August 12, 2008

Corn and Soybean Acreage for Harvest Larger Than Anticipated

Columbia, MO -"After a challenging planting season with below-normal temperatures followed by near-record rainfall, producers are expecting an overall average or better outcome. Flooding in many areas created larger than usual acreage losses in a year when every acre is needed." said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Our re-interview of farmers indicated that, while Missouri farmers didn’t plant all the corn they intended, they now expect to harvest more corn acres than were anticipated in June. Soybean acreage for harvest also increased from June.”

Missouri corn plantings are estimated at 2.80 million acres, 19 percent below last year and 3 percent below the June 1 estimate. Corn acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 2.60 million acres, down 20 percent from 2007 but 4 percent above the June estimate. Based on conditions as of August 1, yield per harvested acre is forecast at 146 bushels, second only to the 162 bushels per acre harvested in 2004 and 14 bushels above the 5-year average. Production is forecast at 380 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 18 percent below a year ago but still the fourth largest corn crop on record.

Soybean planted acreage in Missouri is estimated at 5.30 million acres, 15 percent above 2007 and unchanged from the June 1 estimate. This is the largest planted acreage since 1999. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.10 million acres, 12 percent above last year and 2 percent above the June 1 forecast but virtually unchanged from the 5.11 million acres harvested in 2006. Yield is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, the same as 2007 but down one bushel per acre from 2006. Production is forecast at 189 million bushels, 12 percent above 2007 but 3 percent below 2006. This would be the third largest soybean crop on record.

Missouri winter wheat producers harvested 1.12 million acres of the 1.20 million acres planted last fall. Harvested acreage is up 27 percent from the previous year and 23 percent above 2006. This is the largest harvested acreage since 1998. Yield per harvested acre is forecast at 50 bushels, 7 bushels per acre more than a year earlier but 4 bushels per acre below 2006. Production is forecast at 56.0 million bushels, 48 percent above last year and 14 percent above 2006.

The total area of all hay to be harvested in Missouri is forecast at 4.15 million acres, 2 percent above last year and slightly above 2006. Harvested acres of alfalfa are forecast at 400,000 acres which are expected to produce 1.20 million tons with a yield of 3.00 tons per acre. Other hay harvested acres are forecast at 3.75 million acres. Production of other hay is forecast at 7.5 million tons from a yield of 2.00 tons per acre. Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 300,000 acres, down 22 percent, from last years and the lowest level since 1990. Producers expect to harvest 299,000 acres. A yield of 963 pounds per acre is forecast, the third highest yield on record behind 2004 and 2007. The resulting 600,000 480-pound bales would be 21 percent below last year and the lowest production since 1996. Planted acres of Missouri rice are estimated at 200,000 acres, 11 percent above 2007. Harvested acres are forecast at 199,000 acres. A record yield of 7,300 pounds per acre is forecast. If realized, this would result in a production of 14.5 million hundredweight.

Planted acres of sorghum in Missouri are estimated at 110,000 acres, the same as a year earlier but 10 percent above 2006. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 105,000 acres, also unchanged from last year and 10,000 acres above 2006. A yield of 93 bushels per acre is expected which would result in a production of 9.77 million bushels, 3 percent below 2007 but 21 percent above 2006. Missouri tobacco farmers set 1,450 acres of tobacco in 2008, down 150 acres from last year. Yield is expected to be 2,100 pounds per acre and production is forecast at 3.05 million pounds, down 18 percent from last year and down 10 percent from 2006.

 

United States Crops

U. S. corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but 17 percent above 2006. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 155.0 bushels per acre, up 3.9 bushels from last year. If realized, this yield would be the second highest on record, behind 2004. Production would be the second highest on record, behind last year when producers harvested the most acres of corn for grain since 1933.

U. S. soybean production is forecast at 2.97 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year but down 7 percent from the record high production of 2006. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.5 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2007.

U. S. upland cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, 28 percent below 2007. Winter wheat production in the U. S. is forecast at 1.87 billion bushels. This is up 1 percent from last month and 24 percent above 2007. The U.S. yield is forecast at 46.6 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and up 4.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 40.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 12 percent from last year. U. S. rice production is forecast at 205 million hundredweight, up 4 percent from the 197 million hundredweight produced a year earlier.