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October 28, 2008

Update Alert

In calculating crop acreage, NASS draws upon several data sources, including farmer reported surveys, satellite imagery, and acreage data reported by producers to the Farm Service Agency (FSA). After the October 10 Crop Production report was released, FSA analysts noted a discrepancy between the acreage numbers in the raw data on the FSA mainframe and the data provided to NASS. Using the definitive source data from the FSA mainframe database, NASS repeated its acreage estimation process for dry edible beans, canola, corn, sorghum, soybeans, and sunflower. As a result, this report was reissued on October 28 to reflect corrected acreage and production estimates.

Corn Yield Declines From Month Earlier, Soybeans Unchanged

COLUMBIA, MO "As Missouri producers begin the corn and soybean harvest, it has become obvious that corn yields are not as high as expected," said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "The soybean outlook continues to be somewhat optimistic as the first frost of the season looms heavy and the late crop continues to mature slowly.”

Based on conditions as of October 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 140 bushels, down 2 bushels per acre from a year ago and the September 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 364 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 21 percent below a year ago and down 1 percent from the September 1 forecast. This remains the fourth largest Missouri corn crop on record. Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 2.60 million acres, down 20 percent from 2007 but unchanged from the September 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, down one-half bushel per acre from the revised 2007 yield but unchanged from the September 1 forecast. Production is forecast at 187 million bushels, 7 percent above the revised 2007 estimate of 175 million bushels but down slightly from September 1. This would be the third largest Missouri soybean crop on record. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.05 million acres, 8 percent above last years revised estimate of 4.67 million acres but slightly below the September 1 forecast.

Based on a record yield of 2.19 tons per acre, all hay production in Missouri is forecast at 9.08 million tons from 4.15 million acres harvested and the second largest hay crop on record behind 2004 when 9.42 million tons were harvested. The previous record hay yield was set in 2004 at 2.17 tons per acre.

Grain sorghum to be harvested in Missouri is forecast at 85,000 acres, 19 percent below last year and the September 1 estimate. A yield of 95 bushels per acre is expected which would result in a production of 8.08 million bushels, 20 percent below 2007 and down 19 percent from the September 1 estimate.

A record yield of 7,100 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 200 pounds per acre above the previous record yield set last year but unchanged from the September 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in a record production of 14.1 million hundredweight, slightly above the previous record production set in 2005. Missouri cotton producers expect to harvest 307,000 acres, 19 percent below last year. A yield of 1,048 pounds per acre is forecast, the second highest yield on record behind 2004 when 1,054 pound per acre were picked. This is an increase of 79 pounds per acre from the September 1 estimate. The resulting 670,000 480-pound bales would be 12 percent below last year but 8 percent above the September 1 estimate.

United States Crops

U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and 8 percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels per acre, up 1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year.

Soybean production in the U.S. is forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast and up 10 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from September 1 and down 2.2 bushels from 2007.

Production of alfalfa dry hay in the U.S. is forecast at 71.4 million tons, up 1 percent from the August forecast but down 2 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.44 tons per acre, up 0.03 ton from August and up 0.09 ton from 2007. Other U.S. hay production is forecast at 79.1 million tons, up 3 percent from the August forecast and up 2 percent from 2007. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.99 tons per acre, up 0.05 ton from the August forecast and up 0.04 ton from last year.

Sorghum production in the U.S. is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 11 percent from September 1 but down 7 percent from last year. Area for harvest as grain is forecast at 7.39 million acres, up 15 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 63.9 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from September and down 10.3 bushels from last year.

U.S. rice production is forecast at 204 million cwt, down 1 percent from the September forecast but up 3 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.92 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 6 percent from 2007. As of October 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 6,982 pounds per acre, down 94 pounds from the September 1 forecast and 203 pounds below the 2007 record yield of 7,185 pounds per acre. All U.S. cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from last month but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month and 28 percent below 2007.


Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/ 2007 20081/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 835.5 645 797.0 595 134 136 107,033 80,900
NC 383.5 295 329.0 260 142 124 46,691 32,355
NE 576.5 460 550.0 430 135 123 74,388 52,990
WC 335.0 305 310.5 290 137 138 42,503 40,020
C 398.0 350 375.0 335 143 153 53,468 51,320
EC 250.0 235 239.0 200 127 141 30,451 28,140
SW 99.0 85 88.3 78 129 118 11,363 9,170
SC 24.0 20 21.2 17 118 115 2,506 1,955
SE 548.5 405 540.0 395 172 170 93,097 67,150
STATE 3,450.0 2,800 3,250.0 2,600 142 140 461,500 364,000
1/ October 1 Forecast