CROPS


KANSAS AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE

Kansas Department of Agriculture

PO Box 3534

Topeka, KS 66601-3534

Phone: 785-233-2230


Released: September 10, 2004

Volume 04, No. 9



Record High Corn and Soybean Production Forecast


Kansas corn production is forecast at a record high 420.5 million bushels, unchanged from August 1 but up 40 percent from the previous year’s production of 300.0 million bushels. Planted acreage is 3.25 million acres, up 350,000 acres from a year ago. Acreage expected to be harvested for grain is 2.90 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but 16 percent above last year. Corn yields are expected to average 145 bushels per acre, unchanged from the August forecast but 25 bushels above last year’s yield. Twenty-one percent of the State’s corn was mature as of August 29, compared to 35 percent last year and 34 percent for the 5-year average. Condition of the crop was rated 76 percent good to excellent, 16 percent fair, and 8 percent poor to very poor.


Sorghum grain production is forecast at 210.0 million bushels, up 4 percent from August 1 and 61 percent above last year’s production of 130.5 million bushels. Kansas leads the Nation in sorghum production. Yields are expected to average 75 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from the August forecast and 30 bushels above last year's yield. Planted acreage is 3.1 million acres, down 450,000 acres from 2003. The acreage for harvest at 2.8 million acres, is unchanged from the August forecast but down 100,000 acres from 2003. As of August 29, 34 percent of the sorghum acreage was turning color, compared to 37 percent last year and the average of 53 percent. Three percent of the acreage across the State was mature, compared to 6 percent last year and 13 percent for the 5-year average. Condition of the crop was 69 percent good to excellent, 22 percent fair, and 9 percent poor to very poor.


Soybean production is forecast at 94.4 million bushels, up 9 percent from August 1, 65 percent larger than last year’s crop, and a record high for Kansas. Acreage for harvest is expected to total 2.55 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 3 percent from last year. Yields are expected to average 37 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from August 1 and 14 bushels above 2003. This equals the record high yields of 1992, 1996, and 1997. Three percent of the acreage was dropping leaves as of August 29, compared to 18 percent last year. Condition was rated 80 percent good to excellent, 16 percent fair, and 4 percent poor to very poor.



Kansas Crop Production, September 1, 2004

Crop &

Unit

Planted 1/

Harvested

Yield per Acre 2/

Production

2003

2004

2003

2004

2003

2004

2003

2004

 

1,000 Acres

Per Unit

(000's)

Winter Wheat, bu. 3/

10,400

9,900

10,000

8,700

48

36

480,000

313,200

Corn Grain, bu.

2,900

3,250

2,500

2,900

120

145

300,000

420,500

Sorghum Grain, bu.

3,550

3,100

2,900

2,800

45

75

130,500

210,000

Soybeans, bu.

2,600

2,700

2,480

2,550

23

37

57,040

94,350

Potatoes, Summer, cwt.

2.8

3.2

2.7

3.1

380

400

1,026

1,240

Cotton, 480 lb. bales 3/ 4/

90.0

100.0

80.0

5/

537

5/

89.5

5/

All Hay, tons 3/

-

-

3,250

3,100

2.15

2.68

7,000

8,320

Alfalfa Hay, tons 3/

-

-

1,000

900

3.40

4.60

3,400

4,140

Other Hay, tons 3/

-

-

2,250

2,200

1.60

1.90

3,600

4,180

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Production divided by harvested acres rounded to whole bushels. 3/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast. 4/ Yield in pounds. 5/ Harvested acres, yield and production will be published in the “Crop Production 2004 Summary”.



U.S. Crop Production


UNITED STATES: Corn production is forecast at 11.0 billion bushels, up fractionally from last month and 8 percent above 2003. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 149.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel per acre from August and 7.2 bushels above last year. If realized, both the yield and production would be the largest on record. The previous record for both was set last year when production was estimated at 10.1 billion bushels and yield was 142.2 bushels per acre. Acreage for harvest as grain is estimated at 73.4 million acres, unchanged from August but up 3 percent from 2003.


Production of sorghum grain is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 2 percent from August and up 15 percent from 2003. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain, at 6.92 million acres, is unchanged from August but 11 percent lower than the 2003 harvested grain acreage. The forecast U.S. yield, at 68.3 bushels per acre, is up 1.1 bushels from August and 15.6 bushels from 2003.


Soybean production is forecast at 2.84 billion bushels, down 1 percent from August 1 but 17 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be the second highest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 38.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from August. Acreage for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but up 2 percent from 2003.


All wheat production is placed at 2.12 billion bushels, unchanged from the August forecast but 9 percent below 2003. The U.S. yield is forecast at 42.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.



United States Crop Production, September 1, 2004

Crop &

Unit

Planted 1/

Harvested

Yield per Acre

Production

2003

2004

2003

2004

2003

2004

2003

2004

 

1,000 Acres

Per Unit

(000's)

All Wheat, bu. 2/

61,700

59,719

52,839

50,556

44.2

42.0

2,336,526

2,122,894

Corn Grain, bu.

78,736

80,968

71,139

73,377

142.2

149.4

10,113,887

10,960,710

Sorghum Grain, bu.

9,420

8,099

7,798

6,916

52.7

68.3

411,237

472,269

Soybeans, bu.

73,404

74,809

72,321

73,655

33.4

38.5

2,417,565

2,835,989

Potatoes, Summer, cwt.

63.4

58.8

58.7

55.1

320.0

336.0

18,766

18,487

Cotton, All, 480 lb. Bales

13,479.6

13,763.0

12,003.4

13,223.0

730.0

758.0

18,255.2

20,895.0

All Hay, tons 2/

-

-

63,342

61,589

2.48

2.63

157,123

161,763

Alfalfa Hay, tons 2/

-

-

23,578

22,226

3.24

3.48

76,307

77,264

Other Hay, tons 2/

-

-

39,764

39,363

2.03

2.15

80,816

84,499

1/ Planted for all purposes. 2/ Estimate carried forward from earlier forecast.



Kansas Crop Production Forecast, September 1, 2004, by Districts

Crop And District

Acres Planted,

All Purposes

Acres Harvested

for Grain

Yield

per Acre

Production

2003

2004

2003

2004

% Prev.

Year

2003

2004

2003

2004

% Prev.

Year

 

------------ 1,000 Acres ------------

 

Bushels

1,000 Bushels

 

CORN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Northwest

435

515

303

430

142

121

133

36,595

57,000

156

West Central

183

215

130

180

138

114

125

14,815

22,500

152

Southwest

670

700

616

635

103

174

190

107,340

120,500

112

North Central

161

210

122

185

152

102

123

12,395

22,700

183

Central

109

135

83

115

139

121

154

10,040

17,700

176

South Central

350

350

324

320

99

157

161

50,770

51,500

101

Northeast

472

515

428

465

109

70

130

29,880

60,500

202

East Central

271

295

252

270

107

70

121

17,720

32,600

184

Southeast

249

315

242

300

124

84

118

20,445

35,500

174

State

2,900

3,250

2,500

2,900

116

120

145

300,000

420,500

140

SOYBEANS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Northwest

56

85

51

81

159

42

45

2,134

3,620

170

West Central

18

24

17

23

135

37

35

635

800

126

Southwest

73

92

71

88

124

52

56

3,682

4,910

133

North Central

243

237

226

221

98

21

31

4,783

6,780

142

Central

173

229

159

215

135

21

38

3,405

8,160

240

South Central

225

249

218

232

106

36

46

7,895

10,610

134

Northeast

607

567

582

540

93

23

38

13,102

20,260

155

East Central

615

617

582

580

100

18

37

10,236

21,200

207

Southeast

590

600

574

570

99

19

32

11,168

18,010

161

State

2,600

2,700

2,480

2,550

103

23

37

57,040

94,350

165



Kansas Ranked 6th in Agricultural Exports


Kansas dropped to sixth place among the 50 states as an exporter of agricultural products during fiscal year (FY) 2003, according to data released by the Economics Research Service, USDA, and Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. Exports from six out of the top ten states increased. The total value of Kansas exports, at nearly $3.0 billion, is down 2 percent from the previous fiscal year. Most of the value decrease came from the Sunflower Seed & Oil , Feed Grains & Products, Soybeans & Products, and Feeds & Fodders categories. Kansas accounted for 5.3 percent of the $56.2 billion U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2003.


Kansas was ranked in first place for Wheat & Products and Feeds & Fodders. The export numbers show Kansas ranking second in the Nation for Live Animals & Meat, Hides & Skins, and Animal Fats. Other top ten rankings for Kansas were Sunflower Seed & Oil (third place with $7.3 million), Seed (fourth place with $38.1 million), and Feed Grains & Products (sixth place with $401.9 million).


Live Animals & Meat comprised 28 percent of the total Kansas exports and 13 percent of all U.S. Live Animal & Meat exports. Wheat & Products accounted for 25 percent of the State total and 14 percent of the National All Wheat & Products exports. Feed Grains & Products tallied 14 and 6 percent of the State and National exports, respectively.

The United States exported $56.2 billion of agricultural commodities in FY 2003, up 5 percent from 2002. California continued to lead the Nation in agricultural exports at $8.2 billion. Iowa ranked second, followed by Texas, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Washington, North Dakota, and Indiana. Agricultural export estimates by State are based on the assumption that if a State contributes a certain percentage of U.S. production, it contributes a similar percentage of export revenues. When appropriate, however, supplemental data (Customs district data, domestic use data, and the Census of Agriculture data, for example) were used to adjust the export share.



Kansas Agricultural Exports

Commodity

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

 

Million Dollars

Wheat & Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

816.0

744.4

618.4

699.2

756.2

Feed Grains & Prod.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

522.6

512.2

472.4

522.0

401.9

Live Animals & Meat

(Excluding Poultry). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

748.7


957.8

     

881.6


748.5


842.3

Hides & Skins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

202.9

278.7

387.9

319.2

333.2

Soybeans & Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

178.4

203.4

123.5

221.6

175.7

Feeds & Fodders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

298.5

307.3

338.8

343.1

287.6

Animal Fats. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

104.5

80.4

62.9

79.3

101.2

Seeds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33.5

39.3

34.7

43.2

38.1

Sunflower Seed & Oil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

16.6

22.8

15.7

25.0

7.3

Dairy Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

2.5

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

14.2

15.1

17.3

16.8

26.1

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,938.4

3,162.1

2,953.2

3,017.9

2,969.6



Dave Ranek & Quentin Wearne, Agricultural Statisticians

Eldon J. Thiessen, Director

Eddie Wells, Deputy Director