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CITRUS
MARCH FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE

March 10, 2004

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service   |  1222 Woodward Street   |  Orlando, Florida 32803   |  407 / 648-6013


FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON
April 8, 2004 May 12, 2004
June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004


ALL ORANGES STAY AT 246.0 MILLION BOXES

  The Florida forecast of all oranges for recorded utilization, released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, of the USDA, is continued at 246.0 million boxes. Early and midseason oranges (including Navels) decreased to 127.0 million and late type (Valencia) oranges increased to 119.0 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be the largest on record, one percent above the previous production record of 244.0 million boxes in 1997-1998, and 21 percent above last season. In the previous 10 seasons, March forecasts of all oranges have differed from the final recorded utilization by an average of 1.5 percent, with four seasons above the final, and six below.

  The weather conditions for Florida citrus in February were generally beneficial to the current crop. Temperatures have been moderately cool, with no freezes, and rainfall in most areas has been sufficient.


Citrus production, March 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production   Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 Feb 10, 2004 Mar 10, 2004
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 128,000 127,000
California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000
Texas 1,530 1,350 1,300 1,300
Arizona 270 200 220 220
Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 168,520 167,520
Valencias:
FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 118,000 119,000
California 19,500 21,000 19,000 15,000
Texas 210 220 230 230
Arizona 250 270 250 250
Total Valencias 121,960 112,490 137,480 134,480
All Oranges:
FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 246,000 246,000
California 51,500 62,000 58,000 54,000
Texas 1,740 1,570 1,530 1,530
Arizona 520 470 470 470
Total All Oranges 283,760 267,040 306,000 302,000


EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 127.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the early and midseason oranges (including Navels) is lowered to 127.0 million boxes. Certified utilizations through March 7, as reported by the Citrus Administrative Committee, total 123.1 million boxes. An allowance for non-certified gift fruit raises the total of harvested fruit within 2.0 million boxes of this month's forecast. The row count survey conducted on March 1-2 indicated that 95 percent of the rows have been harvested. Weekly harvesting is decreasing as processing plants switch to Valencia oranges.


VALENCIAS RAISED TO 119.0 MILLION BOXES

  The late type (Valencia) orange forecast is increased to 119.0 million boxes. The fruit size remains above average, with fruit continuing to grow as projected. The average fruit loss from droppage on sample trees is a record low for the second consecutive month. These two factors together indicate an increase in the forecast. The row count survey, with less than four percent harvested, is not a factor in the decision to change the forecast.


Survey components used in the forecast 1/
Type Bearing
trees 		Fruit
per
tree 		Percent
droppage 		Fruit
per
box
  (1,000)      
Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 10.9 245
Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129
Valencia 41,572 684 11.3 197
1/ November survey data is considered final for Navels, December for early-mids, and March for Valencias.


FCOJ YIELD 1.53 GALLONS PER BOX

  The projection of yield of FCOJ for all oranges is unchanged at 1.53 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. There is, however, a shift in the yield by types. The early-midseason portion is now projected to yield 1.45 gallons per box, down from 1.47 last month. The Valencia portion is now projected to yield 1.62 gallons per box, up from 1.60 gallons.

  The early-mid harvest is almost complete with increasing amounts of Valencias being delivered to processing plants. Results of maturity testing of Valencias remaining for harvest is reported on page 3.


Citrus production, March 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production   Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 Feb 10, 2004 Mar 10, 2004
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
   FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,000 40,000
       White 1/ 18,900 16,200 16,000 16,000
       Colored 27,800 22,500 24,000 24,000
  Texas 5,900 5,650 5,200 5,200
  Arizona 160 130 100 100
  California 5,900 5,600 5,300 5,300
Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 50,600 50,600
Lemons:
  California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000
  Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,200
Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,200 26,200
Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/
Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400
Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,300 1,000
K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/
Tangerines:
   FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 5,900 5,900
    Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 3,600
    Honey 2,250 2,500 2,300 2,300
  California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,500 2,500
  Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600
Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,000 9,000
1/ Includes seedy.
2/ No forecast.
3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only.
4/ Includes tangelos.


GRAPEFRUIT 40.0 MILLION BOXES

  The grapefruit forecast for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 40.0 million boxes, unchanged since January. The forecast consists of 16.0 million boxes of white grapefruit and 24.0 million boxes of colored grapefruit. If realized, the total grapefruit crop will be three percent more than the 38.7 million boxes harvested last season.

  The primary indicator used this month is the row count survey conducted on March 1-2. White grapefruit had 60 percent rows harvested while colored grapefruit had 54 percent rows harvested. The harvest percentage for whites is much higher than recent seasons and similar to that of 1994-95 and 1995-96. The colored variety this year is near the average of the last ten years. The number of rows harvested versus the amount of fruit harvested did not suggest a change in the forecast.

  Fruit size measurements obtained in February show growth consistent with the previous months, fully supporting the forecast numbers for both white and colored grapefruit. The drop rate for white grapefruit is slightly higher than expected, however, not significantly enough to make a change in the forecast. Droppage of colored grapefruit continues as expected.

  Estimated utilization for all grapefruit to the first of March is 23.3 million boxes, with 7.6 million boxes of whites and 15.7 million boxes of colored varieties. Exports continue to keep many grapefruit houses running, as the domestic market lags behind in demand. Harvest of field run fruit for processing is increasing.


Survey components used in the forecast 1/
Type Bearing
trees 		Fruit per
tree 		Percent
droppage 		Fruit per
box
  (1,000)  
White Grapefruit 2/ 3,333 497 11.4 91
Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 12.4 101
1/ January survey data is considered final.
2/ Seedless variety only.


TANGERINES STAY AT 5.9 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of all tangerines remains unchanged at 5.9 million boxes. Harvesting of early season tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst) is relatively complete. Final utilization of early tangerines at 3.6 million boxes is 600,000 boxes (20 percent) more than last season's total.

  Later maturing Honey tangerines remain forecast at 2.3 million boxes. The row count survey showed only 39 percent of the rows harvested. In the past ten seasons, the harvest percentage on March 1 was lower only in the 1999-00 season.

  The monthly size and drop surveys show sizes slightly larger than the previous ten season average and the droppage rate below average. These components fully support the current forecast level. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is over 1.3 million boxes, near the same as last season to the same date.


TEMPLES CONTINUE AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Temples remains at 1.4 million boxes again this month. The monthly row count survey indicates that 54 percent of the rows have been harvested to date. Fruit sizes remain the same while drop percentages have increased only slightly. If realized, this crop will be 100,000 boxes more than last year's final production. Estimated utilization to March 1 is 850,000 boxes.


TANGELOS NOW 1.0 MILLION BOXES

  The tangelo forecast is lowered to 1.0 million boxes. Harvest is complete with an estimated 975,000 boxes utilized to March 1. The combination of very low fruit per tree (making it expensive to harvest) and the lack of demand for fruit for processing cut short the harvest of the remaining crops. The row count survey indicates about 35 percent of the rows did not get harvested.



March Forecast
Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
2


Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample
groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons
Fruit type
(No. groves)
test date 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished juice
per box 		Solids
per box
2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04
 
 		 Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
ORANGES:
  Late (142-149)
    Oct 1 2.05 2.01 8.69 8.92 4.32 4.48 48.92 46.28 4.25 4.13
    Nov 1 1.65 1.64 9.22 9.56 5.68 5.90 52.39 51.05 4.83 4.88
    Dec 1 1.43 1.40 10.05 10.39 7.14 7.53 53.23 53.44 5.35 5.55
    Jan 1 1.24 1.26 10.85 11.13 8.84 8.94 54.27 53.38 5.89 5.94
    Feb 1 1.20 1.18 11.48 11.87 9.69 10.12 54.54 52.01 6.26 6.18
    Mar 1 1.08 1.06 12.24 12.66 11.52 12.01 53.22 52.53 6.51 6.65
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.


Maturity test averages by areas, March 1, 2004
Fruit type Groves
sampled 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished
juice per box 		Solids
per box
  Number Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
ORANGES:
  Late
    Indian River Dist. 26 1.05 12.90 12.35 53.25 6.87
    Other Areas 123 1.07 12.61 11.94 52.38 6.61


FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the February size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period February 18 through 27, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.


Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from
February measurements
Type of fruit and size
in 4/5-bushel containers		 2002 2003 2004
  - - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
     64 and larger 6.9 14.7 11.2
     80 23.7 33.9 29.8
    100 37.8 36.4 38.4
    125 23.0 12.7 16.8
    163 and smaller 8.6 2.3 3.8
White seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 16.2 34.9 26.7
     36 18.7 24.7 21.0
     40 21.9 17.6 20.3
     48 20.5 11.4 13.2
     56 10.9 5.2 7.1
     63 and smaller 11.8 6.2 11.7
Colored seedless grapefruit:
     32 and larger 7.9 25.0 12.1
     36 14.9 22.8 20.2
     40 21.5 20.5 25.3
     48 21.7 14.6 17.1
     56 13.3 7.7 10.3
     63 and smaller 20.7 9.4 15.0


  The chart below compares the relationship of the February 2004 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in February 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.
chart: Valencia size frequency



March Forecast
Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
3

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