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September 29, 2006

Soybean & Wheat Stocks Sharply Above Year Ago

Columbia, MO - Missouri old crop soybean stocks in all positions on September 1, 2006 totaled 23.2 million bushels, 48 percent above a year earlier and the highest for this date since the record set in 1986. On-farm stocks in the State totaled 11.5 million bushels, while 11.7 million bushels were in off-farm positions.

Total old crop corn in all positions in Missouri on September 1, 2006 amounted to 36.4 million bushels, down 36 percent from the high level of a year earlier. On-farm stocks accounted for 14 million bushels, while off-farm positions totaled 22.4 million bushels.

September 1, 2006 wheat stocks in Missouri totaled 39.3 million bushels, up 67 percent from a year ago and the highest for the date since 2001. There were 5.6 million bushels on farms and 33.7 million bushels were in commercial facilities.

Old crop sorghum stocks in Missouri on September 1 totaled 636,000 bushels, 38 percent less than a year ago and the lowest for this date in over 45 years. Sorghum on farms accounted for 250,000 bushels, while 386,000 bushels were off-farm.

U.S. Grain Stocks

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions in the United States on September 1, 2006 totaled 449 million bushels, up 75 percent from September 1, 2005. This is the largest September 1 stocks level since 1986. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 176 million bushels, up 77 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 272 million bushels, are up 75 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for June - August 2006 totaled 542 million bushels, up 22 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2005 soybean production is revised to 3.06 billion bushels, down 23.2 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted and harvested areas are revised down 110,000 acres to 72.0 million and 71.3 million acres, respectively. The 2005 yield, at 43.0 bushels per acre, is down 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate.

Corn stocks in all positions in the U.S. on September 1, 2006 totaled 1.97 billion bushels, down 7 percent from September 1, 2005. Of the total stocks, 750 million bushels are stored on farms, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 1.22 billion bushels, are down 6 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2006 indicated disappearance is 2.39 billion bushels, compared with 2.21 billion bushels during the same period last year.

All wheat stored in the U.S. in all positions on September 1, 2006 totaled 1.74 billion bushels, down 9 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 572 million bushels, down 21 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, at 1.17 billion bushels, are down 3 percent from a year ago. The June - August 2006 indicated disappearance is 640 million bushels, down 11 percent from the same period a year earlier. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on September 1, 2006 totaled 63.4 million bushels, down 37 percent from a year ago. This is the lowest September 1 stocks since records began in 1962.

Oats stored in all positions in the U.S. on September 1, 2006 totaled 99.2 million bushels, 13 percent below the stocks on September 1, 2005. Of the total stocks on hand, 59.9 million bushels are stored on farms, 16 percent lower than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 39.3 million bushels, 6 percent below the previous year. Indicated disappearance during June - August 2006 totaled 47.1 million bushels, compared with 59.3 million bushels during the same period a year ago.

Grain sorghum stored in all positions in the U.S. on September 1, 2006 totaled 65.2 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 5.25 million bushels, are down 11 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 59.9 million bushels, are up 17 percent from September 1, 2005. The June - August 2006 indicated disappearance from all positions is 49.7 million bushels, down 12 percent from the same period a year ago.

2006 Small Grain Estimates

Missouri winter wheat production in 2006 totaled 49.1 million bushels, up 69 percent from last year’s production and 7 percent above the August 1 forecast. Of the 1 million planted acres, farmers harvested 910,000 acres for grain, 40,000 more than previously forecast. Missouri yields equaled last year’s 54 bushels per acre, 1 bushel above the August 1 projection.

Missouri oat production in 2006 totaled 1.82 million bushels, 40 percent larger than the 2005 crop. Of the 40,000 planted acres, 28,000 were harvested for grain. State oat yields averaged 65 bushels per acre, equaling the 2005 average and just 2 bushels below the record of 2003.

All wheat production in the U.S. totals 1.81 billion bushels in 2006, up 1 percent from the last forecast but 14 percent below 2005. Grain area is 46.8 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is 38.7 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from August but down 3.3 bushels from last year. The level of production and change from last year by type are: winter wheat, 1.30 billion bushels, down 13 percent; other spring wheat, 460 million bushels, down 9 percent; Durum wheat, 53.5 million bushels, down 47 percent.

Oat production in the U.S. is estimated at a record low 93.8 million bushels, 13 percent below the August 1 forecast and 18 percent below last year’s 115 million bushels. The estimated yield is 59.5 bushels per acre, up 3.2 bushels from August but down 3.5 bushels from a year ago. Compared with last year, yields declined in nearly all States except for those in the eastern Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and the Pacific Northwest. Harvested area is a record low 1.58 million acres, 17 percent below the August 1 forecast and 14 percent below last year.

Missouri Wheat Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu./acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 32.0 47.5 30.1 46.0 49.8 56 1,500 2,570
NC 39.0 82.5 35.4 79.0 50.6 58 1,790 4,570
NE 45.5 118.0 42.3 112.0 57.9 64 2,450 7,160
WC 65.5 140.0 62.5 134.0 50.2 48 3,140 6,420
C 56.0 121.0 49.4 106.0 50.2 50 2,480 5,290
EC 42.5 71.0 39.4 66.0 49.5 53 1,950 3,480
SW 87.0 131.5 76.4 111.0 49.1 31 3,750 3,420
SC 8.5 10.5 6.0 7.0 57.3 46 344 320
SE 214.0 278.0 198.5 249.0 59.2 64 11,756 15,910
STATE 590.0 1,000.0 540.0 910.0 54.0 54 29,160 49,140