------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS JULY FORECAST FORECAST COMPONENTS July 12, 2004 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------- The first forecast of the 2004-05 season will be released at 8:30 A.M. on October 12, 2004 --------------------------------------------------------- ORANGES NOW 242.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all oranges for utilization, released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is lowered 3.0 million boxes to 242.0 million boxes. The decrease is in the Valencia portion which is now forecast at 116.0 million boxes. Estimated utilization through the end of June plus expected usage through the remainder of the season and an allowance for non-certified fruit total to the forecast. The early-midseason-Navel forecast remains at 126.0 million boxes which includes 4.3 million boxes of Navels. This total early-midseason-Navel utilization is 13 percent more than last season but 10 percent below the record 140.0 million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season. The Valencia forecast is a record amount, 27 percent more than last season and 12 percent more than the previous record of 104.0 million boxes harvested in the 1997-98 season. -------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus production, July 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons Crop and Production Forecast State 2001-02 2002-03 Jun 10, 2004 Jul 12, 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 126,000 126,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 38,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,450 1,420 Arizona 270 200 260 300 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 166,710 165,720 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 119,000 116,000 California 19,500 20,500 15,000 13,000 Texas 210 220 230 230 Arizona 250 270 280 170 Total Valencias 121,960 111,990 134,510 129,400 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 245,000 242,000 California 51,500 61,500 54,000 51,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,680 1,650 Arizona 520 470 540 470 Total All Oranges 283,760 266,540 301,220 295,120 Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,800 40,800 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 15,900 15,900 Colored 27,800 22,500 24,900 24,900 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,400 5,700 Arizona 160 130 100 140 California 5,900 5,600 5,400 5,400 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 51,700 52,040 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 18,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,000 21,000 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,000 1,000 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,500 6,500 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 3,600 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,900 2,900 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,400 2,400 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 690 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,500 9,590 ------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. ------------------------------------------------------------- ALL GRAPEFRUIT 40.8 MILLION BOXES The all grapefruit forecast remains at 40.8 million boxes, five percent more than harvested in the previous season but 13 percent less than in the 2001-02 season. Although the white grapefruit portion is down from 16.2 million boxes last season to 15.9 million this season, the colored portion is higher at 24.9 million boxes this season versus 22.5 million in 2002-03. Exports of colored grapefruit increased over the previous season and about 1.5 million more boxes of the colored varieties were processed. SPECIALTY TYPES COMPLETE Harvest of specialty crops is complete for the season. Only the tangelo portion is less than last season, 1.0 million boxes compared to 2.35 million the previous season. Temple harvest finished the season at 1.4 million boxes, or 100,000 boxes more than last season. Tangerine harvest also was higher with 3.6 million boxes of the early varieties (Fallglo and Sunburst) and a record 2.9 million boxes of Honey tangerines. FCOJ 1.56 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange FCOJ yield, as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association, continues projected at 1.56 gallons per box. The early-mid portion is final at 1.45 gallons per box and the Valencia portion is now projected to yield 1.69 gallons per box. Harvest continues with most of the remaining volume destined for chilled and fresh squeezed juice. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FORECAST COMPONENTS OF PRODUCTION FROM OBJECTIVE SURVEYS The table shows the production components used for the 2003-04 forecast season. Bearing trees are estimated at the beginning of each forecast season using the most recent Commercial Citrus Inventory with an allowance for expected attrition. Revisions are made to the historic series where applicable. Fruit per tree is the weighted average obtained from the annual Limb Count Survey. This survey is conducted during a two-month period beginning in late July. Survey averages for each tree age group within an area are weighted by the estimated number of bearing trees for each age group. Fruit size measurements and drop observations are obtained from monthly size and drop surveys. The average drop percentages are from the "cut-off" month survey which varies by variety according to the usual harvest period. Average fruit sizes were also obtained from the same survey period but have been converted in the table to estimated number of fruit needed to fill a box. These four factors are the primary components used in the initial October forecast and in following months up to the "cut-off" for each fruit type. The first two have the greatest influence on the forecast. [Equation: Florida citrus forecast model] -------------------------------------------------- Sample survey Fruit Number averages type bearing Fruit Fruit and trees per Percent per crop year (millions) tree drop 1/ box 1/ -------------------------------------------------- EARLY-MID ORANGES 2/ 1999-00 35.982 1,036 8 236 2000-01 35.694 1,125 6 269 2001-02 34.177 1,148 9 259 2002-03 34.042 950 13 225 2003-04 32.161 1,236 11 245 NAVEL ORANGES 1999-00 2.853 348 15 131 2000-01 2.752 384 12 137 2001-02 2.439 464 11 136 2002-03 2.313 454 12 133 2003-04 2.158 379 9 129 VALENCIA ORANGES 1999-00 39.883 598 11 205 2000-01 41.119 625 12 213 2001-02 40.978 640 13 211 2002-03 41.682 524 20 181 2003-04 41.572 684 11 198 WHITE SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT 1999-00 4.337 3/ 479 3/ 10 89 2000-01 4.090 481 8 93 2001-02 3.970 530 10 96 2002-03 3.784 398 9 79 2003-04 3.333 497 11 91 COLORED SEEDLESS GRAPEFRUIT 1999-00 7.654 3/ 431 3/ 13 95 2000-01 7.374 476 8 101 2001-02 6.728 522 11 105 2002-03 6.352 387 12 87 2003-04 5.461 503 12 101 -------------------------------------------------- 1/ Averages at cut-off month--January 1 for Early-mids, December 1 for Navels, April 1 for Valencias, and February 1 for grapefruit. 2/ Excludes Navels. 3/ Hurricane survey adjustments. ------------------------------------------------------------- July Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------