The all orange forecast for Florida released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is reduced 6.0 million boxes to 162.0 million. This is four percent less than last month's forecast and 14 million boxes or eight percent less than the initial forecast in October of 176.0 million. If realized, this will be 80 million boxes or 33 percent less than harvested last season. The reductions are in the early- midseason-Navel portion, down two million to 84.0 million boxes and in the late (Valencia) portion now forecast at 78.0 million.

  In the past 10 seasons, the January forecast has differed from the final utilization by an average of 2.8 percent. Final utilization may differ from these forecasts because of the extreme variabilities in average fruit per tree and assumptions made on loss of fruit following the hurricanes this past summer.

  The early-midseason-Navel forecast is reduced two million boxes to 84.0 million. This is 33 percent less than harvested last season. December is the final or cut-off month for the objective measurements and drop at 18 percent is the second highest since the surveys began in 1960. Observed drop rates are highest in the hurricane paths and can be attributed to the lingering affects of storm conditions and relatively dry weather since. Average fruit sizes are the smallest since the 2000-01 season and one of the smallest on record.

  With harvest starting late because of the lagging maturity levels and with a smaller crop, estimated utilization to January 9 is 35 million boxes indicating almost 60 percent of the crop yet to be harvested. With such a low amount of harvest, the row count indicator is not considered usable.

  The Navel portion of the forecast is unchanged at 2.5 million boxes. It is anticipated that less than the allocated 1.0 million boxes will be used in gift fruit and local sales.

VALENCIA ORANGES NOW 78.0 MILLION BOXES

  The Valencia forecast is reduced another 4.0 million boxes to 78.0 million. Average drop is now expected to reach 20 percent as fruit continues to be lost from the effects of the hurricanes. Average fruit size continues to be near the smallest in the last 20 years.

FCOJ YIELD1.56 GALLONS PER BOX

  The projection of FCOJ yield per box of all oranges is continued at 1.56 gallons. This projection attempts to project the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons and the late (Valencia) portion at 1.63. Last season's all orange final yield was also 1.56 with the early-midseason portion 1.45 and the late portion 1.69 gallons per box.

  The Florida forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 700,000 boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 13.0 million boxes. Making up the forecast is 3.0 million boxes of white grapefruit and 10.0 million boxes of colored varieties, both unchanged from last month. If realized, this forecast will be 68 percent less than harvested last season, and the lowest since the 1935-36 season. Assumptions are made based on the fruit per tree number published in the initial October forecast. Final utilization could differ from the forecast if total fruit loss due to the hurricanes is different than those assumptions.

  The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in December are the primary indicators for the January grapefruit forecast. The white grapefruit forecast remains at 3.0 million boxes. Average fruit size and drop projections for white grapefruit have not changed since November. Compared to the October forecast projected size is smaller and the projected drop rate is more than half again as high as the initial forecast. Estimated utilization to January 1 is 1.0 million boxes, compared to 2.1 million boxes the same time last year.

  The colored grapefruit forecast is maintained at 10.0 million boxes. Compared to last month , the projected size is slightly smaller, and the drop rate is higher; however, regressions compared to previous years indicate the current forecast will still be realized. The projected size compared to the initial October forecast is 13 percent smaller, and the projected drop rate is twice as high. Estimated utilization to January 1 is 3.1 million boxes, compared to 7.1 million boxes the same time last year.

Survey Components Used in the Forecast
Type	Bearing trees	Fruit per tree	Percent droppage	Fruit per box
	(1,000)
White Grapefruit 1/	2,861	109	17	88
Colored Grapefruit	5,366	210	24	100
1/ Seedless variety only.

  The forecast of all tangerines is continued at 4.5 million boxes. Forecast for the early varieties ( Fallglo and Sunburst) is raised by 200,000 boxes and the later maturing Honey variety is lowered by 200,000 boxes.

  The forecast of utilization for early tangerines is raised to 2.5 million boxes, up from last month. Fallglo tangerine harvest is complete at slightly more than 600,000 boxes and Sunburst tangerines estimated utilization to January 1 is just over 1.7 million boxes, including 150,000 boxes for other use. Early tangerines are beginning to wind down with more than 100,000 boxes harvested the last week of December.

  The Honey tangerine forecast is lowered to 2.0 million boxes, down from the initial forecast set in October. Size projection is the same as last month; however, drop projection since last month has increased from 40 percent for the harvest season to 50 percent. Although not the highest drop, this year is projected to be higher than eight of the last ten years. Utilization is only in its third week of harvest for Honey tangerines.

TEMPLES NOW AT 700,000 BOXES

  The Temple forecast is lowered by 100,000 boxes to 700,000. If attained, this will be the smallest amount since forecasting Temples began in the 1953-54 season. The change in the forecast is due to a higher drop rate during the last month. The projected drop rate for Temples is at 17 percent, up two percentage points. If attained, this will be higher than any of the past ten years. Average fruit size is consistent with last month's forecast, and compared to the last ten years is slightly below the median.

TANGELOS STAY AT 1.1 MILLION BOXES

  Tangelos remain at 1.1 million boxes after being lowered last month from the initial October forecast of 1.4 million boxes. If realized, it will be only 10 percent larger than last year's tie for a 30 year low with the 1964-65 season utilization of 1.0 million boxes. The smallest crop in this series is 300,000 boxes in 1958-59. Estimated utilization to January 1 is slightly over 730,000 boxes, compared to 640,000 boxes the same time last year.