------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS DECEMBER FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE December 11, 2003 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2003-04 SEASON -------------------------------------------- January 12, 2004 February 10, 2004 March 10, 2004 April 8, 2004 May 12, 2004 June 11, 2004 July 12, 2004 -------------------------------------------- ALL ORANGES AT 252.0 MILLION BOXES The all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board remains at 252.0 million boxes with offsetting changes in the components. The early-midseason-Navel orange forecast is reduced to 134.0 million boxes while the Valencia orange forecast is raised to 118.0 million boxes. In the past 10 seasons, the December forecast has differed from actual production by an average of 3.0 percent, with five seasons above and five below. Estimated utilization to December 1, including an allowance for gift fruit, is 20.6 million boxes. This figure represents the harvest of early and midseason varieties only as Valencia harvest has not begun. Citrus production, December 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | Nov 12, 2003 Dec 11, 2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 137,000 134,000 California 32,000 41,000 39,000 39,000 Texas 1,530 1,350 1,300 1,300 Arizona 270 200 220 220 Total Above Varieties 161,800 154,550 177,520 174,520 Valencias: FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 115,000 118,000 California 19,500 21,000 20,000 20,000 Texas 210 220 250 250 Arizona 250 270 250 250 Total Valencias 121,960 112,490 135,500 138,500 All Oranges: FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 252,000 252,000 California 51,500 62,000 59,000 59,000 Texas 1,740 1,570 1,550 1,550 Arizona 520 470 470 470 Total All Oranges 283,760 267,040 313,020 313,020 ---------------------------------------------------------------- EARLY-MIDSEASONS LOWERED TO 134.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of early-midseason-Navel oranges is decreased by 3.0 million boxes, or two percent, to 134.0 million boxes. Although fruit sizes were above average early in the season, the growth rate has slacked off for the past two months and the fruit is now projected to be near the average of the past 10 seasons. With the smaller size, it will take about eight more fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Results of the monthly objective surveys show that the drop rate has been increasing slightly more than average as the season progresses and is projected at 9.8 percent. The Navel portion of this crop has been reduced to 4.8 million boxes from 5.0 million boxes. Even with droppage at a near record low level, estimated utilization to December 1 at 1.6 million boxes is lagging behind actual utilization of the previous 10 seasons. Fruit measurements show nearly 3/4 of the crop falls into the largest category with the average size larger than any in the previous 17-year series. With these large sizes and reports of fruit drying, final utilization may depend on the usability of the fruit. Components used in the December Forecast ----------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box (1,000) Early-Mid 32,161 1,236 9.8 239 Navel 2,158 379 9.1 129 Valencia 41,572 684 12.5 194 ----------------------------------------- VALENCIAS NOW 118.0 MILLION BOXES The Valencia forecast is increased to 118.0 million boxes, three percent greater than the initial forecast in October. Objective survey measurements support this change. Fruit size continues above average following a growth pattern similar to last season while droppage remains below the average of the previous 10 seasons. FCOJ YIELD 1.55 GALLONS PER BOX The all orange FCOJ yield is unchanged from October at 1.55 gallons per box of 42 degrees Brix concentrate. This is near last season's 1.54 gallons per box final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The record high yield is 1.63 gallons in the 1998-99 season. A separate projection of yield for early-mids and Valencias will be made in the January report. Percent acid in early and midseason oranges is very low for this time of year. Together with the relatively high soluble solids, ratios are the highest in many seasons. Valencia oranges, although not mature, show low acid and high Brix levels also. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRAPEFRUIT NOW 41.0 MILLION BOXES The forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 1.5 million boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is decreased 1.0 million boxes to 41.0 million. The reduction is in the colored category. If realized, this forecast will be six percent more than harvested last season but 12 percent less than the 46.7 million boxes harvested in the 2001-02 season. The white grapefruit forecast remains at 17.0 million boxes. Fruit growth patterns since October resemble last season which was different from the previous eight. Following the reduction in the rate of growth, it is now projected that it will take 85 fruit to fill a box instead of the 81 used in the October forecast. Fruit droppage however, is now projected at 8.5 percent, down from the 9 percent used in October. With the offsetting effect of these two factors, the resulting expansion remains near the forecast amount. The colored grapefruit forecast is reduced 1.0 million boxes to 24.0 million. Fruit growth is following similar patterns for the colored varieties and the number of fruit required to fill a box is now projected at 94 instead of the 91 used in the October forecast. Droppage rates, however, have increased and the percent of loss to harvest is now projected at 11.5 instead of the 10.5 used in the October forecast. The resulting expansion indicates a reduction in the total number of boxes forecast to be utilized. Citrus production, December 1, 2003 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production | Forecast ----------------------------------------------- Crop and State 2000-01 2001-02 | Nov 12, 2003 Dec 11,2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 42,000 41,000 White 1/ 18,900 16,200 17,000 17,000 Colored 27,800 22,500 25,000 24,000 Texas 5,900 5,650 5,300 5,300 Arizona 160 130 90 90 California 5,900 5,600 5,500 5,500 Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 52,890 51,890 Lemons: California 18,300 24,000 23,000 23,000 Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 26,000 26,000 Limes: Florida 150 2/ 2/ 2/ Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 1,400 Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,300 1,300 K-Early: Florida 30 2/ 2/ 2/ Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,600 6,700 Early 3/ 4,350 3,000 4,400 4,400 Honey 2,250 2,500 2,200 2,300 California 4/ 2,200 2,500 2,500 2,500 Arizona 4/ 620 430 600 600 Total Tangerines 9,420 8,430 9,700 9,800 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes seedy. 2/ No forecast. 3/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy; 2002-03 production and 2003-04 forecast -- Fallglo and Sunburst only. 4/ Includes tangelos. ---------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------- Components used in the December Forecast ----------------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ----------------------------------------------------- (1,000) White Grapefruit 1/ 3,333 497 8.5 85 Colored Grapefruit 5,461 503 11.5 94 ----------------------------------------------------- 1/ Seedless variety only. ALL TANGERINES NOW 6.7 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all varieties of tangerines is increased 100,000 boxes to 6.7 million. The increase is in the Honey tangerine category. The early tangerine varieties ( Fallglo and Sunburst) forecast remains unchanged at 4.4 million boxes. Fallglo harvest is complete with slightly less than 700,000 boxes estimated to have been used in fresh and processing channels. Sunburst harvest is underway for the holiday season with commercial, gift fruit, and fundraising shipments. Estimated utilization of all early tangerines to the first of December is 2.1 million boxes, about the same as last season to the same period. The average fruit size of Sunburst tangerines is slightly larger than projected and droppage is slightly less. Projections remain consistent to attain the forecasted amount. The Honey tangerine forecast is increased 100,000 boxes to 2.3 million. Average fruit sizes are now projected to be slightly larger than expected and droppage less. The average size is larger than any of the previous ten seasons and is expected to be near the largest at harvest. TEMPLES AT 1.4 MILLION BOXES The Temple forecast is unchanged at 1.4 million boxes. If attained, this would equal the freeze affected 1989-90 harvest with only two seasons lower. Average fruit sizes are now expected to be slightly smaller at harvest with droppage slightly less. These offsetting factors have no affect on the expansion and the forecast. TANGELOS STAY AT 1.3 MILLION BOXES The tangelo forecast remains at 1.3 million boxes. This is the smallest amount of harvest since the 1965-66 season. The primary reason is the very low average fruit per tree, down 52 percent from the previous season. Average fruit sizes at harvest are near the largest of the previous ten season series primarily because of the light fruit set. Droppage is below average and near the lowest in the series. ------------------------------------------------------------- December Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 2002-03 2003-04 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Early (76-83) Sep 1 1.34 1.23 9.47 9.32 7.19 7.66 44.76 42.77 4.24 3.98 Oct 1 0.91 0.86 9.90 9.71 11.10 11.56 51.00 49.60 5.04 4.81 Nov 1 0.73 0.74 10.57 10.44 14.74 14.38 52.78 51.32 5.58 5.36 Dec 1 0.73 0.66 11.37 11.30 15.89 17.32 49.57 50.85 5.63 5.74 Mid (51-52) Sep 1 1.43 1.43 9.04 9.34 6.41 6.58 46.06 44.13 4.16 4.12 Oct 1 1.02 1.06 9.59 9.76 9.63 9.38 52.84 49.20 5.07 4.80 Nov 1 0.83 0.88 10.40 10.72 12.84 12.45 54.64 52.39 5.68 5.61 Dec 1 0.79 0.77 11.27 11.68 14.62 15.52 53.66 51.94 6.05 6.07 Late (150-150) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.04 2.01 8.70 8.92 4.34 4.47 48.96 46.28 4.26 4.13 Nov 1 1.64 1.63 9.23 9.55 5.72 5.91 52.37 51.07 4.83 4.88 Dec 1 1.42 1.40 10.05 10.38 7.19 7.53 53.19 53.45 5.35 5.55 Grapefruit: White Seedless (42-44) Sep 1 1.56 1.55 9.67 9.52 6.23 6.16 35.25 35.11 3.41 3.34 Oct 1 1.42 1.40 9.88 9.74 6.99 7.00 38.21 38.98 3.77 3.79 Nov 1 1.27 1.26 10.20 9.96 8.15 7.95 40.30 42.65 4.10 4.25 Dec 1 1.30 1.20 10.45 10.01 8.10 8.40 42.37 44.47 4.42 4.45 Colored Seedless (36-39) Sep 1 1.54 1.50 10.16 9.84 6.63 6.55 35.80 35.24 3.64 3.46 Oct 1 1.34 1.34 10.32 10.12 7.78 7.60 39.41 40.20 4.07 4.07 Nov 1 1.20 1.23 10.71 10.41 8.99 8.49 42.25 43.20 4.52 4.50 Dec 1 1.21 1.12 10.85 10.47 9.01 9.39 42.97 45.65 4.66 4.78 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used. Maturity test averages by areas, December 1, 2003 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfinished Fruit type Groves Acid Solids Ratio juice per Solids sampled (Brix) box per box ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Early Indian River Dist. 6 0.72 11.75 16.56 48.90 5.74 Other Areas 77 0.66 11.26 17.38 51.00 5.74 Midseason Indian River Dist. 10 0.77 11.69 15.21 52.51 6.14 Other Areas 42 0.77 11.68 15.59 51.80 6.05 Late Indian River Dist. 26 1.40 10.55 7.62 53.94 5.69 Other Areas 124 1.40 10.34 7.52 53.35 5.52 Grapefruit: White Seedless Indian River Dist. 33 1.23 10.13 8.29 44.55 4.51 Other Areas 11 1.12 9.65 8.73 44.25 4.28 Colored Seedless Indian River Dist. 33 1.12 10.52 9.41 45.59 4.80 Other Areas 6 1.11 10.18 9.27 45.96 4.68 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- December Forecast 3 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions are from the November size survey conducted in sample groves during the period of November 3 through 25, 2003. The distributions are by percent from fruit within the size range of each 4/5 bushel container. These frequency distributions relate only to fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom fruit in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from November measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2001 2002 2003 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Early and midseason oranges: (excluding Navels) 64 and larger 2.2 3.9 3.1 80 7.9 16.2 11.9 100 29.8 36.1 31.9 125 35.9 29.3 33.7 163 and smaller 24.2 14.5 19.4 Navel oranges: 64 and larger 58.1 56.2 72.7 80 29.2 29.9 22.4 100 10.0 10.9 4.0 125 2.2 2.5 0.7 163 and smaller 0.5 0.5 0.2 White seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 7.3 19.2 13.4 36 14.9 19.8 17.2 40 20.4 24.7 23.7 48 21.8 16.6 17.0 56 13.5 9.5 10.6 63 and smaller 22.1 10.2 18.1 Colored seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 3.9 12.4 8.2 36 11.9 16.9 12.1 40 17.5 25.6 22.5 48 22.4 18.7 21.7 56 15.5 11.4 14.6 63 and smaller 28.8 15.0 20.9 Sunburst tangerines: 80 and larger 9.6 23.3 15.6 100 20.2 35.3 25.3 120 33.3 26.1 31.9 176 15.2 8.9 13.9 210 and smaller 21.7 6.4 13.3 Honey tangerines: 80 and larger 21.7 12.3 24.5 100 30.7 29.0 35.6 120 25.4 31.6 22.6 176 9.2 12.7 9.1 210 and smaller 13.0 14.4 8.2 Temples: 80 and larger 8.8 43.0 17.1 100 38.9 39.3 37.2 120 35.8 12.7 30.2 156 and smaller 16.5 5.0 15.5 Tangelos: 80 and larger 41.5 46.4 57.4 100 31.8 31.4 26.5 120 16.7 17.0 9.8 156 and smaller 10.0 5.2 6.3 The charts below describe the relationships of the fruit size measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest values. [chart: early-mid orange size frequency] [chart: white seedless grapefruit size frequency] ------------------------------------------------------------- December Forecast 4 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------