------------------------------------------------------------------------ CITRUS JANUARY FORECAST MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE January 12, 2005 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service | 1222 Woodward Street | Orlando, Florida 32803 | 407 / 648-6013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECAST DATES 2004-05 SEASON ----------------------------- March 10, 2005 April 8, 2005 May 12, 2005 June 10, 2005 July 12, 2005 ----------------------------- ALL ORANGES LOWERED TO 162.0 MILLION BOXES The all orange forecast for Florida released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is reduced 6.0 million boxes to 162.0 million. This is four percent less than last month's forecast and 14 million boxes or eight percent less than the initial forecast in October of 176.0 million. If realized, this will be 80 million boxes or 33 percent less than harvested last season. The reductions are in the early- midseason-Navel portion, down two million to 84.0 million boxes and in the late (Valencia) portion now forecast at 78.0 million. In the past 10 seasons, the January forecast has differed from the final utilization by an average of 2.8 percent. Final utilization may differ from these forecasts because of the extreme variabilities in average fruit per tree and assumptions made on loss of fruit following the hurricanes this past summer. Citrus production, January 1, 2005 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons -------------------------------------------------------------- Production Forecast Crop and State 2002-03 2003-04 Dec 10, 2004 Jan 12,2005 -------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges: FLORIDA 112,000 126,000 86,000 84,000 California 42,000 38,000 46,000 44,000 Texas 1,350 1,420 1,650 1,500 Arizona 200 300 270 240 Total Above Varieties 155,550 165,720 133,920 129,740 Valencias: FLORIDA 91,000 116,000 82,000 78,000 California 20,000 14,000 16,000 16,500 Texas 220 230 250 250 Arizona 270 170 170 190 Total Valencias 111,490 130,400 98,420 94,940 All Oranges: FLORIDA 203,000 242,000 168,000 162,000 California 62,000 52,000 62,000 60,500 Texas 1,570 1,650 1,900 1,750 Arizona 470 470 440 430 Total All Oranges 267,040 296,120 232,340 224,680 ------------------------------------------------------------ EARLY-MIDSEASONS NOW 84.0 MILLION BOXES The early-midseason-Navel forecast is reduced two million boxes to 84.0 million. This is 33 percent less than harvested last season. December is the final or cut-off month for the objective measurements and drop at 18 percent is the second highest since the surveys began in 1960. Observed drop rates are highest in the hurricane paths and can be attributed to the lingering affects of storm conditions and relatively dry weather since. Average fruit sizes are the smallest since the 2000-01 season and one of the smallest on record. With harvest starting late because of the lagging maturity levels and with a smaller crop, estimated utilization to January 9 is 35 million boxes indicating almost 60 percent of the crop yet to be harvested. With such a low amount of harvest, the row count indicator is not considered usable. The Navel portion of the forecast is unchanged at 2.5 million boxes. It is anticipated that less than the allocated 1.0 million boxes will be used in gift fruit and local sales. Survey Components Used in the Forecast -------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box ------------------------------------------------------- (1,000) Early-Mid 31,999 863 18 263 Navel 1,862 249 21 138 Valencia 41,208 529 20 214 ------------------------------------------------------- VALENCIA ORANGES NOW 78.0 MILLION BOXES The Valencia forecast is reduced another 4.0 million boxes to 78.0 million. Average drop is now expected to reach 20 percent as fruit continues to be lost from the effects of the hurricanes. Average fruit size continues to be near the smallest in the last 20 years. FCOJ YIELD1.56 GALLONS PER BOX The projection of FCOJ yield per box of all oranges is continued at 1.56 gallons. This projection attempts to project the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.50 gallons and the late (Valencia) portion at 1.63. Last season's all orange final yield was also 1.56 with the early-midseason portion 1.45 and the late portion 1.69 gallons per box. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Citrus production, January 1, 2005 forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons -------------------------------------------------------------- Production Forecast Crop and State 2002-03 2003-04 Nov 12, 2004 Dec 10,2004 -------------------------------------------------------------- - - - 1,000 boxes - - - Grapefruit: FLORIDA-All 38,700 40,900 13,000 13,000 White 16,200 15,900 3,000 3,000 Colored 22,500 25,000 10,000 10,000 Texas 5,650 5,700 5,900 6,200 Arizona 130 140 200 180 California 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,300 Total Grapefruit 50,080 52,140 24,300 24,680 Lemons: California 24,000 18,000 19,500 19,500 Arizona 3,000 3,000 2,400 2,400 Total Lemons 27,000 21,000 21,900 21,900 Temples: Florida 1,300 1,400 800 700 Tangelos: Florida 2,350 1,000 1,100 1,100 Tangerines: FLORIDA-All 5,500 6,500 4,500 4,500 Early 1/ 3,000 3,600 2,300 2,500 Honey 2,500 2,900 2,200 2,000 California 2/ 2,800 2,700 2,900 2,900 Arizona 2/ 430 690 500 450 Total Tangerines 8,730 9,890 7,900 7,850 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Fallglo and Sunburst varieties. 2/ Includes tangelos. GRAPEFRUIT 13.0 MILLION BOXES The Florida forecast of grapefruit for certified utilization (including an allocation of 700,000 boxes of gift fruit and local sales) is maintained at 13.0 million boxes. Making up the forecast is 3.0 million boxes of white grapefruit and 10.0 million boxes of colored varieties, both unchanged from last month. If realized, this forecast will be 68 percent less than harvested last season, and the lowest since the 1935-36 season. Assumptions are made based on the fruit per tree number published in the initial October forecast. Final utilization could differ from the forecast if total fruit loss due to the hurricanes is different than those assumptions. The fruit size and drop measurements obtained in December are the primary indicators for the January grapefruit forecast. The white grapefruit forecast remains at 3.0 million boxes. Average fruit size and drop projections for white grapefruit have not changed since November. Compared to the October forecast projected size is smaller and the projected drop rate is more than half again as high as the initial forecast. Estimated utilization to January 1 is 1.0 million boxes, compared to 2.1 million boxes the same time last year. The colored grapefruit forecast is maintained at 10.0 million boxes. Compared to last month , the projected size is slightly smaller, and the drop rate is higher; however, regressions compared to previous years indicate the current forecast will still be realized. The projected size compared to the initial October forecast is 13 percent smaller, and the projected drop rate is twice as high. Estimated utilization to January 1 is 3.1 million boxes, compared to 7.1 million boxes the same time last year. Survey Components Used in the Forecast --------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit Fruit Type Bearing per Percent per trees tree droppage box --------------------------------------------------------------- (1,000) White Grapefruit 1/ 2,861 109 17 88 Colored Grapefruit 5,366 210 24 100 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Seedless variety only. ALL TANGERINES REMAIN AT 4.5 MILLION BOXES The forecast of all tangerines is continued at 4.5 million boxes. Forecast for the early varieties ( Fallglo and Sunburst) is raised by 200,000 boxes and the later maturing Honey variety is lowered by 200,000 boxes. The forecast of utilization for early tangerines is raised to 2.5 million boxes, up from last month. Fallglo tangerine harvest is complete at slightly more than 600,000 boxes and Sunburst tangerines estimated utilization to January 1 is just over 1.7 million boxes, including 150,000 boxes for other use. Early tangerines are beginning to wind down with more than 100,000 boxes harvested the last week of December. The Honey tangerine forecast is lowered to 2.0 million boxes, down from the initial forecast set in October. Size projection is the same as last month; however, drop projection since last month has increased from 40 percent for the harvest season to 50 percent. Although not the highest drop, this year is projected to be higher than eight of the last ten years. Utilization is only in its third week of harvest for Honey tangerines. TEMPLES NOW AT 700,000 BOXES The Temple forecast is lowered by 100,000 boxes to 700,000. If attained, this will be the smallest amount since forecasting Temples began in the 1953-54 season. The change in the forecast is due to a higher drop rate during the last month. The projected drop rate for Temples is at 17 percent, up two percentage points. If attained, this will be higher than any of the past ten years. Average fruit size is consistent with last month's forecast, and compared to the last ten years is slightly below the median. TANGELOS STAY AT 1.1 MILLION BOXES Tangelos remain at 1.1 million boxes after being lowered last month from the initial October forecast of 1.4 million boxes. If realized, it will be only 10 percent larger than last year's tie for a 30 year low with the 1964-65 season utilization of 1.0 million boxes. The smallest crop in this series is 300,000 boxes in 1958-59. Estimated utilization to January 1 is slightly over 730,000 boxes, compared to 640,000 boxes the same time last year. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- January Forecast 2 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample groves, 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit type (No. groves) Acid Solids Ratio Unfinished juice Solids test date (Brix) per box per box ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results. Oranges: Early (54-87) Sep 1 1.24 1.62 9.26 9.28 7.58 5.83 42.32 42.43 3.92 3.93 Oct 1 0.86 1.09 9.69 9.24 11.49 8.64 49.53 48.64 4.80 4.49 Nov 1 0.76 0.83 10.46 9.85 14.07 12.10 51.32 51.83 5.37 5.11 Dec 1 0.67 0.74 11.36 10.66 17.26 14.59 50.88 51.43 5.77 5.49 Jan 1 0.67 0.72 11.53 11.26 17.60 15.86 49.24 51.37 5.69 5.78 Mid (41-45) Sep 1 1.45 1.82 9.33 9.02 6.52 5.05 44.19 42.05 4.13 3.79 Oct 1 1.06 1.26 9.73 8.98 9.30 7.22 49.08 49.61 4.78 4.45 Nov 1 0.89 0.94 10.71 9.49 12.20 10.29 52.25 53.48 5.59 5.08 Dec 1 0.78 0.83 11.72 10.55 15.29 12.83 52.09 51.67 6.10 5.45 Jan 1 0.80 0.82 12.04 11.19 15.40 13.76 51.37 53.07 6.18 5.94 Late (150-144) Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Oct 1 2.01 2.43 8.92 8.64 4.47 3.59 46.28 46.50 4.13 4.02 Nov 1 1.63 1.92 9.55 8.84 5.91 4.64 51.07 50.23 4.88 4.44 Dec 1 1.40 1.56 10.38 9.73 7.53 6.29 53.45 53.16 5.55 5.17 Jan 1 1.26 1.39 11.13 10.46 8.94 7.56 53.39 53.98 5.95 5.64 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used. Maturity Test Averages by Areas, January 1, 2005 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fruit Groves Solids Unfinished Solids type sampled Acid (Brix) Ratio juice per per box box ---------------------------------------------------------------- Number Percent Percent Pounds Pounds Oranges: Early Indian River Dist. 6 0.77 11.26 14.73 49.62 5.58 Other Areas 81 0.72 11.26 15.94 51.50 5.80 Midseason Indian River Dist. 9 0.86 11.26 13.15 53.69 6.06 Other Areas 36 0.81 11.17 13.91 52.92 5.91 Late Indian River Dist. 23 1.37 10.38 7.63 53.92 5.59 Other Areas 121 1.40 10.47 7.54 53.99 5.65 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- January Forecast 3 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------ FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS Size frequency distributions are from the December size survey conducted in sample groves during the period of December 6 through 23, 2004. The distributions are by percent from fruit within the size range of each 4/5 bushel container. These frequency distributions relate only to fruit from spring bloom and exclude summer bloom fruit in all seasons. Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions from November measurements -------------------------------------------------- Type of fruit and size in 4/5-bushel containers 2002 2003 2004 -------------------------------------------------- - - - Percent - - - Early and midseason oranges: (excluding Navels) 64 and larger 6.7 4.3 1.8 80 23.0 13.4 8.1 100 37.9 32.5 30.5 125 23.0 31.2 37.6 163 and smaller 9.4 18.6 22.0 Valencia oranges: 64 and larger 13.3 8.2 1.5 80 35.1 26.6 12.6 100 36.8 41.0 40.1 125 12.7 19.3 32.9 163 and smaller 2.1 4.9 12.9 White seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 33.0 13.6 14.9 36 22.3 20.4 22.2 40 20.1 24.9 25.4 48 11.3 16.2 16.5 56 6.0 9.6 10.3 63 and smaller 7.3 15.3 10.7 Colored seedless grapefruit: 32 and larger 20.5 8.6 7.6 36 22.2 16.1 15.5 40 23.3 25.7 25.2 48 15.9 20.6 22.0 56 7.8 12.9 13.5 63 and smaller 10.3 16.1 16.2 Honey tangerines: 80 and larger 29.4 40.8 15.3 100 34.2 32.7 31.6 120 23.4 16.7 33.5 176 7.3 4.7 9.9 210 and smaller 5.7 5.1 9.7 Temples: 80 and larger 62.6 31.3 25.4 100 28.6 36.9 47.8 120 7.1 19.4 23.7 156 and smaller 1.7 12.4 3.1 The charts below describe the relationships of the fruit size measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest values. [chart: early-midseason orange size frequency] [chart: white grapefruit size frequency] ----------------------------------------------------------------------- January Forecast 4 Florida Agricultural Statistics Service ------------------------------------------------------------------------