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October 12, 2006

Missouri Corn and Soybean Yields Holding Steady From September Forecast

Columbia, MO - "Missouri corn and soybean yields are averaging similar to what farmers expected a month ago," says Gene Danekas, Director, Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Although the summer drought took its toll in many west-central and southern counties, crop yields in most northern and southeastern counties are turning out surprisingly well.”

Missouri soybean production is forecast at 211 million bushels based on October 1 conditions, unchanged from a month ago but 16 percent above the revised 2005 production. A downward revision in the 2005 acreage to 4.95 million planted and 4.91 million harvested acres caused a small reduction in the estimate for the 2005 crop. A State yield of 41 bushels per acre is expected for this year, also unchanged from September but 4 bushels above last year's yield.

Corn production in Missouri is forecast at 369 million bushels, down 2 percent from the September forecast but 12 percent above last year's production. The production decline from September is the result of a revision in acreage to 2.7 million planted acres and 2.6 million acres for grain. The forecast yield of 142 bushels is unchanged from the September forecast but 31 bushels above the 2005 yield. The best yields appear to be in the southeast district and across the northern third of the State, while expectations are the lowest in the west-central and south-central districts where corn suffered more from the drought.

Missouri grain sorghum production is forecast at 7.41 million bushels, down 29 percent from the September forecast and 25 percent below last year. Planted and harvested acres were both revised down by 30,000 to 100,000 and 95,000, respectively. A yield of 78 bushels per acre is forecast, 5 bushels below last month’s yield but 2 bushels above the 2005 yield.

Cotton production in Missouri is forecast at 1,030,000 bales, 4 percent below the September 1 forecast but 19 percent above the 2005 production. The projected yield of 989 pounds is 43 pounds less than a month earlier but 42 pounds above last year's yield.

Rice production in the State is expected to total a record 14.3 million cwt, down 3 percent from September but 2 percent more than the previous record of 2005. A yield of 6,700 pounds per acre is forecast, 200 pounds below a month earlier but 100 pounds more than the 2005 yield.

Missouri pecan production is forecast at 1.5 million pounds, 42 percent less than in 2005.

The production of all hay in Missouri is expected to total 7.1 million tons, 6 percent above last year. The forecast yield of 1.8 tons per acre is up from the 2005 yield of 1.68 tons.

U.S. Soybean Production Up From September, Corn Down Slightly

Soybean production in the United States is forecast at 3.19 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from the 2005 crop. If realized, this would be the highest production on record. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.8 bushels per acre, up 1.0 bushel from September but down 0.2 bushel from last year’s record high yield. Based on administrative information, acreage updates were made in several States with soybean planted area now at 75.6 million acres, up 1 percent from June and up 5 percent from 2005. Expected area for harvest, at 74.5 million acres, is up 1 percent from September and 5 percent above 2005.

Corn production in the U.S. is forecast at 10.9 billion bushels, down 2 percent from both last month and 2005. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from September but 5.6 bushels higher than last year. If realized, the yield would be the second largest on record, behind 2004. Based on administrative information, corn planted acres were revised to 78.6 million acres, down 1 percent from June. Harvested for grain area, at 71.0 million acres, is down 1 percent from September.

Production of sorghum in the U.S. is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 1 percent from last month and down 24 percent from last year. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 5.32 million acres, a slight increase from September but down 7 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, the sorghum yield forecast is 56.6 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from September and down 12.1 bushels from last year.

All Cotton production in the U.S. is forecast at 20.7 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month but down 14 percent from last year’s record high production. Yield is expected to average 774 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds from last month but down 57 pounds from last year. The October harvested area is expected to total 12.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 7 percent from 2005.

The nation’s rice 1production is forecast at 192 million cwt, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 14 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.82 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 16 percent from 2005. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 6,811 pounds per acre, down 35 pounds per acre from last month but up 175 pounds from last year.

The October 1, 2006 forecast of pecan utilized production in the U.S. is 201 million pounds (in-shell basis), down 28 percent from last year’s crop but 8 percent above 2004. Improved varieties are expected to produce 150 million pounds or 74 percent of the total, while native and seedling varieties, at 51.7 million pounds, make up the remaining 26 percent.

Production of all hay in the U.S. is forecast at 147 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast but down 2 percent from 2005. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 2.35 tons, up 0.08 ton from the August forecast but down 0.09 ton from last year. Harvested area, at 62.7 million acres, is unchanged from August but up 2 percent from the previous year.

Missouri Soybean Production and Yield by District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
20051/ 2006 20051/ 20062/ 2005 20062/ 20051/ 20062/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu-
NW 956.3 995 950.8 986 44.7 47 42,494 46,000
NC 724.1 737 720.0 730 36.9 44 26,564 32,400
NE 805.8 847 799.4 839 33.2 43 26,536 36,100
WC 541.1 577 537.4 572 36.8 33 19,773 18,900
C 516.2 545 510.2 540 32.7 36 16,681 19,600
EC 332.0 357 325.1 353 35.2 42 11,442 15,000
SW 153.6 159 150.7 157 28.1 19 4,234 3,050
SC 33.9 40 33.6 39 35.7 36 1,199 1,400
SE 887.0 943 882.8 934 37.1 41 32,747 38,700
STATE 4,950.0 5,200 4,910.0 5,150 37.0 41 181,670 211,150
1/ Revised
2/ October 1 Forecast


Missouri Corn Production and Yield by District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2005 2006 2005 20062/ 2005 20062/ 2005 20062/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu-
NW 730.5 682 718.9 672 136.7 149 98,277 99,900
NC 332.6 297 321.6 290 109.9 146 35,343 42,400
NE 534.3 465 502.1 443 67.8 142 34,050 62,900
WC 323.1 279 311.3 267 115.6 116 35,974 31,100
C 388.9 331 363.0 314 92.7 130 33,645 40,700
EC 237.1 210 225.2 200 95.8 138 21,569 27,600
SW 102.3 94 88.0 84 91.1 127 8,021 10,700
SC 21.9 21 17.5 16 120.5 106 2,108 1,700
SE 429.3 321 422.4 314 143.7 166 60,683 52,200
STATE 3,100.0 2,700 2,970.0 2,600 111.0 142 329,670 369,200
2/ October 1 Forecast