------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS APRIL FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE April 8, 2004 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON -------------------------------------- May 12, 2004 June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004 -------------------------------------- ALL ORANGES NOW 245.0 MILLION BOXES The Florida all orange forecast, released today by the Agricultural Statistics Board of the USDA is decreased 1.0 million boxes to 245.0 million. This is a record by only 1.0 million, surpassing the 244.0 million boxes produced in the 1997-98 season. It is also 42 million or 21 percent greater than last season's harvest of 203.0 million boxes. The reduction is in the Early-midseason-Navel category, an adjustment to the final utilization amount including an allowance of 2.0 million for unrecorded gift fruit and local sales. The Valencia portion remains the same as forecast last month, 119.0 million boxes. In the previous ten seasons, the April all orange forecast has differed from final utilization by an average of 1.4 percent with three seasons above the forecast and seven below. Citrus trees in Florida groves are in excellent condition despite the lack of rainfall in March. Irrigation is being used extensively as trees reached peak bloom in mid to late March. An excellent bloom was reported in all areas. Citrus production, April 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | Mar 10, 2003 Apr 8, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 127,000 126,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,300 1,450 Arizona 270 200 220 260 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 167,520 166,710 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 119,000 119,000 California 19,500 1/ 20,500 15,000 15,000 Texas 210 220 230 230 Arizona 250 270 250 280 Total Valencias 121,960 111,990 134,480 134,510 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 246,000 245,000 California 51,500 61,500 54,000 54,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,530 1,680 Arizona 520 470 470 540 Total All Oranges 283,760 266,540 302,000 301,220 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Revised. EARLY-MIDSEASONS REDUCED TO 126.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Early-midseason-Navel oranges is reduced 1.0 million boxes to 126.0 million. This is 11 million boxes or nine percent less than the initial forecast in October. Fruit sizes, which had been projected to be above average, ended the season below the average. Droppage, projected in October to be near the average of the previous ten seasons, ended the season two percentage points higher. Navels, included in the early category, totaled 4.3 million boxes. Not all of the Navels were harvested this season. Survey components used in the forecast 1/ ------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ------------------------------------------- (1,000) Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 10.9 245 Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129 Valencia 41,572 684 11.2 198 ------------------------------------------- 1/ November survey data is considered final for Navels, December for early-mids, and March for Valencias. VALENCIAS 119.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of the late maturing Valencia oranges remains at 119.0 million boxes. Final month averages of fruit size and droppage, combined with bearing trees and average fruit per tree indicate this forecast. Fruit sizes have been above the ten season average all season and are the third highest compared to the average. Droppage has also been low all season. In October, an average rate of 13 percent was assumed. The final observed rate was 11.2 percent, the second lowest on record. Harvest has started with an estimated 33.6 million boxes recorded through April 4. Weekly harvest amounts now exceed eight million boxes. FCOJ YIELD NOW 1.54 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange projection of yield of FCOJ is increased from 1.53 gallons per box to 1.54. The early- mid portion is final as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at 1.45 gallons per box. The increase is indicated in the Valencia portion which is raised from 1.62 gallons per box to 1.64. Processors report excellent internal qualities of the Valencia crop. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Citrus production, April 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | Mar 10, 2003 Apr 8, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,000 40,000 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 16,000 16,000 Colored 27,800 22,500 24,000 24,000 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,200 5,400 Arizona 160 130 100 100 California 5,900 5,600 5,300 5,400 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 50,600 50,900 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,000 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,200 26,000 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,000 1,000 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 5,900 6,300 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 3,600 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,300 2,700 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,500 2,400 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,000 9,300 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. GRAPEFRUIT 40.0 MILLION BOXES The total grapefruit forecast for certified utilization (including a preseason allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and other use) is continued at 40.0 million boxes, unchanged since January. If realized, the total grapefruit crop for recorded utilization will be three percent more than the 38.7 million boxes harvested last season and the third smallest crop in the past 20 seasons. The route survey (Row Count), conducted on March 29-30, 2004, indicates that 78 percent of the grapefruit groves have been picked, and estimated utilization equals 80 percent of the forecast. Analysis of the remaining rows and historic productivity at the current harvest level is a supportive factor for this forecast. The January size and drop survey is considered the “final” indicator for the season, when the loss of samples has been minimal. The follow-up fruit size and drop surveys for the remaining grapefruit sample groves indicates that final utilization will equal current projections. The forecast of white varieties, including seedy, is continued at 16.0 million boxes, one percent less than last season and the smallest combined white grapefruit crop on record. The forecast of colored varieties, at 24.0 million boxes, is seven percent above last season's production but 25 percent below the record 31.9 million boxes of 1999-00. Estimated certifications through March 28, 2004, as published by CAC Report No. 25, show 3.6 million boxes of whites remaining and 3.5 million boxes of colored remaining to reach the level of the forecast. Survey components used in the forecast 1/ ----------------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- (1,000) White Grapefruit 2/ 3,333 497 11.4 91 Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 12.4 101 ----------------------------------------------------- 1/ January survey data is considered final. 2/ Seedless variety only. ALL TANGERINES RAISED TO 6.3 MILLION BOXES Estimated utilization of all tangerines is increased to 6.3 million boxes. If attained, this harvest will be 15 percent larger than last season and only 10 percent less than the record crop of 7.0 million boxes in 1999-00. EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.6 MILLION BOXES The final 2003-04 season estimate for recorded utilization of the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is 3.6 million boxes. HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.7 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Honey tangerines is raised to 2.7 million boxes. The primary indicator influencing the forecast is the row count survey conducted on March 29- 30, 2004. The weighted average number of rows picked is 60 percent, while utilization is already at 2.0 million boxes. If attained, the Honey tangerine production will be the highest on record, surpassing the previous record of 2.65 million boxes in 1999-00. TEMPLES CONTINUE AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Temples remains at 1.4 million boxes. The Temple forecast has not changed since the original estimate in October 2003. The monthly row count survey shows 83 percent of rows picked, with utilization to the first of April at 1.2 million boxes. TANGELOS FINAL AT 1.0 MILLION BOXES The Tangelo crop is final at 1.0 million boxes, including 225,000 boxes for gift fruit and other use. The most recent row count survey shows only 72 percent of the rows picked this season. Utilization of Tangelos has been trending downward in the past two decades, and this will be the smallest Tangelo crop since the 1964-65 season. ------------------------------------------------------------- April Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Late (115-119) Oct 1 2.08 2.04 8.70 8.92 4.25 4.42 49.03 46.39 4.27 4.14 Nov 1 1.67 1.66 9.21 9.56 5.59 5.82 52.33 50.88 4.82 4.87 Dec 1 1.45 1.41 10.06 10.38 7.06 7.44 53.02 53.33 5.33 5.54 Jan 1 1.25 1.27 10.85 11.14 8.76 8.83 54.24 53.16 5.89 5.92 Feb 1 1.21 1.20 11.45 11.90 9.56 10.04 54.39 51.94 6.23 6.18 Mar 1 1.10 1.07 12.27 12.67 11.35 11.92 53.01 52.58 6.50 6.67 Apr 1 0.89 0.96 12.38 12.84 14.03 13.51 53.68 51.31 6.65 6.59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used. Maturity Test Averages by Areas, April 1, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice Solids sampled (Brix) per box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Late Indian River Dist. 21 0.94 13.01 13.93 51.81 6.76 Other Areas 98 0.96 12.81 13.42 51.20 6.56 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions from the March size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period March 18 through 27, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from March measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 8.5 19.8 11.0 80 24.3 36.9 30.3 100 36.6 32.4 38.5 125 21.6 9.2 16.2 163 and smaller 9.0 1.7 4.0 -------------------------------------------------- The chart below compares the relationship of the March 2004 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in March 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value. [chart: Valencia size frequency] ------------------------------------------------------------- April Forecast 3 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------