------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS NOVEMBER FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE November 12, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON December 11, 2003 January 12, 2004 February 10, 2004 March 10, 2004 April 8, 2004 May 12, 2004 June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004 ------------------------------------- ORANGES RECORD 252.0 MILLION BOXES The October 1 forecasts for all states are repeated in this report since no November forecasts are made. The Florida all orange forecast is 24 percent more than the 203.0 million boxes produced last season and three percent more than the former record high 244.0 million boxes in the 1997-98 season. During the previous 10 seasons, the all orange forecast has differed from final recorded utilization by an average of 3.6 percent. Seasonal differences range from 9.4 percent below in 1999-00 to 7.5 percent above in 2000-01. October forecasts in four of the 10 seasons have been above and six below final production. Although bearing trees numbers are estimated to be three percent less than last season, average fruit per tree (fruit set) is up over 28 percent, reflecting the heavy bloom period and excellent weather conditions this year. The procedures used in all forecasts are identical with past seasons. Citrus production, October 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons -------------------------------------------------------- Production Forecast Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 128,000 112,000 137,000 California 35,500 32,000 41,000 39,000 Texas 2,000 1,530 1,350 1,300 Arizona 480 270 200 220 Total Above Varieties 165,980 161,800 154,550 177,520 Valencias: FLORIDA 95,300 102,000 91,000 115,000 California 19,000 19,500 21,000 20,000 Texas 235 210 220 250 Arizona 420 250 270 250 Total Valencias 114,955 121,960 112,490 135,500 All Oranges: FLORIDA 223,300 230,000 203,000 252,000 California 54,500 51,500 62,000 59,000 Texas 2,235 1,740 1,570 1,550 Arizona 900 520 470 470 Total All Oranges 280,935 283,760 267,040 313,020 -------------------------------------------------------- FCOJ YIELD 1.55 GALLONS PER BOX Since there are no November forecasts or projections, the forecast for FCOJ yield remains at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix equivalent. Maturity test results on fruit collected October 27-28 with comparisons to the previous season are presented on page three. All averages are unadjusted as in prior seasons and provide a measure of change occurring in fruit still on the trees. The tests do not reflect the same levels of maturity as those being reported by processors from plant tests or plant recovery rates because the latter relate to fruit that have been harvested. The final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association for last season was 1.54 gallons per box. The record high yield occurred in the 1998-99 season at 1.63 gallons. CROP PROGRESS Unlike the previous month, October weather turned dry and slightly cooler earlier in the month. Rainfall totals for the month were near normal levels with most areas receiving light amounts throughout the month. Cumulative amounts for the year are still above normal levels. Temperatures turned warmer later in the month with highs in the high 80's. Growers returned to irrigation on a regular basis during the last half of the month to maintain surface soil moisture levels. Drying winds the last of the month also led to slight dehydration of trees. Citrus crops in all areas are making excellent progress with no major problems reported. Good to excellent fruit sizes are reported. Growers and caretakers are conducting routine summer cultural practices including weed and cover crop control and dead tree removal and replacement. Harvest of oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines for the fresh market began in mid-September and many processing plants are now open. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FLORIDA CITRUS: Distribution of 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast by marketing districts and fruit types --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Indian River Gulf Florida State total Fruit type SunRidge 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - ORANGES: Early-midseason-Navel 7,500 8,600 21,700 21,500 82,800 106,900 112,000 137,000 Valencia 8,500 11,700 24,300 29,000 58,200 74,300 91,000 115,000 Total Oranges 16,000 20,300 46,000 50,500 141,000 181,200 203,000 252,000 GRAPEFRUIT: White 10,200 12,300 1,200 1,100 4,800 3,600 16,200 17,000 Colored 13,900 17,300 3,800 2,900 4,800 4,800 22,500 25,000 Total Grapefruit 24,100 29,600 5,000 4,000 9,600 8,400 38,700 42,000 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTIMATES OF PRODUCTION BY MARKETING DISTRICTS Production forecasts made in October for Florida oranges and grapefruit have been divided between marketing districts for this report. These are shown in the table above with the 2002-03 estimates of production for comparisons. Marketing District II is the legally defined Indian River District along the East Coast. Marketing District III includes the Gulf counties of Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee. Marketing District I-the Florida SunRidge-includes all other citrus producing counties. Citrus production, October 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons -------------------------------------------------------- Production Forecast Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 -------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,000 46,700 38,700 42,000 White 1/ 18,700 18,900 16,200 17,000 Colored 2/ 27,300 27,800 22,500 25,000 Texas 7,200 5,900 5,650 5,300 Arizona 250 160 130 90 California 6,300 5,900 5,600 5,500 Total Grapefruit 59,750 58,660 50,080 52,890 Lemons: California 22,600 18,300 24,000 23,000 Arizona 3,600 2,800 3,000 3,000 Total Lemons 26,200 21,100 27,000 26,000 Limes: Florida 250 150 3/ 3/ Temples: Florida 1,250 1,550 1,300 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,100 2,150 2,350 1,300 K-Early: Florida 40 30 3/ 3/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,600 6,600 5,500 6,600 Early 4/ 3,550 4,350 3,000 4,400 Honey 2,050 2,250 2,500 2,200 California 5/ 2,200 2,200 2,500 2,500 Arizona 5/ 650 620 430 600 Total Tangerines 8,450 9,420 8,430 9,700 -------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ Excludes two million boxes of economic abandonment. 3/ No forecast. 4/ 2000-01 through 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 5/ Includes tangelos. MATURITY TEST RESULTS The maturity test results reported on page three are from fruit collected October 27-28 and tested October 29-31. Samples were collected from the same trees as the September and October surveys and reflect maturity levels for unharvested fruit. Average maturity levels are advanced for this time of year although not quite as much as indicated by last month's tests. Acid levels are near the same as last season for early and late oranges but slightly higher for mids. Soluble solids (Brix) is lower for earlys and higher for mids leading to slightly lower ratios than last season. Brix and ratios are the highest in many seasons for Valencia oranges, possibly reflecting a larger amount of younger tree fruit. Grapefruit acid levels are near the same as last season which is the lowest since the mid 1990's. Brix levels are less than last season but at a higher level than previous seasons. This leads to average ratios less than last season but again higher than previous seasons. 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Early (119-118) Sep 1 1.29 1.21 9.40 9.34 7.45 7.85 45.27 42.70 4.26 3.99 Oct 1 0.89 0.83 9.82 9.69 11.40 11.82 51.77 49.07 5.08 4.75 Nov 1 0.71 0.72 10.53 10.43 15.24 14.77 53.17 50.96 5.60 5.31 Mid (55-55) Sep 1 1.42 1.43 9.03 9.35 6.46 6.63 45.90 44.12 4.14 4.13 Oct 1 1.01 1.06 9.58 9.73 9.68 9.39 52.84 49.26 5.06 4.79 Nov 1 0.83 0.88 10.42 10.68 12.87 12.43 54.65 52.31 5.69 5.58 Late (150-150) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.04 2.01 8.70 8.92 4.34 4.47 48.96 46.28 4.26 4.13 Nov 1 1.64 1.63 9.23 9.55 5.72 5.91 52.37 51.07 4.83 4.88 Grapefruit: White Seedless (49-47) Sep 1 1.56 1.54 9.68 9.53 6.22 6.19 34.90 35.12 3.38 3.35 Oct 1 1.43 1.40 9.92 9.78 6.99 7.03 37.95 38.84 3.76 3.80 Nov 1 1.26 1.26 10.22 9.98 8.19 7.97 40.23 42.74 4.10 4.27 Colored Seedless (44-42) Sep 1 1.54 1.50 10.17 9.81 6.62 6.55 35.97 34.86 3.66 3.42 Oct 1 1.33 1.33 10.33 10.11 7.81 7.61 39.50 40.07 4.08 4.05 Nov 1 1.19 1.23 10.70 10.39 9.02 8.48 42.20 43.05 4.52 4.48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used. Maturity test averages by areas, November 1, 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice per Solids sampled (Brix) box per box --------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Early Indian River Dist. 9 0.79 10.90 13.91 50.43 5.51 Other Areas 109 0.71 10.39 14.84 51.00 5.30 Midseason Indian River Dist. 10 0.92 10.68 11.65 52.25 5.58 Other Areas 45 0.87 10.68 12.61 52.33 5.59 Late Indian River Dist. 26 1.59 9.64 6.12 51.67 4.99 Other Areas 124 1.64 9.53 5.86 50.94 4.86 Grapefruit: White Seedless Indian River Dist. 35 1.28 10.11 7.91 42.97 4.34 Other Areas 12 1.19 9.61 8.16 42.08 4.04 Colored Seedless Indian River Dist. 34 1.24 10.42 8.44 43.19 4.51 Other Areas 8 1.19 10.26 8.65 42.45 4.36 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions developed from the October size survey are shown in the following table. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. These frequency distributions relate to fruit from regular bloom and exclude summer bloom in all years. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from September measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Early and midseason oranges: (excluding Navels) 64 and larger 1.3 2.2 2.1 80 5.7 11.2 9.4 100 23.1 33.0 29.4 125 37.9 34.2 34.5 163 and smaller 32.0 19.4 24.6 Navel oranges: 64 and larger 49.0 49.1 70.2 80 32.3 34.6 22.6 100 15.1 12.4 5.8 125 3.0 3.3 1.4 163 and smaller 0.6 0.6 0.0 Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 0.9 3.1 2.2 80 8.1 18.4 14.1 100 30.4 40.7 38.9 125 34.6 27.0 31.5 163 and smaller 26.0 10.8 13.3 White seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 5.9 16.6 12.0 36 10.7 20.0 15.5 40 17.0 22.9 21.1 48 19.6 17.9 17.3 56 15.5 9.2 11.9 63 and smaller 31.3 13.4 22.2 Colored seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 2.8 11.9 6.8 36 9.0 15.3 10.0 40 14.1 21.5 18.7 48 18.8 20.3 21.3 56 17.6 12.1 15.4 63 and smaller 37.7 18.9 27.8 Honey tangerines: 80 and larger 3.7 4.7 4.9 100 21.7 15.0 27.1 120 28.8 30.0 34.1 176 17.7 20.1 13.6 210 and smaller 28.1 30.2 20.3 Sunburst tangerines: 80 and larger 4.5 11.0 6.8 100 13.1 26.1 20.2 120 23.0 32.6 31.7 176 18.5 16.4 15.9 210 and smaller 40.9 13.9 25.4 Tangelos: 80 and larger 24.9 23.6 36.9 100 32.1 30.3 29.0 120 23.3 29.5 20.8 156 and smaller 19.7 16.6 13.3 -------------------------------------------------- The charts below describe the relationships of the fruit size measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest values. [chart: early-midseason oranges size frequency] [chart: white seedless grapefruit size frequency] 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------