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August 12, 2008

Corn and Soybean Acreage for Harvest Larger Than Anticipated

Columbia, MO -"After a challenging planting season with below-normal temperatures followed by near-record rainfall, producers are expecting an overall average or better outcome. Flooding in many areas created larger than usual acreage losses in a year when every acre is needed." said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Our re-interview of farmers indicated that, while Missouri farmers didn’t plant all the corn they intended, they now expect to harvest more corn acres than were anticipated in June. Soybean acreage for harvest also increased from June.”

Missouri corn plantings are estimated at 2.80 million acres, 19 percent below last year and 3 percent below the June 1 estimate. Corn acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 2.60 million acres, down 20 percent from 2007 but 4 percent above the June estimate. Based on conditions as of August 1, yield per harvested acre is forecast at 146 bushels, second only to the 162 bushels per acre harvested in 2004 and 14 bushels above the 5-year average. Production is forecast at 380 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 18 percent below a year ago but still the fourth largest corn crop on record.

Soybean planted acreage in Missouri is estimated at 5.30 million acres, 15 percent above 2007 and unchanged from the June 1 estimate. This is the largest planted acreage since 1999. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.10 million acres, 12 percent above last year and 2 percent above the June 1 forecast but virtually unchanged from the 5.11 million acres harvested in 2006. Yield is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, the same as 2007 but down one bushel per acre from 2006. Production is forecast at 189 million bushels, 12 percent above 2007 but 3 percent below 2006. This would be the third largest soybean crop on record.

Missouri winter wheat producers harvested 1.12 million acres of the 1.20 million acres planted last fall. Harvested acreage is up 27 percent from the previous year and 23 percent above 2006. This is the largest harvested acreage since 1998. Yield per harvested acre is forecast at 50 bushels, 7 bushels per acre more than a year earlier but 4 bushels per acre below 2006. Production is forecast at 56.0 million bushels, 48 percent above last year and 14 percent above 2006.

The total area of all hay to be harvested in Missouri is forecast at 4.15 million acres, 2 percent above last year and slightly above 2006. Harvested acres of alfalfa are forecast at 400,000 acres which are expected to produce 1.20 million tons with a yield of 3.00 tons per acre. Other hay harvested acres are forecast at 3.75 million acres. Production of other hay is forecast at 7.5 million tons from a yield of 2.00 tons per acre. Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 300,000 acres, down 22 percent, from last years and the lowest level since 1990. Producers expect to harvest 299,000 acres. A yield of 963 pounds per acre is forecast, the third highest yield on record behind 2004 and 2007. The resulting 600,000 480-pound bales would be 21 percent below last year and the lowest production since 1996. Planted acres of Missouri rice are estimated at 200,000 acres, 11 percent above 2007. Harvested acres are forecast at 199,000 acres. A record yield of 7,300 pounds per acre is forecast. If realized, this would result in a production of 14.5 million hundredweight.

Planted acres of sorghum in Missouri are estimated at 110,000 acres, the same as a year earlier but 10 percent above 2006. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 105,000 acres, also unchanged from last year and 10,000 acres above 2006. A yield of 93 bushels per acre is expected which would result in a production of 9.77 million bushels, 3 percent below 2007 but 21 percent above 2006. Missouri tobacco farmers set 1,450 acres of tobacco in 2008, down 150 acres from last year. Yield is expected to be 2,100 pounds per acre and production is forecast at 3.05 million pounds, down 18 percent from last year and down 10 percent from 2006.

 

United States Crops

U. S. corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933.

U. S. soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year but down 7 percent from the record high production of 2006. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2007.

U. S. upland cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, 28 percent below 2007. Winter wheat production in the U. S. is forecast at 1.87 billion bushels. This is up 1 percent from last month and 24 percent above 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 46.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and up 4.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 40.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 12 percent from last year. U. S. rice production is forecast at 205 million hundredweight, up 4 percent from the 197 million hundredweight produced a year earlier.

Missouri Soybean Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 870 1,000 864 980 43 39 36,954 38,600
NC 684 745 678 660 42 37 29,305 24,200
NE 746 865 742 840 37 33 27,574 27,370
WC 490 585 479 580 34 34 16,260 19,700
C 465 530 457 520 36 39 16,445 20,530
EC 305 365 303 330 32 39 9,641 12,730
SW 140 170 139 167 36 33 4,965 5,500
SC 36 40 34 38 23 36 778 1,370
SE 864 1,000 854 985 32 39 27,428 38,700
STATE 4,600 5,300 4,550 5,100 37 37 168,350 188,700
1/ August 1 Forecast
Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 835.5 645 797.0 595 134 146 107,033 87,040
NC 383.5 295 329.0 260 142 144 46,691 37,495
NE 576.5 460 550.0 430 135 133 74,388 57,000
WC 335.0 305 310.5 290 137 131 42,503 38,130
C 398.0 350 375.0 335 143 149 53,468 50,080
EC 250.0 235 239.0 200 127 140 30,451 27,980
SW 99.0 85 88.3 78 129 131 11,363 10,240
SC 24.0 20 21.2 17 118 120 2,506 2,040
SE 548.5 405 540.0 395 172 176 93,097 69,595
STATE 3,450.0 2,800 3,250.0 2,600 142 146 461,500 379,600
1/ August 1 Forecast
Missouri Wheat Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 65 70 50 64 40.0 42 2,000 2,675
NC 95 100 83 96 51.1 45 4,240 4,290
NE 133 140 124 129 57.0 52 7,070 6,695
WC 150 170 125 167 38.0 43 4,750 7,170
C 134 140 111 127 45.5 48 5,050 6,085
EC 77 80 66 70 44.1 51 2,910 3,550
SW 130 150 104 142 28.7 47 2,980 6,660
SC 11 15 7 14 30.0 48 210 675
SE 255 335 210 311 41.1 59 8,630 18,200
STATE 1,050 1,200 880 1,120 43.0 50 37,840 56,000
1/ August 1 Forecast