September 11, 2009

Record Soybean Production Forecast

(COLUMBIA, MO) - "Even with temperatures cooler than normal, farmer expectations of yield improved from last month," said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Based on conditions as of September 1, Missouri farmers are on track to produce a record soybean crop and the third largest corn crop.”

Based on conditions as of September 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 151 bushels, 7 bushels above a year ago and 5 bushels per acre above the August 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 453 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 19 percent above a year ago and up 3 percent from the August 1 forecast. This would be the third largest Missouri corn crop on record. Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 3.00 million acres, up 13 percent from 2008 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, 4 bushels above 2008 and 2 bushels above the August 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 224.7 million bushels, 18 percent above 2008 and 5 percent above August 1. This would be the largest Missouri soybean crop on record. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.35 million acres, 6 percent above last year but unchanged from the August 1 forecast.

Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 275,000 acres, down 10 percent from last year and the August 1 estimate. This would be the lowest planted level since 1990. Producers expect to harvest 263,000 acres, 13 percent below last year and 8 percent below the August 1 estimate. A record yield of 1132 pounds per acre is forecasted. The resulting 620,000 480-pound bales would be 11 percent below last year and 2 percent below the August 1 estimate. A yield of 6,800 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 180 pounds per acre above last year, and unchanged from the August 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in a production of 13.5 million hundredweight, 3 percent above last year and the August 1 estimate. Long grain rice planted acres are estimated at 198,000 acres while harvested acres are forecast at 196,000 acres. Medium grain rice planted and harvested acres are expected to be 3,000 acres, 1,000 more acres than was planted and harvested last year. A yield of 86 bushels per acre is expected for Missouri sorghum for grain which would result in a production of 4.73 million bushels, 39 percent below 2008 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 55,000 acres, 31 percent below last year but unchanged from August 1. Missouri summer potato planted acres are estimated at 7,300 acres, up 100 acres from 2008 and 300 acres above the July 1 estimate. Harvested acres are forecast at 7,000 acres, up 500 acres from a year earlier and 300 acres above the July 1 estimate. Production is forecast at 2.03 million cwt., 64 percent above last year but 5 percent below the previous estimate on July 1. Yield is forecast at 290 cwt. per acre, 100 cwt. above last year but 30 cwt. below the July 1 estimate.

United States Crops

U.S. Corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month and 7 percent higher than 2008. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 161.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from August and 8.0 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record and production will be the second largest, behind 2007.

Soybean production in the U.S. is forecast at a record high 3.25 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the August forecast and up 10 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 42.3 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month and up 2.7 bushels from 2008. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record.

U.S. All Cotton production is forecast at 13.4 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month and up 5 percent from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.1 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last year. U.S. Rice production is forecast at 219 million cwt, up 4 percent from the August forecast and up 7 percent from last year. Based on administrative data, planted area is revised to 3.13 million acres, up 4 percent from the June estimate and up 4 percent from 2008. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.10 million acres, up 3 percent from August and up 4 percent from 2008. As of September 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 7,051 pounds per acre, up 12 pounds from the previous month’s forecast and 205 pounds above the 2008 average yield of 6,846 pounds per acre. If realized, this will be the second highest U.S. yield on record. U.S. Sorghum production is forecast at 390 million bushels, up 2 percent from last month but down 18 percent from last year. Expected area for harvest as grain is forecast at 5.95 million acres, unchanged from August but down 18 percent from 2008. Based on September 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 65.5 bushels per acre, up 1.5 bushels from August and up 0.5 bushel from last year. U.S. production of Summer Potatoes is forecast at 14.7 million cwt, up 1 percent from the July forecast and 7 percent above 2008. Harvested area is estimated at 42,500 acres, unchanged from the July forecast but 6 percent below last year. Average yield is forecast at 346 cwt per acre, up 5 cwt from July and up 40 cwt from 2008.