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September 12, 2008

Corn Yield Declines From Month Earlier, Soybeans Unchanged

COLUMBIA, MO - "The continued cool, damp weather has reduced the expectations for Missouri’s corn crop while soybean projections remain unchanged" said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "As both crops continue to mature about two weeks behind normal, concerns are switching to the potential frost date that normally reaches the northern half of Missouri during the first 10 days of October”

Based on conditions as of September 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 142 bushels, unchanged from a year ago but 4 bushels per acre below the August 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 369 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 20 percent below a year ago and down 3 percent from the August 1 forecast. This would be the fourth largest Missouri corn crop on record. Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 2.60 million acres, down 20 percent from 2007 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, the same as 2007 and the August 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 189 million bushels, 12 percent above 2007 but unchanged from August 1. This would be the third largest Missouri soybean crop on record. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.10 million acres, 12 percent above last year but unchanged from the August 1 forecast.

Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 310,000 acres, down 18 percent, from last year but 3 percent above the August 1 estimate. This would be the lowest planted level since 1990. Producers expect to harvest 307,000 acres, 19 percent below last year but 3 percent above the August 1 estimate. A yield of 969 pounds per acre is forecast, the second highest yield on record behind 2004 when 1,054 pound per acre were picked. The resulting 620,000 480-pound bales would be 19 percent below last year but 3 percent above the August 1 estimate. A record yield of 7,100 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 200 pounds per acre above the previous record yield set last year, but down 200 pounds per acre from the August 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in a record production of 14.1 million hundredweight, slightly above the previous record production set in 2005. Long grain rice planted acres are estimated at 198,000 acres while harvested acres are forecast at 197,000 acres. This would be 11 percent above a year earlier. Medium grain rice planted and harvested acres are expected to be 2,000 acres, twice what was planted and harvested last year. A yield of 95 bushels per acre is expected for Missouri sorghum for grain which would result in a production of 9.98 million bushels, 1 percent below 2007 but 2 percent above the August 1 estimate. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 105,000 acres, unchanged from last year and August 1. Missouri summer potato planted acres are estimated at 6,700 acres, down 100 acres from 2007 but 2,700 acres above the August 1 estimate. Harvested acres are forecast at 6,000 acres, down 600 acres from a year earlier but 2,600 acres above the August 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 1.44 million cwt., 27 percent below last year but 54 percent above the previous estimate on August 1. Yield is forecast at 240 cwt. per acre, 60 cwt. below last year and 35 cwt. below the August 1 estimate.

United States Crops

U. S. corn production is forecast at 12.1 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last month and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 152.3 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from August but 1.2 bushels above last year. If realized, yield will be the second highest on record, behind 2004, while production will be the second largest, behind last year.

Soybean production in the U. S. is forecast at 2.93 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the August forecast but up 13 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 40.0 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 1.2 bushels from 2007.

U. S. all cotton production is forecast at 13.8 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month but down 28 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, up 7 pounds from last month but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month but 27 percent below 2007. U. S. rice production is forecast at 207 million cwt, up 1 percent from the August forecast and up 5 percent from last year. Based on administrative data, planted area is revised to 2.94 million acres, up 2 percent from the June estimate and up 6 percent from 2007. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.92 million acres, up 2 percent from August and up 6 percent from 2007. As of September 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 7,076 pounds per acre, down 40 pounds from the previous month's forecast and 109 pounds below the 2007 record yield of 7,185 pounds per acre. However, if realized, this will be the second highest yield on record. U. S. sorghum production is forecast at 426 million bushels, up 4 percent from last month but down 16 percent from last year. Expected area for harvest as grain is forecast at 6.44 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 5 percent from 2007. Based on September 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 66.1 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from last month but down 8.1 bushels from last year. Production of summer potatoes in the U. S. is forecast at 14.9 million cwt, up 2 percent from the July 1 forecast but down 12 percent from 2007. Harvested acres are estimated at 46,200 acres, 2 percent above the July forecast but 10 percent below last year. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record. Average yield is forecast at 324 cwt per acre, up 3 cwt from July but down 8 cwt from 2007.

Missouri Soybean Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 870 1,000 864 980 43 38 36,954 36,760
NC 684 745 678 660 42 35 28,305 23,210
NE 746 865 742 840 37 34 27,574 28,320
WC 490 585 479 580 34 33 16,260 19,140
C 465 530 457 520 36 39 16,445 20,230
EC 305 365 303 330 32 37 9,641 12,320
SW 140 170 139 167 36 33 4,965 5,510
SC 36 40 34 38 23 36 778 1,360
SE 864 1,000 854 985 32 42 27,428 41,850
STATE 4,600 5,300 4,550 5,100 37 37 168,350 188,700
1/ September 1 Forecast

Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 835.5 645 797.0 595 134 134 107,033 79,840
NC 383.5 295 329.0 260 142 133 46,691 34,700
NE 576.5 460 550.0 430 135 131 74,388 56,160
WC 335.0 305 310.5 290 137 136 42,503 39,485
C 398.0 350 375.0 335 143 154 53,468 51,625
EC 250.0 235 239.0 200 127 138 30,451 27,625
SW 99.0 85 88.3 78 129 127 11,363 9,935
SC 24.0 20 21.2 17 118 120 2,506 2,040
SE 548.5 405 540.0 395 172 172 93,097 67,790
STATE 3,450.0 2,800 3,250.0 2,600 142 142 461,500 369,200
1/ September 1 Forecast