Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
2
CITRUS
JUNE FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS
|
FORECAST DATE 2003-04 SEASON July 12, 2004 |
The forecast of all oranges for certified utilization is
continued at 245.0 million boxes. This forecast, released
today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, projects a
record crop, 1.0 million boxes more than the 244.0 million
boxes produced in the 1997-98 season. The forecast is
comprised of the early-midseason portion at 126.0 million
boxes and the Valencia portion at 119.0 million boxes. The
monthly row count survey indicates the current forecast level
with 87 percent of the Valencia rows harvested. Also, a
survey of processors indicates sufficient fruit expected to
attain the forecast. In the previous ten seasons, the June
forecast has differed from final production by an average of
less than one percent with four seasons above the production
and six below.
|
Citrus Production, June 1, 2004 Forecasts by Varieties and States, with Comparisons |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crop and State | Production | Forecast | ||
| 2001-02 | 2002-03 | May 12, 2004 | Jun 10, 2004 | |
| - - - 1,000 boxes - - - | ||||
| Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 128,000 | 112,000 | 126,000 | 126,000 |
| California | 32,000 | 41,000 | 39,000 | 39,000 |
| Texas | 1,530 | 1,350 | 1,450 | 1,450 |
| Arizona | 270 | 200 | 260 | 260 |
| Total Above Varieties | 161,800 | 154,550 | 166,710 | 166,710 |
| Valencias: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 102,000 | 91,000 | 119,000 | 119,000 |
| California | 19,500 | 20,500 | 15,000 | 15,000 |
| Texas | 210 | 220 | 230 | 230 |
| Arizona | 250 | 270 | 280 | 280 |
| Total Valencias | 121,960 | 111,990 | 134,510 | 134,510 |
| All Oranges: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 230,000 | 203,000 | 245,000 | 245,000 |
| California | 51,500 | 61,500 | 54,000 | 54,000 |
| Texas | 1,740 | 1,570 | 1,680 | 1,680 |
| Arizona | 520 | 470 | 540 | 540 |
| Total All Oranges | 283,760 | 266,540 | 301,220 | 301,220 |
| Grapefruit: | ||||
| FLORIDA-All | 46,700 | 38,700 | 40,500 | 40,800 |
| White 1/ | 18,900 | 16,200 | 16,000 | 15,900 |
| Colored | 27,800 | 22,500 | 24,500 | 24,900 |
| Texas | 5,900 | 5,650 | 5,400 | 5,400 |
| Arizona | 160 | 130 | 100 | 100 |
| California | 5,900 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,400 |
| Total Grapefruit | 58,660 | 50,080 | 51,400 | 51,700 |
| Lemons: | ||||
| California | 18,300 | 24,000 | 23,000 | 23,000 |
| Arizona | 2,800 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Total Lemons | 21,100 | 27,000 | 26,000 | 26,000 |
| Limes: Florida | 150 | 2/ | 2/ | 2/ |
| Temples: Florida | 1,550 | 1,300 | 1,400 | 1,400 |
| Tangelos: Florida | 2,150 | 2,350 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| K-Early: Florida | 30 | 2/ | 2/ | 2/ |
| Tangerines: | ||||
| FLORIDA-All | 6,600 | 5,500 | 6,500 | 6,500 |
| Early 3/ | 4,350 | 3,000 | 3,600 | 3,600 |
| Honey | 2,250 | 2,500 | 2,900 | 2,900 |
| California 4/ | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,400 |
| Arizona 4/ | 620 | 430 | 600 | 600 |
| Total Tangerines | 9,420 | 8,430 | 9,500 | 9,500 |
|
1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. |
||||
The all grapefruit forecast is increased by a total of
300,000 boxes to 40.8 million boxes. Adjustments were
made in both categories with colored increased by 400,000
boxes and whites decreased by 100,000 boxes. Harvest of
whites is relatively complete at 98 percent harvested but the
row count survey indicates four percent of colored grapefruit
remain to be harvested. It is expected that colored grapefruit
will continue to be picked for processing and should lead to
an almost complete harvest.
SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE
Specialty type harvesting is complete for the season.
The final utilization of 1.4 million boxes of Temples is
unchanged since the October forecast. The total utilization
for Temples is eight percent more than the previous season's
crop. Tangelo utilization of 1.0 million boxes is the smallest
crop harvested since the 1964-65 season. Final utilization of
the Early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst) totaled 3.6
million boxes. The Honey portion of 2.9 million boxes
surpassed the previous record of 2.8 million boxes set in
1979-80.
FCOJ NOW 1.56 GALLONS PER BOX
The all orange FCOJ yield projection is increased to
1.56 gallons per box from 1.55 projected last month. The
early-mid portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box and the
Valencia portion is now projected at 1.70 gallons.
|
Unadjusted Maturity Tests, June 1, Valencia (Late) Oranges: Averages of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, by seasons, 1984-85 through 2003-04 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season |
Groves sampled |
Acid |
Solids (Brix) |
Ratio |
Unfinished juice per box |
Solids per box |
| Number | Percent | Percent | Pounds | Pounds | ||
| 1984-85 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1985-86 | 21 | 0.79 | 12.13 | 15.44 | 52.76 | 6.42 |
| 1986-87 | 17 | 0.78 | 12.27 | 15.85 | 55.42 | 6.81 |
| 1987-88 | 26 | 0.88 | 13.08 | 14.97 | 55.75 | 7.30 |
| 1988-89 | 27 | 0.81 | 13.17 | 16.53 | 56.00 | 7.39 |
|
1989-90 |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1990-91 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1991-92 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1992-93 | 15 | 0.84 | 13.88 | 16.74 | 55.20 | 7.68 |
| 1993-94 | 23 | 0.78 | 13.22 | 17.31 | 53.64 | 7.23 |
|
1994-95 |
10 | 0.72 | 12.87 | 18.09 | 56.26 | 7.24 |
| 1995-96 | 17 | 0.82 | 12.96 | 16.14 | 53.52 | 6.94 |
| 1996-97 | 23 | 0.76 | 13.34 | 17.92 | 54.01 | 7.21 |
| 1997-98 | 10 | 0.71 | 13.74 | 19.72 | 54.57 | 7.52 |
| 1998-99 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
|
1999-00 |
27 | 0.81 | 13.61 | 16.96 | 51.05 | 6.96 |
| 2000-01 | 38 | 0.83 | 12.90 | 15.87 | 53.83 | 6.96 |
| 2001-02 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2002-03 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2003-04 | 20 | 0.68 | 13.10 | 19.67 | 52.79 | 6.95 |