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October 12, 2011

Corn and Soybean Yields Decline From Last Month, Acreages Increase

(COLUMBIA, MO) - "The extreme growing conditions of this season have continued on thru harvest,” said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. “Well below normal rainfall the past two months have provided little to improve this year’s crops.”

Based on conditions as of October 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 115 bushels, down 8 bushels per acre from a year earlier and 5 bushels per acre below the September 1 forecast. Corn acreage is adjusted upward from September, based upon current administrative data, to 3.30 million planted acres and 3.12 million acres harvested for grain. The forecasted planted acres are 5 percent above last year and 2 percent above the September 1 forecast. Harvested acres are 4 percent above last year and up 1 percent from last month’s forecast. Production is expected to be 359 million bushels.  If realized, this production would be 3 percent below a year ago and 4 percent below the September 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 37 bushels per acre as of October 1, down 4.5 bushels per acre from the 2010 yield and down 2 bushels per acre from the September 1 forecast.  Planted acres are forecast at 5.35 million acres, 4 percent above a year ago and 5 percent above the September 1 forecast. Acres for harvest are forecast at 5.25 million acres, up 4 percent from last year and last month’s forecast.  Production is forecast at 194 million bushels, 8 percent below the 2010 estimate and down 1 percent from September 1.

A record yield of 7,200 pounds per acre is forecast for Missouri rice, 720 pounds per acre above last year but unchanged from the September 1 estimate. Acres for harvest are forecast at 128,000, the lowest acreage since 1997.  If realized, this would result in a production of 9.22 million hundredweight, 43 percent below last years’ record production. Missouri cotton producers expect to harvest 365,000 acres, 19 percent above last year.  A record yield of 1,131 pounds per acre is forecast, up 63 pounds per acre from last year and 39 pounds per acre above the September 1 estimate. The resulting 860,000 480-pound bales would be 26 percent above last year and up 4 percent from the September 1 estimate. Grain sorghum to be harvested for grain in Missouri is forecast at 35,000 acres, 2,000 acres above last year but unchanged from the September 1 estimate.  A yield of 80 bushels per acre is expected, up 2 bushels from 2010 but unchanged from last month.  If realized, this would result in a production of 2.80 million bushels, up 9 percent from 2010.

Alfalfa hay production in Missouri is forecast at 2.80 tons per acre, unchanged from last year and last month. Harvested acres are forecast at 220,000 acres, 8 percent below 2010 but unchanged from the September 1 forecast. This would result in a production of 616,000 tons, down 8 percent from 2010. Other hay yield in Missouri is forecast at 1.60 tons per acre, down 16 percent from last year and 6 percent below last month’s forecast. Harvested acres are expected to total 3.60 million acres, the same as a year ago and last month. Production would be 5.76 million tons, down 16 percent below last year and 6 percent below last month.

United States Crops

United States corn production is forecast at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down slightly from the 2010 production estimate. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the United States. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast but down 4.7 bushels from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2005. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, down1 percent from the September forecast.

Soybean production in the United States is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 1 percent from September and down 8 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and down 2 bushels from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, down slightly from September and down 4 percent from 2010.

Rice production in the U. S. is forecast at 187 million cwt, down 2 percent from September and 23 percent below last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.62 million acres, unchanged from September but 27 percent lower than 2010. The average United States yield is forecast at 7,123 pounds per acre, down 150 pounds from last month but up 398 pounds from last year. U. S. all cotton production is forecast at 16.6 million 480-pound bales, up slightly from last month but down 8 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 809 pounds per harvested acre, down 3 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.9 million 480-pound bales, down 10 percent from 2010. Sorghum production in the U. S. is forecast at 244 million bushels, down fractionally from last month and down 29 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production level since 1956. Planted area is estimated at 5.47 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 1 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 4.43 million acres, up 1 percent from September 1 but down 8 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage level since 1936. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 55.0 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from last month and down 16.8 bushels from last year.

Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures hay production in the U. S. is forecast at 64.7 million tons, down fractionally from the August 1 forecast and down 5 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yield is expected to average 3.35 tons per acre, down 0.01 ton from August 1 and 0.05 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 19.3 million acres, unchanged from June but down 3 percent from the previous year's acreage. U. S. other hay production is forecast at 67.0 million tons, down fractionally from the August 1 forecast and down 14 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production level since 1993. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.75 tons per acre, unchanged from the August 1 forecast but down 0.20 ton from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest United States yield since 1988. Harvested area is forecast at 38.3 million acres, unchanged from June but down 4 percent from last year.

Missouri Corn Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 737.0 805 696.0 760 125.6 129 87,396 98,120
NC 345.5 375 323.0 355 104.3 126 33,702 44,650
NE 559.0 565 531.0 535 106.4 99 56,500 52,900
WC 334.0 385 320.0 365 121.9 87 39,019 31,720
C 391.0 445 376.0 420 128.5 126 48,328 52,820
EC 232.0 215 224.5 205 134.2 101 30,129 20,680
SW 126.5 150 120.9 142 127.2 48 15,376 6,850
SC 21.0 20 17.6 18 102.4 107 1,802 1,920
SE 404.0 340 391.0 320 145.1 154 56,748 49,140
STATE 3,150.0 3,300 3,000.0 3,120 123.0 115 369,000 358,800
1/ October 1 Forecast
Missouri Soybean Production and Yield
By District
Area Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production
2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/ 2010 20111/
  -thousands- -thousands- -bu/acre- -thousand bu.-
NW 979 980 957 946 43.1 42.5 41,234 40,090
NC 702 665 682 661 39.9 39.5 27,217 26,070
NE 805 750 795 747 43.2 30.5 34,317 22,770
WC 579 575 574 562 40.2 31.0 23,064 17,540
C 538 615 533 603 45.6 43.0 24,283 25,840
EC 327 325 322 317 46.8 30.5 15,070 9,600
SW 171 270 169 251 34.6 22.5 5,850 5,680
SC 43 50 41 49 30.3 34.5 1,241 1,700
SE 1,006 1,120 997 1,114 38.2 40.5 38,129 44,960
STATE 5,150 5,350 5,070 5,250 41.5 37.0 210,405 194,250
1/ October 1 Forecast