September 10, 2010

Missouri Corn Yields Decline

(COLUMBIA, MO) - "Hotter than normal August temperatures across Missouri coupled with below normal rainfall has diminished producer’s corn yield expectation since August 1st," said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Despite these conditions Missouri producers are on track to harvest a record rice crop, along with the second largest soybean crop in history.”

Based on conditions as of September 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 143 bushels, 10 bushels below a year ago and 7 bushels per acre below the August 1 forecast. Production is forecast at 458 million bushels, 2 percent above a year ago but down 5 percent from the August 1 forecast. If realized, this would be the third largest Missouri corn crop on record following 2004 and 2007. Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 3.20 million acres, up 10 percent from 2009 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, 1.5 bushels below 2009 and unchanged from the August 1 forecast. Production is forecast at 229 million bushels, 1 percent below 2009 and unchanged from August 1. This would be the second largest Missouri soybean crop on record. Harvested acres are expected to total 5.45 million acres, 3 percent above last year but unchanged from the August 1 forecast.

A record yield of 7,100 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 390 pounds per acre above last year, and 100 pounds per acre above the August 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in a record production of 17.8 million hundredweight, 33 percent above last year and 18 percent above the August 1 estimate. Planted acres of rice are estimated at a record 253,000 acres, 37,000 acres above the previous record in 2005. Rice harvested acres are also a record at 251,000 acres, 37,000 acres above the previous record of 214,000 acres in 2005. Long grain rice planted acres are estimated at 250,000 acres while harvested acres are forecast at 248,000 acres. Medium grain rice planted and harvested acres are expected to be 3,000 acres. Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 315,000 acres, up 16 percent from last year and a 5 percent increase from the August 1 estimate. Producers expect to harvest 313,000 acres, 20 percent above last year and 5 percent above the August 1 estimate. A yield of 966 pounds per acre is forecasted, a decrease of 17 pounds per acre from the August 1 estimate. The resulting 630,000 480-pound bales would be 25 percent above last year and 3 percent above the August 1 estimate. A yield of 95 bushels per acre is expected for Missouri sorghum for grain which would result in a production of 4.28 million bushels, 16 percent above 2009 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 45,000 acres, up 2,000 acres from last year and unchanged from August 1. Missouri summer potato planted acres are estimated at 7,500 acres, up 200 acres from 2009 but 200 acres below the July 1 estimate. Harvested acres are forecast at 7,400 acres, up 300 acres from a year earlier but 200 acres below July. Production is forecast at 2.15 million cwt., 10 percent above last year but 6 percent below the previous estimate on July 1. Yield is forecast at 290 cwt. per acre, up 15 cwt from last year and unchanged from the July 1 forecast.

United States Crops

U.S. Corn production is forecast at a record 13.2 billion bushels, down 2 percent from the August forecast, but up from the previous record of 13.1 billion bushels set in 2009. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 162.5 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels from the previous month and 2.2 bushels below last year’s record of 164.7 bushels.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.48 billion bushels, up 1 percent from August and 4 percent above last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 44.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushel from both last month and last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 78.0 million acres, unchanged from June but up 2 percent from 2009.

U.S. All cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month and up 55 percent from last year’s 12.2 million bales. Yield is expected to average 839 pounds per harvested acre, up 62 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 18.3 million 480-pound bales, 56 percent above 2009. Rice production in the U.S. is forecast at 255 million cwt, up 4 percent from the August forecast and up 16 percent from last year. Based on administrative data, planted area now totals 3.64 million acres, up 4 percent from the June estimate and up 16 percent from 2009. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.62 million acres, up 4 percent from August and up 17 percent from 2009. As of September 1, the average United States yield is forecast at 7,047 pounds per acre, up 8 pounds from the previous forecast but down 38 pounds from last year. U.S. Sorghum production is forecast at 376 million bushels, down 2 percent from both last month and last year. Expected area for harvest as grain is forecast at 5.18 million acres, unchanged from August but down 6 percent from 2009. Based on September 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 72.7 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from August but up 3.3 bushels from last year. U.S. production of summer potatoes is forecast at 11.8 million cwt, down 10 percent from the July forecast and 19 percent below 2009. Harvested area is estimated at 37,100 acres, down 4 percent from the July forecast and 13 percent below last year. Average yield is forecast at 317 cwt per acre, down 22 cwt from July and 23 cwt below 2009.