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May 11, 2010

Missouri Wheat Production Third Lowest on Record

(COLUMBIA, MO) - “Higher failed acres and a lack of yield potential have combined to bring winter wheat harvested acres to a record low," said Gene Danekas, Director, Missouri Agricultural Statistics. “Excessive rainfall during the planting season delayed planting and hindered the development of the winter wheat crop. At the beginning of the month the crop was rated 26 percent very poor to poor compared with last year when only 9 percent fell into these categories. Normally, at this time of year, the crop is in 22 percent very poor to poor condition.”

Missouri production of winter wheat is forecast at 14.3 million bushels, based on conditions as of May 1, 2010, 58 percent below the 2009 crop and 74 percent below 2 years ago. This is the third lowest production on record. The lowest production occurred in 1942 when 9.04 million bushels were harvested from 695 thousand acres. Missouri’s largest production occurred in 1981 when 116 million bushels were harvested from 2.75 million acres. Yields in the State are expected to average 46 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from the 2009 yield and 2 bushels per acre below 2008. Harvested acres are forecast at 310,000 acres, the lowest level since records began in 1909. This is down 58 percent from the 2009 acreage level and 73 percent below 2008. The previous record low was set in 2005 when 540 thousand acres were harvested from 590 thousand planted acres.

Missouri Hay Stocks Near 10 Year Average

May 1 hay stocks in Missouri at 1.25 million tons, or 16 percent of the 2009 production, are down 800,000 tons from last year but 350,000 tons above 2008. After last year’s high May hay stocks and a cold winter, hay supplies are near the 10-year average May 1 level of over 1.27 million tons.

United States Winter Wheat Production Down 4 Percent from 2009

Nationally, winter wheat production is forecast at 1.46 billion bushels, down 4 percent from 2009. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 31.8 million acres, down 8 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 45.9 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from the previous year.

Hard Red Winter, at 960 million bushels, is up 5 percent from 2009. Soft Red Winter, at 283 million bushels, is down 30 percent from last year. White Winter is up 7 percent from last year and now totals 215 million bushels. Of this total, 17.0 million bushels are Hard White and 198 million bushels are Soft White.

Missouri Wheat Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 30 22 26.5 18 41.5 47 1,104 840
NC 47 28 42.0 27 42.5 47 1,786 1,270
NE 86 45 79.0 30 45.5 44 3,584 1,320
WC 72 32 69.0 26 44.0 39 3,038 1,020
C 92 41 83.0 26 45.5 49 3,783 1,280
EC 73 27 68.0 18 48.5 46 3,281 820
SW 107 50 102.0 38 46.0 40 4,678 1,520
SC 9 10 6.5 5 42.5 44 277 220
SE 264 135 254.0 122 50.5 49 12,779 5,970
STATE 780 390 730.0 310 47.0 46 34,310 14,260
1/ May 1 Forecast