May 1 Crop Production Forecast, Montana, USA

Released: May 12, 2009 Contact information: Christel Pachl or Steve Anderson at 1-800-835-2612.

Based on May 1 conditions, Montana winter wheat producers expect a yield of 39 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year's final yield, according to the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Montana Field Office. Total production is expected to be 93.6 million bushels, down 1 percent from last year's 94.4 million bushels. In the fall of 2008, Montana producers seeded 2.5 million acres of winter wheat, down 100,000 acres from the previous year. Producers expect to harvest 2.4 million acres, 20,000 acres below 2008. As of May 10, Montana's winter wheat crop was rated better than a year ago with 1 percent very poor, 4 percent poor, 27 percent fair, 53 percent good, and 15 percent excellent compared with 10 percent very poor, 19 percent poor, 39 percent fair, 30 percent good, and 2 percent excellent a year ago. More moisture and warmer weather is needed this spring for crop development as 2 percent of the acreage has reached the boot stage compared with 3 percent last year and 6 percent for the five-year average. On May 1, Montana hay producers held an estimated 590,000 tons of hay on hand, 42 percent below stocks on hand a year ago. Hay production for 2008 was 4.08 million tons, 20 percent lower than 2007 production. Disappearance from December 1, 2008 to May 1, 2009 totaled 3.24 million tons, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 34.0 million acres, down 14 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.2 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from the previous year. Hard Red production is down 16 percent from a year ago to 871 million bushels. Soft Red production is down 31 percent and totals 422 million bushels. White production totals 208 million bushels, down 5 percent from a year ago. Of the White production total, 20.8 million bushels are Hard White and 188 million bushels are Soft White. All hay stored on farms May 1, 2009 totaled 22.1 million tons, up 2 percent from a year ago. Disappearance from December 1, 2008-May 1, 2009 totaled 81.6 million tons, compared with 82.5 million tons for the same period a year ago. Hay stocks decreased from last year across most of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain States. Texas and Oklahoma had the largest decreases due in part to lower hay production in 2008. In addition, dry weather last fall and winter resulted in poor pasture conditions which increased supplemental hay feeding. Hay stocks in North Dakota and Montana were down 44 and 42 percent, respectively, due to a combination of lower production and spring snow storms that prolonged the hay feeding season. Meanwhile, in the eastern United States, higher production, milder winter weather, increased precipitation, and lower cattle inventories contributed to higher hay stocks on May 1. The largest increase was shown in Tennessee where stocks were 157 percent higher than a year earlier. Other notable increases were shown in Alabama and Kentucky, both up 150 percent from May 2008. Stocks in the western United States were also higher than a year ago as lower demand was noted in California, Oregon, and Washington. #end#

Top of Page