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October 8, 2010

Corn and Soybean Yields Unchanged From Last Month, Acreages Decline

(COLUMBIA, MO) - "As producers began harvesting this year’s corn crop disappointing yields became evident,” said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Smaller ears, smaller kernels and uneven crops throughout most fields are resulting in less than expected yields.”

Based on conditions as of October 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 134 bushels, down 19 bushels per acre from a year earlier and 9 bushels per acre from the September 1 forecast. Planted and harvested acres are revised downward to 3.20 million acres planted and 3.05 million acres harvested for grain. Production is forecast at 409 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 9 percent below a year ago and 11 percent below the September 1 estimate. This would be the fourth largest Missouri corn crop on record, behind 2004, 2007, and 2009.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 41 bushels per acre, down 2.5 bushels per acre from the 2009 yield and down 1 bushel per acre from the September 1 forecast. Acres are revised downward from last month to 5.20 million acres planted and 5.13 million acres harvested, 3 percent below last years’ estimate of 5.30 million harvested acres. Production is forecast at 210 million bushels, 9 percent below the 2009 estimate and down 8 percent from September 1. This would be the third largest Missouri soybean crop on record, behind 2009 and 2004.

All hay production in Missouri is forecast at 2.06 tons per acre, down slightly from last year’s 2.07 tons per acre. Harvested acres are forecast at 3.95 million acres, up 2 percent from 2009. This would result in a production of 8.15 million tons.

Grain sorghum to be harvested in Missouri is forecast at 35,000 acres, 8,000 acres below last year, and 10,000 acres below the September 1 estimate. A yield of 95 bushels per acre is expected, up 9 bushels from 2009 but unchanged from last month. If realized, this would result in a production of 3.33 million bushels, down 10 percent from 2009 and down 22 percent from the September 1 estimate.

A yield of 6,300 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 410 pounds per acre below last year and 800 pounds per acre below the September 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in record production of 15.8 million hundredweight. The previous record production of 14.1 million hundredweight was set in 2005. Missouri cotton producers expect to harvest 313,000 acres, 20 percent above last year. A yield of 1,043 pounds per acre is forecast, up 116 pounds per acre from last year and 77 pounds per acre above the September 1 estimate. The resulting 680,000 480-pound bales would be 35 percent above last year and up 8 percent from the September 1 estimate.


United States Crops

U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.7 billion bushels, down 4 percent from the September forecast and down 3 percent from last year’s record production of 13.1 billion bushels. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels from the previous month and 8.9 bushels below last year’s record of 164.7 bushels.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.41 billion bushels, down 2 percent from September but 1 percent above last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month but up 0.4 bushel from last year.

U.S all cotton production is forecast at 18.9 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month and up 55 percent from last year’s 12.2 million bales. Yield is expected to average 841 pounds per harvested acre, up 64 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 18.4 million 480-pound bales, up fractionally from last month and 56 percent above 2009. U.S. sorghum production is forecast at 337 million bushels, down 10 percent from the September 1 forecast and 12 percent below last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 72.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from September but up 3.0 bushels from last year. Based on updated administrative information, acreage changes were made in several States. Planted area is estimated at 5.40 million acres, down 10 percent from the previous forecast and down 19 percent from 2009. This is the lowest planted acreage on record. U.S rice production is forecast at 242 million cwt, down 5 percent from the September forecast but up 10 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 3.62 million acres, unchanged from September but up 17 percent from 2009. As of October 1, the average United States yield is forecast at 6,687 pounds per acre, down 360 pounds from the previous forecast and down 398 pounds from last year.


 

Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 761 750 753 710 157 147 118,583 104,580
NC 321 350 315 335 144 109 45,288 36,575
NE 509 565 494 545 149 123 73,810 66,830
WC 313 340 305 325 150 134 45,849 43,550
C 376 395 365 380 151 131 55,123 49,790
EC 205 240 196 230 148 144 29,035 33,185
SW 110 125 105 120 146 133 15,299 15,960
SC 18 20 14 15 135 114 1,893 1,710
SE 387 415 373 390 166 145 61,880 56,520
STATE 3,000 3,200 2,920 3,050 153 134 446,760 408,700
1/ October 1 Forecast
Missouri Soybean Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/ 2009 20101/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 960 990 950 970 45.5 44 43,449 42,790
NC 752 705 741 700 43.5 39 32,145 27,220
NE 849 805 841 795 41.5 43 34,913 34,420
WC 565 585 563 580 44.0 37 24,632 21,500
C 534 540 529 535 44.5 45 23,550 24,100
EC 345 335 341 330 41.5 46 14,190 15,240
SW 173 170 171 165 38.5 33 6,565 5,500
SC 47 45 45 40 31.0 37 1,390 1,460
SE 1,125 1,025 1,119 1,015 44.5 38 49,716 38,100
STATE 5,350 5,200 5,300 5,130 43.5 41 230,550 210,330
1/ October 1 Forecast