| The first forecast of the 2004-05 season will be released at 8:30 A.M. on October 12, 2004 |
The forecast of all oranges for utilization, released today
by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is lowered 3.0
million boxes to 242.0 million boxes. The decrease is in the
Valencia portion which is now forecast at 116.0 million
boxes. Estimated utilization through the end of June plus
expected usage through the remainder of the season and an
allowance for non-certified fruit total to the forecast.
The early-midseason-Navel forecast remains at 126.0
million boxes which includes 4.3 million boxes of Navels.
This total early-midseason-Navel utilization is 13 percent
more than last season but 10 percent below the record 140.0
million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season. The Valencia
forecast is a record amount, 27 percent more than last season
and 12 percent more than the previous record of 104.0
million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season.
|
Citrus Production, July 1, 2004 Forecasts by Varieties and States, with Comparisons |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crop and State | Production | Forecast | ||
| 2001-02 | 2002-03 | Jun 10, 2004 | Jul 12, 2004 | |
| - - - 1,000 boxes - - - | ||||
| Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 128,000 | 112,000 | 126,000 | 126,000 |
| California | 32,000 | 41,000 | 39,000 | 38,000 |
| Texas | 1,530 | 1,350 | 1,450 | 1,420 |
| Arizona | 270 | 200 | 260 | 300 |
| Total Above Varieties | 161,800 | 154,550 | 166,710 | 165,720 |
| Valencias: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 102,000 | 91,000 | 119,000 | 116,000 |
| California | 19,500 | 20,500 | 15,000 | 13,000 |
| Texas | 210 | 220 | 230 | 230 |
| Arizona | 250 | 270 | 280 | 170 |
| Total Valencias | 121,960 | 111,990 | 134,510 | 129,400 |
| All Oranges: | ||||
| FLORIDA | 230,000 | 203,000 | 245,000 | 242,000 |
| California | 51,500 | 61,500 | 54,000 | 51,000 |
| Texas | 1,740 | 1,570 | 1,680 | 1,650 |
| Arizona | 520 | 470 | 540 | 470 |
| Total All Oranges | 283,760 | 266,540 | 301,220 | 295,120 |
| Grapefruit: | ||||
| FLORIDA-All | 46,700 | 38,700 | 40,800 | 40,800 |
| White 1/ | 18,900 | 16,200 | 15,900 | 15,900 |
| Colored | 27,800 | 22,500 | 24,900 | 24,900 |
| Texas | 5,900 | 5,650 | 5,400 | 5,700 |
| Arizona | 160 | 130 | 100 | 140 |
| California | 5,900 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,400 |
| Total Grapefruit | 58,660 | 50,080 | 51,700 | 52,040 |
| Lemons: | ||||
| California | 18,300 | 24,000 | 23,000 | 18,000 |
| Arizona | 2,800 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Total Lemons | 21,100 | 27,000 | 26,000 | 21,000 |
| Limes: Florida | 150 | 2/ | 2/ | 2/ |
| Temples: Florida | 1,550 | 1,300 | 1,400 | 1,400 |
| Tangelos: Florida | 2,150 | 2,350 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
| K-Early: Florida | 30 | 2/ | 2/ | 2/ |
| Tangerines: | ||||
| FLORIDA-All | 6,600 | 5,500 | 6,500 | 6,500 |
| Early 3/ | 4,350 | 3,000 | 3,600 | 3,600 |
| Honey | 2,250 | 2,500 | 2,900 | 2,900 |
| California 4/ | 2,200 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,400 |
| Arizona 4/ | 620 | 430 | 600 | 690 |
| Total Tangerines | 9,420 | 8,430 | 9,500 | 9,590 |
|
1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. |
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The all grapefruit forecast remains at 40.8 million
boxes, five percent more than harvested in the previous
season but 13 percent less than in the 2001-02 season.
Although the white grapefruit portion is down from 16.2
million boxes last season to 15.9 million this season, the
colored portion is higher at 24.9 million boxes this season
versus 22.5 million in 2002-03. Exports of colored
grapefruit increased over the previous season and about 1.5
million more boxes of the colored varieties were processed.
SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE
Harvest of specialty crops is complete for the season.
Only the tangelo portion is less than last season, 1.0 million
boxes compared to 2.35 million the previous season.
Temple harvest finished the season at 1.4 million boxes, or
100,000 boxes more than last season. Tangerine harvest
also was higher with 3.6 million boxes of the early varieties
(Fallglo and Sunburst) and a record 2.9 million boxes of
Honey tangerines.
FCOJ 1.56 GALLONS PER BOX
The all orange FCOJ yield, as reported by the Florida
Citrus Processors Association, continues projected at 1.56
gallons per box. The early-mid portion is final at 1.45
gallons per box and the Valencia portion is now projected to
yield 1.69 gallons per box. Harvest continues with most of
the remaining volume destined for chilled and fresh
squeezed juice.
FORECAST COMPONENTS OF PRODUCTION FROM OBJECTIVE SURVEYS
The table shows the production components used
for the 2003-04 forecast season. Bearing trees are
estimated at the beginning of each forecast season using
the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory with an
allowance for expected attrition. Revisions are made to
the historic series where applicable.
Fruit per tree is the weighted average obtained from
the annual Limb Count Survey. This survey is conducted
during a two-month period beginning in late July.
Survey averages for each tree age group within an area
are weighted by the estimated number of bearing trees
for each age group.
Fruit size measurements and drop observations are
obtained from monthly size and drop surveys. The
average drop percentages are from the "cut-off" month
survey which varies by variety according to the usual
harvest period. Average fruit sizes were also obtained
from the same survey period but have been converted in
the table to estimated number of fruit needed to fill a
box.
These four factors are the primary components used
in the initial October forecast and in following months
up to the "cut-off" for each fruit type. The first two have
the greatest influence on the forecast.
