in-crop-weather State Indiana Crop Weather Week Ending Date August 2, 2009 IN-CW080309 AGRICULTURAL SUMMARY Scattered rain showers during the week left some parts of the state with excess moisture while field crops in other areas are beginning to show stress from dry conditions, according to the Indiana Field Office of USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Another week of below normal temperatures has further slowed development of crops causing some concern of potential damage from an early frost. Detasseling was taking place in seed corn fields. Some operations were finishing second cuttings of hay while others were beginning third cuttings. FIELD CROPS REPORT There were 4.7 days suitable for field work during the week. Seventy -six percent of the corn crop has silked compared with 83 percent last year and 93 percent for the 5-year average. Nine percent of the corn is in dough compared to 7 percent last year and 30 percent for the 5-year average. Corn condition is rated 66 percent good to excellent compared with 67 percent last year at this time. Sixty-seven percent of the soybean acreage is blooming compared with 70 percent last year and 84 percent for the 5-year average. Nineteen percent of the soybean acreage is setting pods compared to 17 percent last year and 45 percent for the 5-year average. Soybean condition is rated 66 percent good to excellent compared with 63 percent last year at this time. The second cutting of Alfalfa hay is 89 percent complete compared with 89 percent last year and 95 percent for the 5-year average. Major activities during the week included: spraying herbicides, reporting crops at FSA offices, baling hay, mowing roadsides, scouting fields, and taking care of livestock. LIVESTOCK, PASTURE AND RANGE REPORT Pasture condition is rated 68 percent good to excellent compared with 61 percent last year at this time. Livestock continue to benefit from the cool temperatures and favorable pasture conditions. Crop Progress Table ------------------------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : 5-Year Crop : Week : Week : Year : Avg ------------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn Silked 76 53 83 93 Corn in Dough 9 2 7 30 Soybeans Blooming 67 51 70 84 Soybeans Setting Pods 19 7 17 45 Alfalfa - 2nd Cutting 89 83 89 95 Crop Condition Table ---------------------------------------------------- : Very : : : : Excel- Crop : Poor : Poor : Fair : Good : lent ---------------------------------------------------- Percent Corn 1 7 26 53 13 Soybean 2 8 24 55 11 Pasture 1 6 25 50 18 Soil Moisture & Days Suitable for Fieldwork Table ---------------------------------------- : This : Last : Last : : Week : Week : Year : ---------------------------------------- Percent Topsoil Very Short 2 2 3 Short 18 18 26 Adequate 63 62 66 Surplus 17 18 5 Subsoil Very Short 2 2 3 Short 22 21 18 Adequate 62 63 72 Surplus 14 14 7 Days Suitable 4.7 4.7 5.8 Contact Information --Greg Preston, Director --Andy Higgins, Agricultural Statistician E-Mail Address: nass-in@nass.usda.gov http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Other Agricultural Comments And News CORN PRICES LOOKING FOR DIRECTION -Written July 27, 2009 Corn prices have settled into a relatively narrow trading range, with December 2009 futures trading between $3.20 and $3.50 per bushel over the past three weeks. The relatively low price level reflects the anticipation of a large harvest in 2009. The USDA will release the first survey based corn yield projection on August 12. That survey will also be used to update estimates of planted acreage of corn and acreage expected to be harvested for grain in 2009. The update of the acreage estimate is motivated by late planting in some states and the possibility that acreage deviated from June intentions. The consensus seems to be for at least a modest reduction in acreage compared to those intentions. Since acreage estimates for soybeans are also updated in August, the report will give some insight into the magnitude of unplanted acreage. Observation suggests that several thousand acres were not planted this spring, but this report will reveal if the total is large enough to alter production expectations of corn or soybeans. The USDA will also update projections of corn consumption for the current and upcoming marketing years on August 12. Recent information reveals a mixed bag for corn consumption during the current year. The USDA's July Cattle on Feed report indicated that the inventory of cattle in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more was 5.3 percent smaller on July 1, 2009 than on July 1, 2008. The July Cattle report also confirmed some liquidation of both the beef cow and dairy cow inventories and a 2009 calf crop that is expected to be 1.4 percent smaller than the 2008 calf crop. These smaller numbers all point to some weakness in feed demand for corn for the remainder of the current marketing year and into the 2009-10 marketing year. U.S. corn exports, on the other hand, have been relatively large in recent weeks. Export inspections for the week ended July 23, for example, were reported at an unexpectedly large 52.234 million bushels. Census Bureau export estimates through May were about 50 million bushels larger than the cumulative export inspection estimate. If that margin has persisted, exports during the final 5.6 weeks of the 2008-09 marketing year need to average 36 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection of 1.8 billion bushels. It is generally expected that the August USDA reports will continue to point towards an ample supply of corn for the 2009-10 marketing year. The state by state yield projections, along with the marketing year average farm price projection, will have important implication for those who are evaluating the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program. Prospects for a 2009-10 average farm price well below the average for 2007-08 and 2008-09 increases the expectation that ACRE payments could be triggered at the state level in 2009-10, even if state average yields are relatively high. Prospects for a relatively low yield in any state will increase the likelihood that ACRE payments will be triggered. Prospects for a lower price will also increase expectations that farm level payments will be triggered, although prospects for farm level yields will have to be evaluated carefully. Unusually high average farm yields could offset the impact of a lower price. If a large corn crop does materialize in 2009 and prices remain low through harvest, crop revenue insurance payments may also be triggered, particularly for those producers who experience lower yields. A combination of crop revenue insurance payments and ACRE payments could help offset the financial impact of lower average corn prices during the year ahead. For now, additional sales of 2009 crop corn are not appealing. December futures remain well below the crop revenue insurance guarantee. With the market generally expecting a very large 2009 harvest, additional downside price risk may be minimal for the time being. -Issued by Darrel Good, Agricultural Economist, University of Illinois. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The INDIANA CROP & WEATHER REPORT (USPS 675-770), (ISSN 0442-817X) is issued weekly April through November by the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. For information on subscribing, send request to above address. POSTMASTER: Send address change to the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Weather Information Table Week ending Sunday August 2, 2009 ----------------------------------------------------- | Past Week Weather Summary Data |--------------------------------- Station | Air | | Avg | Temperature | Precip. |4 in. |---------------|------------|Soil |Hi |Lo |Avg|DFN| Total|Days |Temp ---------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 85 56 69 -5 0.28 2 Francesville 82 54 69 -5 0.16 2 Valparaiso_AP_I 83 55 70 -3 0.33 3 Wanatah 83 52 69 -4 0.10 3 76 Winamac 84 56 70 -3 0.68 4 North Central (2) Plymouth 83 54 70 -5 0.28 4 South_Bend 83 56 70 -3 1.02 2 Young_America 85 55 68 -6 0.59 2 Northeast (3) Fort_Wayne 85 54 70 -4 1.52 3 Kendallville 84 58 71 -2 0.24 2 West Central (4) Greencastle 85 55 69 -7 0.08 3 Perrysville 88 57 71 -4 1.04 2 72 Spencer_Ag 86 58 71 -5 0.50 1 Terre_Haute_AFB 87 58 72 -4 0.20 1 W_Lafayette_6NW 85 55 70 -4 1.39 2 77 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 86 59 72 -3 0.51 3 Greenfield 85 56 71 -5 0.28 3 Indianapolis_AP 87 60 73 -3 0.13 2 Indianapolis_SE 86 57 71 -5 0.56 2 Tipton_Ag 86 55 70 -4 0.37 2 79 East Central (6) Farmland 86 55 71 -2 0.09 3 72 New_Castle 82 56 70 -4 0.30 4 Southwest (7) Evansville 86 61 75 -4 2.08 3 Freelandville 85 63 73 -3 1.45 3 Shoals_8S 85 55 70 -6 1.73 3 Stendal 86 62 75 -3 2.32 3 Vincennes_5NE 87 60 73 -3 0.79 4 78 South Central (8) Leavenworth 85 62 73 -3 3.21 5 Oolitic 84 56 71 -5 0.56 2 72 Tell_City 84 63 74 -4 1.83 4 Southeast (9) Brookville 86 57 72 -3 0.91 2 Greensburg 86 59 73 +0 2.19 2 Seymour 86 58 72 -3 1.95 1 ----------------------------------------------------- Weather Information Table (Continued) Week ending Sunday, August 2, 2009 ------------------------------------------------- | Accumulation |-------------------------------- | April 1, 2009 thru Station | August 2, 2009 |-------------------------------- | Precipitation |GDD Base 50oF |-------------------------------- | | | | | |Total | DFN |Days|Total| DFN ------------------------------------------------- Northwest (1) Chalmers_5W 16.23 +0.77 51 1646 -283 Francesville 17.32 +1.83 48 1596 -175 Valparaiso_AP_I 13.73 -2.55 48 1667 -72 Wanatah 15.57 -0.27 51 1510 -151 Winamac 13.03 -2.46 49 1637 -134 North Central (2) Plymouth 15.03 -1.16 61 1550 -298 South_Bend 16.45 +1.26 47 1664 -58 Young_America 17.12 +2.18 42 1691 -120 Northeast (3) Fort_Wayne 16.09 +2.01 51 1760 -46 Kendallville 15.39 +0.55 56 1767 +72 West Central (4) Greencastle 26.41 +8.70 55 1653 -393 Perrysville 23.45 +6.58 53 1894 -24 Spencer_Ag 27.28 +9.17 56 1836 -87 Terre_Haute_AFB 19.97 +2.85 49 2060 +17 W_Lafayette_6NW 20.42 +4.90 53 1796 -15 Central (5) Eagle_Creek_AP 21.93 +6.00 53 2011 -13 Greenfield 24.60 +7.09 55 1795 -138 Indianapolis_AP 25.33 +9.40 53 2073 +49 Indianapolis_SE 26.94 +10.36 56 1788 -216 Tipton_Ag 21.51 +5.79 56 1690 -66 East Central (6) Farmland 15.66 +0.17 52 1715 +7 New_Castle 18.32 +1.29 52 1650 -97 Southwest (7) Evansville 22.35 +5.81 51 2409 +37 Freelandville 27.39 +10.25 51 2085 -30 Shoals_8S 27.42 +8.86 51 1892 -141 Stendal 29.38 +11.09 50 2366 +144 Vincennes_5NE 26.66 +9.52 55 2169 +54 South Central (8) Leavenworth 26.02 +7.24 70 2085 +57 Oolitic 24.99 +7.39 59 1895 -44 Tell_City 23.58 +4.97 51 2253 +2 Southeast (9) Brookville 18.30 +1.31 50 1964 +133 Greensburg 24.22 +7.17 56 2050 +157 Seymour 22.56 +5.52 49 1878 -73 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Copyright 2009: Agricultural Weather Information Service, Inc. All rights reserved. DFN = Departure From Normal GDD = Growing Degree Days. Precipitation (Rainfall or melted snow/ice) in inches. Precipitation Days = Days with precip of .01 inch or more. Air Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit. For more weather inrformation, visit www.awis.com or call 1-888-798-9955.