------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS JUNE FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS June 10, 2004 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- FORECAST DATE 2003-04 SEASON July 12, 2004 -------------------------------------- ORANGES REMAIN 245.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all oranges for certified utilization is continued at 245.0 million boxes. This forecast, released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, projects a record crop, 1.0 million boxes more than the 244.0 million boxes produced in the 1997-98 season. The forecast is comprised of the early-midseason portion at 126.0 million boxes and the Valencia portion at 119.0 million boxes. The monthly row count survey indicates the current forecast level with 87 percent of the Valencia rows harvested. Also, a survey of processors indicates sufficient fruit expected to attain the forecast. In the previous ten seasons, the June forecast has differed from final production by an average of less than one percent with four seasons above the production and six below. Citrus Production, June 1, 2004 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | May 12,2004 Jun 10,2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 126,000 126,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,450 1,450 Arizona 270 200 260 260 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 166,710 166,710 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 119,000 119,000 California 19,500 20,500 15,000 15,000 Texas 210 220 230 230 Arizona 250 270 280 280 Total Valencias 121,960 111,990 134,510 134,510 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 245,000 245,000 California 51,500 61,500 54,000 54,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,680 1,680 Arizona 520 470 540 540 Total All Oranges 283,760 266,540 301,220 301,220 Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,500 40,800 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 16,000 15,900 Colored 27,800 22,500 24,500 24,900 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,400 5,400 Arizona 160 130 100 100 California 5,900 5,600 5,400 5,400 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 51,400 51,700 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,000 26,000 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,000 1,000 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,500 6,500 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 3,600 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,900 2,900 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,400 2,400 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,500 9,500 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. ALL GRAPEFRUIT NOW 40.8 MILLION BOXES The all grapefruit forecast is increased by a total of 300,000 boxes to 40.8 million boxes. Adjustments were made in both categories with colored increased by 400,000 boxes and whites decreased by 100,000 boxes. Harvest of whites is relatively complete at 98 percent harvested but the row count survey indicates four percent of colored grapefruit remain to be harvested. It is expected that colored grapefruit will continue to be picked for processing and should lead to an almost complete harvest. SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE Specialty type harvesting is complete for the season. The final utilization of 1.4 million boxes of Temples is unchanged since the October forecast. The total utilization for Temples is eight percent more than the previous season's crop. Tangelo utilization of 1.0 million boxes is the smallest crop harvested since the 1964-65 season. Final utilization of the Early tangerines ( Fallglo and Sunburst) totaled 3.6 million boxes. The Honey portion of 2.9 million boxes surpassed the previous record of 2.8 million boxes set in 1979-80. FCOJ NOW 1.56 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange FCOJ yield projection is increased to 1.56 gallons per box from 1.55 projected last month. The early-mid portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is now projected at 1.70 gallons. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests, June 1, Valencia (Late) Oranges: Averages of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, by seasons, 1984-85 through 2003-04 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Season Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice Solids sampled (Brix) per box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds 1984-85 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1985-86 21 0.79 12.13 15.44 52.76 6.42 1986-87 17 0.78 12.27 15.85 55.42 6.81 1987-88 26 0.88 13.08 14.97 55.75 7.30 1988-89 27 0.81 13.17 16.53 56.00 7.39 1989-90 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1990-91 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1991-92 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1992-93 15 0.84 13.88 16.74 55.20 7.68 1993-94 23 0.78 13.22 17.31 53.64 7.23 1994-95 10 0.72 12.87 18.09 56.26 7.24 1995-96 17 0.82 12.96 16.14 53.52 6.94 1996-97 23 0.76 13.34 17.92 54.01 7.21 1997-98 10 0.71 13.74 19.72 54.57 7.52 1998-99 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1999-00 27 0.81 13.61 16.96 51.05 6.96 2000-01 38 0.83 12.90 15.87 53.83 6.96 2001-02 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2002-03 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2003-04 20 0.68 13.10 19.67 52.79 6.95 ------------------------------------------------------------- June Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------