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CITRUS
NOVEMBER FORECAST
MATURITY TEST RESULTS AND FRUIT SIZE

November 12, 2004

Florida Agricultural Statistics Service   |  1222 Woodward Street   |  Orlando, Florida 32803   |  407 / 648-6013


FORECAST DATES 2004-05 SEASON

December 10, 2004

January 12, 2005

February 9, 2005

March 10, 2005

April 8, 2005

May 12, 2005

June 10, 2005

July 12, 2005


ORANGES REMAIN 176.0 MILLION BOXES

    The forecast of all oranges for Florida is maintained at 176.0 million boxes. The Early-mid-Navel category remains at 92.0 million boxes and the Valencia portion is 84.0 million. This forecast is 27 percent less than last season's production and the smallest crop since the 1993-94 season. Other states' forecasts are not open to review or change in November.

    Normally, the forecasts for Florida are carried forward from October. Because of the hurricanes experienced in late summer, and at the request of the Florida Citrus Crops Estimates Advisory Committee, the monthly size and drop survey data from October measurements was analyzed for any indication of fruit sizing or droppage other than what was anticipated and projected for the October forecast.

    Fruit size measurements in October indicated a slowing of the rate of growth for all oranges, possibly because of the dry weather. As anticipated, droppage was higher in the October measurements because of the lingering effects of Hurricane Jeanne which passed through the State on September 26th.


Citrus Production: November 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Early, Midseason, and Navel Oranges:
FLORIDA 128,000 112,000 126,000 92,000
California 32,000 42,000 38,000 46,000
Texas 1,530 1,350 1,420 1,650
Arizona 270 200 300 270
Total Above Varieties 161,800 155,550 165,720 139,920
Valencias:
FLORIDA 102,000 91,000 116,000 84,000
California 19,500 20,000 14,000 16,000
Texas 210 220 230 250
Arizona 250 270 170 170
Total Valencias 121,960 111,490 130,400 100,420
All Oranges:
FLORIDA 230,000 203,000 242,000 176,000
California 51,500 62,000 52,000 62,000
Texas 1,740 1,570 1,650 1,900
Arizona 520 470 470 440
Total All Oranges 283,760 267,040 296,120 240,340


FCOJ YIELD 1.56 GALLONS PER BOX

    The FCOJ yield projection remains at 1.56 gallons per box of 42 degrees Brix concentrate. Because of the reduced crop size this season, fewer boxes are expected to be used for FCOJ.

    Maturity test results from samples collected and tested the week of October 25th indicate that early oranges are advancing in maturity more quickly than anticipated from earlier indications. Percent acid levels are dropping and Brix is increasing to indicate a ratio of 12.38. The midseason varieties' ratio level is now over 10. Processors indicate harvest will begin sometime in mid-November.

    Grapefruit tests indicate lagging Brix levels which are holding ratios below desired levels. Limited harvest for fresh use has started.


CROP PROGRESS

    In spite of extensive hurricane losses and damage, citrus trees in most areas are in good condition. Growers are cleaning up debris and opening middles to begin harvest of oranges, grapefruit, and specialty crops. About half of the packinghouses are open at this time.


Florida Citrus: Distribution of 2003-04 production and 2004-05
forecast by marketing districts and fruit types
Fruit type Indian River Gulf Florida SunRidge State total
2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05
- - - 1,000 boxes - - -
ORANGES:
    Early-midseason-Navel 7,600 2,700 22,600 26,400 95,800 62,900 126,000 92,000
    Valencia 10,800 5,000 30,900 26,900 74,300 52,100 116,000 84,000
Total Oranges 18,400 7,700 53,500 53,300 170,100 115,000 242,000 176,000
GRAPEFRUIT:
    White 11,200 1,400 900 800 3,800 1,800 15,900 4,000
    Colored 16,800 3,600 4,000 4,500 4,200 2,900 25,000 11,000
Total Grapefruit 28,000 5,000 4,900 5,300 8,000 4,700 40,900 15,000


ESTIMATES OF PRODUCTION BY MARKETING DISTRICTS

    Production forecasts made for Florida oranges and grapefruit have been divided between marketing districts for this report. These are shown in the table above with the 2003-04 estimates of production for comparisons. Marketing District II is the legally defined Indian River District along the East Coast. Marketing District III includes the Gulf counties of Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, and Lee. Marketing District I-the Florida SunRidge-includes all other citrus producing counties.


Citrus Production, November 1, 2004
forecasts by varieties and states, with comparisons
Crop and State Production Forecast
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
  - - - 1,000 boxes - - -
Grapefruit:
     FLORIDA-All 46,700 38,700 40,900 15,000
             White 18,900 16,200 15,900 4,000
             Colored 27,800 22,500 25,000 11,000
    Texas 5,900 5,650 5,700 5,900
    Arizona 160 130 140 200
    California 5,900 5,600 5,400 5,200
Total Grapefruit 58,660 50,080 52,140 26,300
Lemons:
    California 18,300 24,000 18,000 19,500
    Arizona 2,800 3,000 3,000 2,400
Total Lemons 21,100 27,000 21,000 21,900
Limes: Florida 150 1/ 1/ 1/
Temples: Florida 1,550 1,300 1,400 800
Tangelos: Florida 2,150 2,350 1,000 1,400
K-Early: Florida 30 1/ 1/ 1/
Tangerines:
     FLORIDA-All 6,600 5,500 6,500 4,700
            Early 2/ 4,350 3,000 3,600 2,500
            Honey 2,250 2,500 2,900 2,200
    California 3/ 2,200 2,800 2,700 2,900
    Arizona 3/ 620 430 690 500
Total Tangerines 9,420 8,730 9,890 8,100
1/ No forecast.
2/ 2001-02 -- Robinson, Fallglo, Sunburst, and Dancy varieties, Fallglo and Sunburst only beginning in 2002-03.
3/ Includes tangelos.


GRAPEFRUIT UNCHANGED

    The grapefruit forecasts are unchanged from October. Whites are forecast at 4.0 million boxes and colored varieties at 11.0 million. Grapefruit losses from the hurricanes this summer were extensive with the indicated total 63 percent less than last season's production. The monthly fruit size and drop survey show white sizing rates below average as anticipated but colored sizes continuing on a more normal pattern. Droppage rates as a result of Hurricane Jeanne were higher than normal as anticipated.


SPECIALTY CROPS UNCHANGED

    Temple, tangelo and tangerine forecasts are all unchanged from last month. Except for Fallglo tangerines, fruit sizes are remaining slightly smaller than anticipated. Droppage rates as a result of the hurricane in late September are higher in October.


October Forecast
Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
2


Unadjusted Maturity Tests: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample
groves, 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons
Fruit type
(No. groves)
test date 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished juice
per box 		Solids
per box
2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05 2003-04 2004-05
  Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
  Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not comparable to plant test results.
Oranges:
    Early (118-120)
        Sep 1 1.21 1.62 9.34 9.31 7.85 5.85 42.70 42.42 3.99 3.95
        Oct 1 0.83 1.08 9.69 9.27 11.82 8.73 49.07 48.40 4.75 4.49
        Nov 1 0.72 0.81 10.43 9.87 14.77 12.38 50.96 51.70 5.31 5.10
    Mid (55-53)
        Sep 1 1.43 1.80 9.35 9.02 6.63 5.11 44.12 42.08 4.13 3.79
        Oct 1 1.06 1.26 9.73 9.01 9.39 7.26 49.26 49.93 4.79 4.50
        Nov 1 0.88 0.93 10.68 9.52 12.43 10.43 52.31 53.35 5.58 5.08
    Late (150-144)
        Sep 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
        Oct 1 2.01 2.43 8.92 8.64 4.47 3.59 46.28 46.50 4.13 4.02
        Nov 1 1.63 1.92 9.55 8.84 5.91 4.64 51.07 50.23 4.88 4.44
Grapefruit:
    White Seedless (47-43)
        Sep 1 1.54 1.70 9.53 9.58 6.19 5.63 35.12 32.86 3.35 3.15
        Oct 1 1.40 1.41 9.78 9.24 7.03 6.56 38.84 38.89 3.80 3.60
        Nov 1 1.26 1.28 9.98 9.29 7.97 7.30 42.74 42.89 4.27 3.98
    Colored Seedless (42-46)
        Sep 1 1.50 1.66 9.81 9.75 6.55 5.89 34.86 33.90 3.42 3.31
        Oct 1 1.33 1.37 10.11 9.45 7.61 6.95 40.07 40.20 4.05 3.80
        Nov 1 1.23 1.27 10.39 9.53 8.48 7.52 43.05 43.12 4.48 4.11
NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also identical to past tests and no restrictors are used.


Maturity test averages by areas, November 1, 2004
Fruit type Groves
sampled 		Acid Solids
(Brix) 		Ratio Unfinished
juice per box 		Solids
per box
  Number Percent Percent   Pounds Pounds
Oranges:
    Early
        Indian River Dist. 9 0.90 9.72 10.92 51.97 5.04
        Other Areas 111 0.81 9.88 12.50 51.68 5.10
    Midseason
        Indian River Dist. 10 0.94 8.93 9.55 53.76 4.80
        Other Areas 43 0.92 9.65 10.64 53.25 5.14
    Late
        Indian River Dist. 23 1.96 8.65 4.44 50.51 4.38
        Other Areas 121 1.92 8.88 4.68 50.18 4.45
Grapefruit:
    White Seedless
        Indian River Dist. 35 1.28 9.31 7.27 42.76 3.98
        Other Areas 8 1.25 9.22 7.40 43.45 4.00
    Colored Seedless
        Indian River Dist. 36 1.26 9.48 7.55 43.29 4.11
        Other Areas 10 1.32 9.69 7.43 42.48 4.12



October Forecast
Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
3


FRUIT SIZE COMPARISONS BY TYPES TO PREVIOUS SEASONS

    Size frequency distributions developed from the October size survey are shown in the following table. The distributions are by percent of fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. These frequency distributions relate to fruit from regular bloom and exclude summer bloom in all years.


Florida Citrus: Size frequency distributions
from October measurements
Type of fruit and size
in 4/5-bushel containers 		2002 2003 2004
  - - - Percent - - -
Early and midseason oranges:
    (excluding Navels)
         64 and larger 2.2 2.1 0.5
         80 11.2 9.4 3.6
        100 33.0 29.4 17.5
        125 34.2 34.5 37.4
        163 and smaller 19.4 24.6 41.0
Navel oranges:
         64 and larger 49.1 70.2 38.7
         80 34.6 22.6 38.5
        100 12.4 5.8 18.9
        125 3.3 1.4 3.3
        163 and smaller 0.6 0.0 0.6
Valencia oranges:
         64 and larger 3.1 2.2 0.2
         80 18.4 14.1 2.8
        100 40.7 38.9 21.8
        125 27.0 31.5 38.6
        163 and smaller 10.8 13.3 36.6
White seedless grapefruit:
         32 and larger 16.6 12.0 7.2
         36 20.0 15.5 16.5
         40 22.9 21.1 22.5
         48 17.9 17.3 20.2
         56 9.2 11.9 13.2
         63 and smaller 13.4 22.2 20.4
Colored seedless grapefruit:
         32 and larger 11.9 6.8 5.6
         36 15.3 10.0 10.6
         40 21.5 18.7 19.3
         48 20.3 21.3 20.1
         56 12.1 15.4 16.5
         63 and smaller 18.9 27.8 27.9
Honey tangerines:
         80 and larger 4.7 4.9 0.3
        100 15.0 27.1 6.0
        120 30.0 34.1 21.0
        176 20.1 13.6 20.5
        210 and smaller 30.2 20.3 52.2
Sunburst tangerines:
        80 and larger 11.0 6.8 3.5
        100 26.1 20.2 8.8
        120 32.6 31.7 19.2
        176 16.4 15.9 17.7
        210 and smaller 13.9 25.4 50.8
Tangelos:
         80 and larger 23.6 36.9 3.9
        100 30.3 29.0 19.6
        120 29.5 20.8 27.5
        156 and smaller 16.6 13.3 49.0


    The charts below describe the relationships of the fruit size measurements with those taken in the previous year. The diameter measurements shown are the minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest values.


chart: early-midseason size frequency
chart: white seedless grapefruit size frequency

October Forecast
Florida Agricultural Statistics Service
4

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