------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS MAY FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE May 12, 2004 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON -------------------------------------- May 12, 2004 June 11, 2004 -------------------------------------- ALL ORANGES REMAIN AT 245.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all oranges, released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is continued at 245.0 million boxes. Comprising the forecast are 126.0 million boxes of early-midseason oranges (including Navels) and 119.0 million boxes of late (Valencia) oranges. If realized, this forecasted all orange crop will be the largest on record, surpassing last season's 203.0 million boxes by 21 percent and slightly more than the 244.0 million boxes utilized in 1997-98. In the past 10 seasons, the May forecast has deviated from actual production by an average of 1.1 percent, with three seasons higher and seven below the final utilization. Florida's citrus areas were mostly dry in April with cool nighttime temperatures and moderate to warm days. Several cold fronts passed through the state lowering overnight temperatures but bringing very little rainfall the first and third weeks of the month. The last week brought up to five inches in some interior areas. Citrus trees in all areas are in excellent condition following the favorable weather of the past several months. Citrus production, May 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2001-02 2002-03 | Apr 8, 2004 May 12, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 126,000 126,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,450 1,450 Arizona 270 200 260 260 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 166,710 166,710 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 119,000 119,000 California 19,500 20,500 15,000 15,000 Texas 210 220 230 230 Arizona 250 270 280 280 Total Valencias 121,960 111,990 134,510 134,510 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 245,000 245,000 California 51,500 61,500 54,000 54,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,680 1,680 Arizona 520 470 540 540 Total All Oranges 283,760 266,540 301,220 301,220 ---------------------------------------------------------------- EARLY-MIDS FINAL AT 126.0 MILLION BOXES Forecast of the early-midseason-Navel oranges is final at 126.0 million boxes, almost 13 percent greater than last season but 10 percent below the record 140.0 million box crop of 1997-98. The Navel variety, primarily shipped as fresh fruit, accounted for 4.3 million boxes of the total. VALENCIAS 119.0 MILLION BOXES The Valencia forecast is unchanged at 119.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be a record crop, 14 percent greater than the previous record of 104.0 million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season. It will exceed last season's crop by 28.0 million boxes, or 31 percent. A follow-up survey conducted last month supports the final size and drop components used in preparation of the forecast. The row count survey is a reliable forecast indicator at this point of the season. Results of the survey show that harvest has reached 55 percent, lagging behind the past two seasons. Harvest is at peak levels, averaging over eight million boxes weekly since late March. Over 98 percent of the Valencias certified during this same period have been used for processing. Survey components used in the forecast 1/ ------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ------------------------------------------- (1,000) Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 10.9 245 Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129 Valencia 41,572 684 11.2 198 ------------------------------------------- 1/ November survey data is considered final for Navels, December for early-mids, and March for Valencias. FCOJ YIELD NOW 1.55 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange projection of yield of FCOJ is increased from 1.54 gallons per box to 1.55, the same as projected in October 2003. The early-mid portion is final as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association at 1.45 gallons per box. The increase is in the Valencia portion which is producing very high weekly yields in spite of the relatively dry weather in the citrus belt. Valencias are now projected to yield 1.67 gallons per box, increased from 1.64 last month. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Citrus production, May 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2001-02 2002-03 | Apr 8, 2004 May 12, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,000 40,500 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 16,000 16,000 Colored 27,800 22,500 24,000 24,500 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,400 5,400 Arizona 160 130 100 100 California 5,900 5,600 5,400 5,400 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 50,900 51,400 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,000 26,000 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,000 1,000 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,300 6,500 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 3,600 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,700 2,900 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,400 2,400 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,300 9,500 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. GRAPEFRUIT NOW 40.5 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes for gift fruit and other use) is increased 500,000 boxes to 40.5 million. This is almost five percent more than the 38.7 million boxes utilized last season but still the third smallest crop in the most recent 20 seasons. The increase is in the colored grapefruit category, now forecast at 24.5 million boxes. The white category remains forecast at 16.0 million boxes. The row count survey, conducted April 28-29, indicates that 93 percent of the rows have been harvested statewide compared to 95 percent last season to the same time period. The survey indicates that 95 percent of the white grapefruit and 91 percent of the colored varieties have been harvested. Fresh shipments of grapefruit have been declining since early April with export movement almost complete for the season. Total fresh shipments are higher at this time than the previous season, indicating the first seasonal increase since the 1996-97 season. Cool temperatures this spring have prolonged the usability of grapefruit and, combined with moderately strong demand for fruit for processing, should lead to complete harvest of the grapefruit crop. Survey components used in the forecast 1/ ----------------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- (1,000) White Grapefruit 2/ 3,333 497 11.4 91 Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 12.4 101 ----------------------------------------------------- 1/ January survey data is considered final. 2/ Seedless variety only. ALL TANGERINES RAISED TO 6.5 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all tangerines is increased 200,000 boxes to 6.5 million. This is 18 percent more than last season's 5.5 million boxes and seven percent less than the record 1999-00 crop of 7.0 million boxes. The increase is in the Honey category, now forecast at 2.9 million boxes. EARLY TANGERINES FINAL AT 3.6 MILLION BOXES The final estimate of utilization of the early season tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst varieties) is 3.6 million boxes, 20 percent more than last season's harvest. HONEY TANGERINES INCREASED TO 2.9 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Honey tangerines is increased 200,000 boxes to 2.9 million. If realized, this crop will surpass the previous record of the 1979-80 season by almost four percent when 2.8 million boxes were harvested. The row count survey indicates that about 84 percent of the rows are harvested. Combined with estimated utilization to the same date, the increase in the forecast to the record level is indicated. Estimated utilization to the first of the month, including 100,000 boxes of local and gift fruit usage, is 2.8 million boxes with weekly movement declining. TEMPLES CONTINUE AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES The forecast of Temples, unchanged since the October forecast, is continued at 1.4 million boxes. The row count survey indicates some rows are unharvested, but usability of the remaining crops is uncertain. Estimated utilization to the first of the month is at the forecast level. TANGELOS FINAL AT 1.0 MILLION BOXES Tangelo utilization is complete with only 1.0 million boxes recorded. This includes an allowance for gift fruit and local sales of over 200,000 boxes. This is the smallest crop harvested since the 1.0 million boxes in the 1964-65 season. Surveys indicate about 25 percent of the rows unharvested. ------------------------------------------------------------- May Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Late (59-68) Oct 1 2.09 2.07 8.72 8.93 4.24 4.37 48.72 46.28 4.25 4.14 Nov 1 1.69 1.66 9.18 9.59 5.53 5.83 51.92 51.03 4.77 4.90 Dec 1 1.48 1.43 10.07 10.37 6.95 7.39 52.85 53.36 5.32 5.54 Jan 1 1.28 1.28 10.81 11.17 8.55 8.79 54.53 53.29 5.90 5.96 Feb 1 1.23 1.21 11.41 11.94 9.37 9.97 53.71 51.77 6.14 6.18 Mar 1 1.13 1.09 12.28 12.77 11.07 11.81 52.38 52.59 6.44 6.72 Apr 1 0.90 0.97 12.40 12.87 13.93 13.44 53.47 51.30 6.65 6.60 May 1 0.79 0.87 12.49 13.23 16.02 15.40 52.91 52.74 6.62 6.99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and nor restrictions are used. Maturity Test Averages by Areas, April 1, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice Solids sampled (Brix) per box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Late Indian River Dist. 17 0.88 13.70 15.61 54.11 7.43 Other Areas 51 0.86 13.07 15.32 52.29 6.84 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions from the April size survey are shown in the table below. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. Fruit sizes were measured on trees in sample groves during the period April 15 through 26, 2004. Comparable sizes for 2002 and 2003 are also shown. These measurements are of fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from March measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 10.1 27.4 11.7 80 23.8 34.8 30.5 100 33.8 27.6 38.1 125 22.4 8.4 16.2 163 and smaller 9.9 1.8 3.5 -------------------------------------------------- The chart below compares the relationship of the April 2004 Valencia orange fruit size measurements with those taken in April 2003. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range except for the smallest value. [chart: Valencia size frequency] ------------------------------------------------------------- May Forecast 3 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------