The forecast of all oranges, released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is continued at 245.0 million boxes. Comprising the forecast are 126.0 million boxes of early-midseason oranges (including Navels) and 119.0 million boxes of late (Valencia) oranges. If realized, this forecasted all orange crop will be the largest on record, surpassing last season's 203.0 million boxes by 21 percent and slightly more than the 244.0 million boxes utilized in 1997-98. In the past 10 seasons, the May forecast has deviated from actual production by an average of 1.1 percent, with three seasons higher and seven below the final utilization.

  Florida's citrus areas were mostly dry in April with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the state lowering overnight temperatures but bringing very little rainfall the first and third weeks of the month. The last week brought up to five inches in some interior areas. Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the favorable weather of the past several months.

  Forecast of the early-midseason-Navel oranges is final at 126.0 million boxes, almost 13 percent greater than last season but 10 percent below the record 140.0 million box crop of 1997-98. The Navel variety, primarily shipped as fresh fruit, accounted for 4.3 million boxes of the total.

VALENCIAS 119.0 MILLION BOXES

  The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 119.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be a record crop, 14 percent greater than the previous record of 104.0 million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season. It will exceed last season's crop by 28.0 million boxes, or 31 percent.

  A follow-up survey conducted last month supports the final size and drop components used in preparation of the forecast. The row count survey is a reliable forecast indicator at this point of the season. Results of the survey show that harvest has reached 55 percent, lagging behind the past two seasons.

  Harvest is at peak levels, averaging over eight million boxes weekly since late March. Over 98 percent of the Valencias certified during this same period have been used for processing.

  The all orange projection of yield of FCOJ is increased from 1.54 gallons per box to 1.55, the same as projected in October 2003. The early-mid portion is final as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at 1.45 gallons per box. The increase is in the Valencia portion which is producing very high weekly yields in spite of the relatively dry weather in the citrus belt. Valencias are now projected to yield 1.67 gallons per box, increased from 1.64 last month.

  The forecast of all grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and other use) is increased 500,000 boxes to 40.5 million. This is almost five percent more than the 38.7 million boxes utilized last season but still the third smallest crop in the most recent 20 seasons. The increase is in the colored grapefruit category, now forecast at 24.5 million boxes. The white category remains forecast at 16.0 million boxes.

  The row count survey, conducted April 28-29, indicates that 93 percent of the rows have been harvested statewide compared to 95 percent last season to the same time period. The survey indicates that 95 percent of the white grapefruit and 91 percent of the colored varieties have been harvested.

  Fresh shipments of grapefruit have been declining since early April with export movement almost complete for the season. Total fresh shipments are higher at this time than the previous season, indicating the first seasonal increase since the 1996-97 season. Cool temperatures this spring have prolonged the usability of grapefruit and, combined with moderately strong demand for fruit for processing, should lead to complete harvest of the grapefruit crop.

  The forecast of all tangerines is increased 200,000 boxes to 6.5 million. This is 18 percent more than last season's 5.5 million boxes and seven percent less than the record 1999-00 crop of 7.0 million boxes. The increase is in the Honey category, now forecast at 2.9 million boxes.

EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.6 MILLION BOXES

  The final estimate of utilization of the early season tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is 3.6 million boxes, 20 percent more than last season's harvest.

HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.9 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Honey tangerines is increased 200,000 boxes to 2.9 million. If realized, this crop will surpass the previous record of the 1979-80 season by almost four percent when 2.8 million boxes were harvested.

  The row count survey indicates that about 84 percent of the rows are harvested. Combined with estimated utilization to the same date, the increase in the forecast to the record level is indicated. Estimated utilization to the first of the month, including 100,000 boxes of local and gift fruit usage, is 2.8 million boxes with weekly movement declining.

TEMPLES CONTINUE AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES

  The forecast of Temples, unchanged since the October forecast, is continued at 1.4 million boxes. The row count survey indicates some rows are unharvested, but usability of the remaining crops is uncertain. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is at the forecast level.

TANGELOS FINAL AT 1.0 MILLION BOXES

  Tangelo utilization is complete with only 1.0 million boxes recorded. This includes an allowance for gift fruit and local sales of over 200,000 boxes. This is the smallest crop harvested since the 1.0 million boxes in the 1964-65 season. Surveys indicate about 25 percent of the rows unharvested.

May Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons
Fruit type (No. groves) test date	Acid		Solids (Brix)		Ratio		Unfinished juice per box		Solids per box
	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04	2002-03	2003-04
	Percent		Percent				Pounds		Pounds
	Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
Oranges:
Late (59-68)
Oct 1	2.09	2.07	8.72	8.93	4.24	4.37	48.72	46.28	4.25	4.14
Nov 1	1.69	1.66	9.18	9.59	5.53	5.83	51.92	51.03	4.77	4.90
Dec 1	1.48	1.43	10.07	10.37	6.95	7.39	52.85	53.36	5.32	5.54
Jan 1	1.28	1.28	10.81	11.17	8.55	8.79	54.53	53.29	5.90	5.96
Feb 1	1.23	1.21	11.41	11.94	9.37	9.97	53.71	51.77	6.14	6.18
Mar 1	1.13	1.09	12.28	12.77	11.07	11.81	52.38	52.59	6.44	6.72
Apr 1	0.90	0.97	12.40	12.87	13.93	13.44	53.47	51.30	6.65	6.60
May 1	0.79	0.87	12.49	13.23	16.02	15.40	52.91	52.74	6.62	6.99
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used.

Maturity Test Averages by Areas, May 1, 2004
Fruit type	Groves sampled	Acid	Solids (Brix)	Ratio	Unfinished juice per box	Solids per box
	Number	Percent	Percent		Pounds	Pounds
Oranges:
Late
Indian River Dist.	17	0.88	13.70	15.61	54.11	7.43
Other Areas	51	0.86	13.07	15.32	52.29	6.84

FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

  Size frequency distributions from the April size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period April 15 through 26, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons.

Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from April measurements
Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers	2002	2003	2004
	- - - Percent - - -
Valencia oranges:
64 and larger	10.1	27.4	11.7
80	23.8	34.8	30.5
100	33.8	27.6	38.1
125	22.4	8.4	16.2
163 and smaller	9.9	1.8	3.5

  The chart below compares the relationship of the April 2004 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in April 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value.

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May Forecast

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service

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