The Florida all orange forecast, released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the USDA is decreased 1.0 million boxes to 245.0 million. This is a record by only 1.0 million, surpassing the 244.0 million boxes produced in the 1997-98 season. It is also 42 million or 21 percent greater than last season's harvest of 203.0 million boxes.

  The reduction is in the Early-midseason-Navel category, an adjustment to the final utilization amount including an allowance of 2.0 million for unrecorded gift fruit and local sales. The Valencia portion remains the same as forecast last month, 119.0 million boxes. In the previous ten seasons, the April all orange forecast has differed from final utilization by an average of 1.4 percent with three seasons above the forecast and seven below.

  Citrus trees in Florida groves are in excellent condition despite the lack of rainfall in March. Irrigation is being used extensively as trees reached peak bloom in mid to late March. An excellent bloom was reported in all areas.

EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 126.0 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Early-midseason-Navel oranges is reduced 1.0 million boxes to 126.0 million. This is 11 million boxes or nine percent less than the initial forecast in October. Fruit sizes, which had been projected to be above average, ended the season below the average. Droppage, projected in October to be near the average of the previous ten seasons, ended the season two percentage points higher. Navels, included in the early category, totaled 4.3 million boxes. Not all of the Navels were harvested this season.

VALENCIAS 119.0   MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of the late maturing Valencia oranges remains at 119.0 million boxes. Final month averages of fruit size and droppage, combined with bearing trees and average fruit per tree indicate this forecast. Fruit sizes have been above the ten season average all season and are the third highest compared to the average. Droppage has also been low all season. In October, an average rate of 13 percent was assumed. The final observed rate was 11.2 percent, the second lowest on record.

  Harvest has started with an estimated 33.6 million boxes recorded through April 4. Weekly harvest amounts now exceed eight million boxes.

  The all orange projection of yield of FCOJ is increased from 1.53 gallons per box to 1.54. The early- mid portion is final as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at 1.45 gallons per box. The increase is indicated in the Valencia portion which is raised from 1.62 gallons per box to 1.64. Processors report excellent internal qualities of the Valencia crop.

  The total grapefruit forecast for certified utilization (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and other use) is continued at 40.0 million boxes, unchanged since January. If realized, the total grapefruit crop for recorded utilization will be three percent more than the 38.7 million boxes harvested last season and the third smallest crop in the past 20 seasons.

  The route survey (Row Count), conducted on March 29-30, 2004, indicates that 78 percent of the grapefruit groves have been picked, and estimated utilization equals 80 percent of the forecast. Analysis of the remaining rows and historic productivity at the current harvest level is a supportive factor for this forecast.

  The January size and drop survey is considered the “final” indicator for the season, when the loss of samples has been minimal. The follow-up fruit size and drop surveys for the remaining grapefruit sample groves indicates that final utilization will equal current projections.

  The forecast of white varieties, including seedy, is continued at 16.0 million boxes, one percent less than last season and the smallest combined white grapefruit crop on record. The forecast of colored varieties, at 24.0 million boxes, is seven percent above last season's production but 25 percent below the record 31.9 million boxes of 1999-00.

  Estimated certifications through March 28, 2004, as published by CAC Report No. 25, show 3.6 million boxes of whites remaining and 3.5 million boxes of colored remaining to reach the level of the forecast.

  Estimated utilization of all tangerines is increased to 6.3 million boxes. If attained, this harvest will be 15 percent larger than last season and only 10 percent less than the record crop of 7.0 million boxes in 1999-00.

EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.6 MILLION BOXES

  The final 2003-04 season estimate for recorded utilization of the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is 3.6 million boxes.

HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.7 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Honey tangerines is raised to 2.7 million boxes. The primary indicator influencing the forecast is the row count survey conducted on March 29- 30, 2004. The weighted average number of rows picked is 60 percent, while utilization is already at 2.0 million boxes. If attained, the Honey tangerine production will be the highest on record, surpassing the previous record of 2.65 million boxes in 1999-00.

TEMPLES CONTINUE AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Temples remains at 1.4 million boxes. The Temple forecast has not changed since the original estimate in October 2003. The monthly row count survey shows 83 percent of rows picked, with utilization to the first of April at 1.2 million boxes.

TANGELOS FINAL AT 1.0 MILLION BOXES

  The Tangelo crop is final at 1.0 million boxes, including 225,000 boxes for gift fruit and other use. The most recent row count survey shows only 72 percent of the rows picked this season. Utilization of Tangelos has been trending downward in the past two decades, and this will be the smallest Tangelo crop since the 1964-65 season.

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons
Fruit type (No. groves) test date	Acid		Solids (Brix)		Ratio		Unfinished juice per box		Solids per box
	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04
	Percent		Percent				Pounds		Pounds
	Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
Oranges:
Late (115-119)
Oct 1	2.08	2.04	8.70	8.92	4.25	4.42	49.03	46.39	4.27	4.14
Nov 1	1.67	1.66	9.21	9.56	5.59	5.82	52.33	50.88	4.82	4.87
Dec 1	1.45	1.41	10.06	10.38	7.06	7.44	53.02	53.33	5.33	5.54
Jan 1	1.25	1.27	10.85	11.14	8.76	8.83	54.24	53.16	5.89	5.92
Feb 1	1.21	1.20	11.45	11.90	9.56	10.04	54.39	51.94	6.23	6.18
Mar 1	1.10	1.07	12.27	12.67	11.35	11.92	53.01	52.58	6.50	6.67
Apr 1	0.89	0.96	12.38	12.84	14.03	13.51	53.68	51.31	6.65	6.59
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.

Maturity Test Averages by Areas, April 1, 2004
Fruit type	Groves sampled	Acid	Solids (Brix)	Ratio	Unfinished juice per box	Solids per box
	Number	Percent	Percent		Pounds	Pounds
Oranges:
Late
Indian River Dist.	21	0.94	13.01	13.93	51.81	6.76
Other Areas	98	0.96	12.81	13.42	51.20	6.56

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the March size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period March 18 through 27, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from February measurements
Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers	2002	2003	2004
	- - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
64 and larger	8.5	19.8	11.0
80	24.3	36.9	30.3
100	36.6	32.4	38.5
125	21.6	9.2	16.2
163 and smaller	9.0	1.7	4.0

  The chart below compares the relationship of the March 2004 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in March 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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April Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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