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September 12, 2011

Missouri Corn Yields Decline

(COLUMBIA, MO) - "A challenging growing season is beginning to show its final affect on Missouri's crop production," said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. "Corn yields have diminished from earlier expectations as the results of the extreme July growing conditions become more evident.”

Based on conditions as of September 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 120 bushels, 3 bushels below a year ago and 6 bushels per acre below the August 1 forecast. Production is forecast at 372 million bushels, 1 percent above a year ago but down 5 percent from the August 1 forecast. Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 3.10 million acres, up 3 percent from 2010 but unchanged from the August 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 39 bushels per acre, 2.5 bushels below 2010 but unchanged from the August 1 forecast. Production is forecast at 197 million bushels, 6 percent below 2010 but unchanged from August 1. If realized, this would be the fourth largest Missouri soybean crop on record.  Harvested acres are expected to total 5.05 million acres, down slightly from last year but unchanged from the August 1 forecast.

A record yield of 7,200 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 720 pounds per acre above last year, and 400 pounds per acre above the August 1 estimate. If realized, this would result in a production of 9.22 million hundredweight, 43 percent below last year but slightly above the August 1 estimate. Planted acres of rice are estimated at 143,000 acres, 110,000 acres below last year and 2,000 acres below the August estimate. Rice harvested acres are estimated at 128,000 acres, 123,000 acres below a year earlier and 7,000 acres below the August estimate. Long grain rice planted acres are estimated at 137,000 acres while harvested acres are forecast at 122,000 acres. Medium grain rice planted and harvested acres are expected to be 6,000 acres.

Cotton planted acres in Missouri are estimated at 375,000 acres, up 21 percent from last year and a 10 percent increase from the August 1 estimate. Producers expect to harvest 365,000 acres, 19 percent above last year and 9 percent above the August 1 estimate. A yield of 1,092 pounds per acre is forecasted, an increase of 24 pounds from 2010 and 57 pounds per acre above the August 1 estimate. The resulting 830,000 480-pound bales would be 21 percent above last year and 15 percent above the August 1 estimate.

A yield of 80 bushels per acre is expected for Missouri sorghum for grain which would result in a production of 2.80 million bushels, 9 percent above 2010 but 9 percent below the August 1 estimate. Sorghum to be harvested for grain is forecast at 35,000 acres, up 2,000 acres from last year and unchanged from August 1.


United States Crops

U. S. corn production is forecast at 12.5 billion bushels, down 3 percent from the August forecast but up fractionally from 2010. If realized, this will be the third largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bushels per acre, down 4.9 bushels from the August 1 forecast and down 4.7 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield in the United States since 2005.

U. S. soybean production is forecast at 3.09 billion bushels, up 1 percent from August but down 7 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.8 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month but down 1.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 73.8 million acres, unchanged from August but down 4 percent from 2010.

Rice production in the U. S. is forecast at 191 million cwt, up 1 percent from August but down 21 percent from last year. Based on administrative data, planted area is now estimated 2.69 million acres, up 1 percent from the June estimate but down 26 percent from 2010. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.62 million acres, down 1 percent from August and 27 percent lower than 2010. The average United States yield is forecast at 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds from last month and 548 pounds from last year.

Area planted to upland cotton in the U.S. is estimated at 14.4 million acres, up 7 percent from June and up 34 percent from last year. Harvested area is expected to total 9.56 million acres, up 2 percent from last month but down 9 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be a record high abandonment rate. U. S. American Pima planted area is estimated at 289,000 acres, up 42 percent from last year. Expected harvested area, at 287,500 acres, is up 43 percent from the previous year.

U. S. sorghum production is forecast at 244 million bushels, up 1 percent from last month but down 29 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production level since 1956. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 4.39 million acres, unchanged from August 1 but down 9 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage level since 1936. Based on September 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 55.6 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 16.2 bushels from last year.



Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 737.0 820 696.0 770 125.6 129 87,396 99,362
NC 345.5 360 323.0 355 104.3 132 33,702 46,908
NE 559.0 530 531.0 520 106.4 105 56,500 54,603
WC 334.0 370 320.0 355 121.9 97 39,019 34,405
C 391.0 450 376.0 440 128.5 132 48,328 57,970
EC 232.0 210 224.5 205 134.2 100 30,129 20,495
SW 126.5 160 120.9 150 127.2 58 15,376 8,736
SC 21.0 20 17.6 15 102.4 127 1,802 1,901
SE 404.0 330 391.0 290 145.1 164 56,748 47,620
STATE 3,150.0 3,250 3,000.0 3,100 123.0 120 369,000 372,000
1/ September 1 Forecast
Missouri Soybean Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 979 935 957 917 43.1 42.5 41,234 39,200
NC 702 635 682 632 39.9 41.5 27,217 26,100
NE 805 715 795 712 43.2 34.5 34,317 24,700
WC 579 550 574 545 40.2 36.0 23,064 19,600
C 538 585 533 579 45.6 43.0 24,283 24,800
EC 327 310 322 307 46.8 36.0 15,070 11,050
SW 171 255 169 247 34.6 22.5 5,850 5,500
SC 43 45 41 44 30.3 36.5 1,241 1,600
SE 1,006 1,070 997 1,067 38.2 41.5 38,129 44,400
STATE 5,150 5,100 5,070 5,050 41.5 39.0 210,405 196,950
1/ September 1 Forecast