6 16.9 Temples: 80 and larger 27.0 63.5 35.2 100 40.5 28.5 36.7 120 23.9 6.5 18.5 156 and smaller 8.6 1.5 9.6 Honey tangerines: 80 and larger 44.7 26.3 46.2 100 29.1 33.7 29.6 120 20.3 25.8 18.0 176 3.9 7.1 3.2 210 and smaller 2.0 7.1 3.0 -------------------------------------------------- The charts below compare the relationship of the January 2004 Valencia orange and white seedless grapefruit fruit size measurements with those taken in January 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value. [chart: Valencia size frequency] [chart: White grapefruit size frequency] ------------------------------------------------------------- February Forecast 4 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------