December 27, 2007

Missouri Hog and Pig Inventory 9 Percent Above Year Earlier

(COLUMBIA, MO) -The December 1, 2007 inventory of hogs and pigs in Missouri is estimated at 3.05 million head, up 250,000 head from a year ago but 50,000 head below the September 1, 2007 inventory. “The continued increase in hog numbers which began in September 2006 has stalled”, said Gene Danekas Director of Missouri Agricultural Statistics. “This is still the largest December 1 total inventory since 1999.” Breeding hogs are estimated at 370,000 head, up 10,000 head from a year ago but down 10,000 head from last quarter. Market hogs are estimated at 2.68 million head, up 240,000 head from the same period last year but 40,000 head below September 1, 2007.

The September-November 2007 pig crop totaled 1.71 million head, up 9 percent from the same quarter a year earlier and from the comparable period two years ago. There were 185,000 sows farrowed during this quarter with an average of 9.25 pigs per litter. Farrowing intentions for December 2007-February 2008 are forecast at 180,000 sows, unchanged from the actual farrowings during the same period last year but 15,000 sows more than two years ago. March-May 2008 farrowings are also forecast at 180,000 sows, 15,000 sows less than the actual farrowings during that period last year but 10,000 sows more than two years ago.

United States Hog Inventory up 4 Percent

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2007 was 65.1 million head. This was up 4 percent from December 1, 2006, but down 1 percent from September 1, 2007. Breeding inventory, at 6.16 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.0 million head, was up 5 percent from last year, but down 1 percent from last quarter.

The September-November 2007 pig crop, at 28.0 million head, was up 4 percent from 2006 and up 7 percent from 2005. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.03 million head, up 3 percent from 2006 and up 4 percent from 2005. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.24 for the September-November 2007 period, compared to 9.11 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers farrowing intentions are to have 2.98 million sows farrow during the December 2007-February 2008 quarter, up 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2007, and up 5 percent from 2006. Intended farrowings for March-May 2008, at 3.04 million sows, are up slightly from 2007 and up 4 percent from 2006.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 39 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 38 percent last year.