ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA, National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director David G. Loos, State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Issue 07/2000 Released: 4/4/00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ MARCH PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS As of March 1, Nebraska producers expect to increase acreage planted to soybeans, sorghum, sugar beets oats and barley, while decreasing acreage devoted to corn, dry beans, winter wheat and sunflowers. Total acreage of estimated crops to be planted (including winter wheat but excluding hay), at 15.96 million acres would be down slightly from last year's total of 15.97 million. Corn growers expect to plant 8.3 million acres in 2000, down 3% from last year and 6% below 1998. Soybean producers expect to plant a record 4.6 million acres, up 300,000 acres or 7% over last year. If realized, this will be well above the previous record high 4.3 million acres planted in 1999. Nebraska soybean producers will have increased the amount of acreage devoted to soybeans 84% since 1992, and in seven of the eight years in the 1992-2000 period. Sorghum growers expect to plant 700,000 acres for all purposes, up 150,000 acres from last year but the same number of acres as 1998. Oat planting intentions, at 150,000 acres, are up 11% from last year. Oat acreage forecast to be harvested for grain, at 90,000, is expected to also be up 20% from last year. Dry edible bean producers intend to plant 180,000 acres, down 14% from last year. Sugar beet plantings of 76,800 acres would be 6% more than 1999. Hay acreage for harvest in 2000, at 3.1 million acres, would be down 100,000 acres from last year. Sunflower planting intentions of 100,000 acres were down 1% from 1999 but 43% above 1998. Barley planting intentions were up 2,000 acres from last year, at 7,000 acres. Last fall winter wheat was sown on 1.85 million acres, down 7% from the year earlier. PLANTED ACREAGE AND INTENTIONS COMPARATIVE DATA -- NEBRASKA AND UNITED STATES NEBRASKA UNITED STATES CROP Inten- 2000 Inten- 2000 1998 1999 tions as % of 1998 1999 tions as % of 2000 1999 2000 1999 1,000 acres Percent 1,000 acres Percent Corn 1/ 8,800 8,600 8,300 97 80,165 77,431 77,881 101 Soybeans 3,800 4,300 4,600 107 72,025 73,780 74,871 101 Sorghum 1/ 700 550 700 127 9,626 9,288 8,979 97 Oats 1/ 170 135 150 111 4,898 4,670 4,351 93 Oats for Grain 95 75 90 120 2,755 2,453 2,473 101 Barley 10 5 7 140 6,337 5,223 5,733 110 Dry Beans 195 210 180 86 2,014.1 2,023.0 1,836.7 91 Sugar Beets 53.8 72.7 76.8 106 1,497.8 1,562.7 1,577.5 101 All Hay 2/ 3,200 3,200 3,100 97 60,076 63,160 63,052 100 All Wheat 1,900 2,000 1,850 93 65,821 62,814 61,664 98 Winter Wheat 1,900 2,000 1,850 93 46,449 43,431 43,245 100 Sunflower- Oil 39 49 60 122 2,953 2,757 2,478 90 - Non-oil 31 52 40 77 615 796 569 71 - All 70 101 100 99 3,568 3,553 3,047 86 1/ Grown for all purposes. 2/ Acres for harvest. U.S. INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED The March All Farm Products Index of Prices Received by Farmers in the United States was 96 based on 1990-92=100, up 4 points (4.3%) from February. Price increases for lettuce, cattle, broilers, and broccoli more than offset price decreases for eggs, strawberries, celery, and apples. Compared with March 1999, the U. S. All Farm Products Index was unchanged. AVERAGE PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS NEBRASKA UNITED STATES Marc Feb. March March Feb. March COMMODITY Unit 1999 2000 15, 1999 2000 15, % of Parity 1/ 1/ 2000 1/ 1/ 2000 Parity Price* Wheat Bu. $ 2.57 $ 2.28 $ 2.25 2.65 $ 2.54 $ 2.57 26 $ 9.37 Corn Bu. 1.98 1.90 2.00 2.06 1.98 2.03 30 6.71 Oats Bu. 1.24 1.45 1.45 1.20 1.27 1.28 38 3.40 Grain Sorghum Cwt. 3.15 3.10 3.30 3.16 3.08 3.28 31 10.60 Soybeans Bu. 4.46 4.61 4.78 4.61 4.79 4.87 35 14.00 Hay, All, Baled Ton 42.00 39.00 40.00 79.00 72.60 74.80 --- --- Alfalfa, Baled Ton 43.00 40.00 41.00 83.20 77.40 78.00 --- --- Other, Baled Ton 39.00 34.00 36.00 67.40 66.70 66.70 --- --- Dry Edible Beans Cwt. 16.00 15.30 15.00 17.00 16.00 14.70 30 49.70 Hogs Cwt. 28.80 41.90 43.30 28.00 39.90 41.30 40 103.00 Barrows & Gilts Cwt. 28.90 41.90 43.50 28.30 40.10 41.70 --- --- Sows Cwt. 23.80 34.00 34.00 21.00 36.50 34.50 --- --- Beef Cattle Cwt. 64.40 68.10 71.40 62.40 67.60 69.30 44 156.00 Steers & Heifers Cwt. 65.30 68.90 72.40 65.50 71.20 72.80 --- --- Cows Cwt. 34.10 36.80 37.60 35.20 37.10 38.60 --- --- Calves Cwt. 89.30 102.00 105.00 87.30 105.00 107.00 54 200.00 Sheep Cwt. 28.60 44.50 NA 32.70 39.50 NA --- 68.00 Lambs Cwt. 62.80 72.60 NA 67.40 72.00 NA --- 164.00 All Milk Cwt. 14.30 2/ 2/ 15.00 11.80 11.80 37 31.80 Milk, Fluid Cwt. 14.40 2/ --- 15.10 11.90 11.90 --- --- Milk, Mfg. Cwt. 12.00 2/ --- 12.30 10.20 10.20 --- --- 1/ Entire month average except hay. 2/ Monthly and mid-month prices discontined January 2000. *Parity price based on data for March 2000. NA = Not Available U.S. COLD STORAGE HIGHLIGHTS Frozen food stocks in refrigerated warehouses on February 29, 2000, were greater than year earlier levels for fruit, chicken and beef. Total red meat supplies in freezers were 7 percent above January 2000, but were 4 percent below February 1999. Frozen pork stocks were 9 percent above last month but were 11 percent below last year. Total frozen poultry supplies were up 2 percent from last month and were 4 percent above last year's level. Stocks on February 29 for selected items and changes from last year and last month follow: Percent Change Stocks Commodity Feb. Jan. 1,000 lbs. 1999 2000 Total red meats 825,103 -4% +7% Beef 321,566 +7% +5% Pork 482,192 -11% +9% Poultry 1,146,675 +4% +2% Turkey 348,963 -7% +12% Chicken 794,002 +10% -1% WOOL PRODUCTION AND VALUE SHEEP WEIGHT PRICE STATE and LAMBS PER PRODUCTION PER VALUE SHORN 1/ FLEECE POUND NEBRASKA 1,000 head Pounds 1,000 pounds Dollars 1,000 dollars 1997 85 7.6 644 .52 335 1998 91 7.3 660 .41 271 1999 89 7.6 675 .24 162 UNITED STATES 1997 6,960 7.7 53,578 .84 44,909 1998 6,428 7.7 49,255 .60 29,415 1999 6,150 7.6 46,549 .38 17,852 1/ Includes shearing at commercial feeding yards. HOGS AND PIGS Nebraska pork producers had an estimated 3.05 million hogs and pigs on hand March 1, 2000. This number was down 8% from a year earlier, 12% below two years ago, and the lowest March 1 inventory since 1978. Hogs and pigs kept for breeding were 7% below a year ago and 9% less than two years ago, while market hogs were 8% below last year and 12% below March 1, 1998. Inventory of all hogs and pigs in the United States was estimated at 58.1 million head on March 1, 2000. This was 3% below March 1999 and 2% below the December 1, 1999, inventory. Breeding hog inventory, at 6.22 million head, was down 5% from March 1, 1999, and down slightly from December 1, 1999. Market hogs were 3% below last year, and 2% below last quarter. HOGS AND PIGS: INVENTORY, MARCH 1; SOWS FARROWING AND PIG CROP, 1999-2000 NEBRASKA 17 STATES UNITED STATES % % % Item 1999 2000 Chg. 1999 2000 Chg. 1999 2000 Chg. 1,000 head 1,000 head 1,000 head On Farms-March 1: All hogs and pigs 3,300 3,050 -8 56,195 54,315 -3 60,191 58,147 -3 For breeding 420 390 -7 6,005 5,725 -5 6,527 6,215 -5 Market 2,880 2,660 -8 50,190 48,590 -3 53,663 51,933 -3 Market hogs & pigs by weight groups: Under 60 pounds 1,140 1,060 -7 18,705 18,150 -3 19,978 19,312 -3 60-119 pounds 750 630 -16 12,070 11,680 -3 12,899 12,513 -3 120-179 pounds 550 550 --- 10,280 9,940 -3 10,995 10,648 -3 180 pounds and over 440 420 -5 9,135 8,820 -3 9,792 9,460 -3 Sows Farrowed: Dec 1/-Feb 165 160 -3 2,671 2,606 -2 2,891 2,819 -2 Mar-May 165 *160 -3 2,759 *2,659 -4 2,986 *2,868 -4 Jun-Aug 150 *160 +7 2,700 *2,642 -2 2,920 *2,851 -2 Sep-Nov 160 --- --- 2,655 --- --- 2,869 --- --- TOTAL 640 --- --- 10,785 --- --- 11,666 --- --- Pig Crop: December 1/-February 1,411 1,408 --- 23,365 22,933 -2 25,247 24,777 -2 March-May 1,419 --- --- 24,302 --- --- 26,270 --- --- June-August 1,298 --- --- 23,962 --- --- 25,860 --- --- September-November 1,400 --- --- 23,333 --- --- 25,192 --- --- TOTAL PIG CROP 5,528 --- --- 94,962 --- --- 102,569 --- --- 1/ December preceding year. * Intentions. 17 States: AR, CO, IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, PA, SD, TX, WI. MARCH 1 HOG REPORT HIGHLIGHTS * U.S. inventory down 3% from March 1999. Expectations of private forecasters averaged 96% of the previous year with a range of 94% to 97%. * Market hogs were down 3% from a year earlier. Private forecasters' expectations ranged from 94% to 97% with an average of 96%. * Breeding herd was down 5% from a year earlier. Expectations of private forecasters ranged from 95% to 97% with an average of 96%. * U.S. December-February pig crop was down 2% from a year earlier. Analysts expected the pig crop to be 97% of previous year; estimates ranged from 95% to 98.2%. * March-May intentions are down 4% from actual farrowings a year earlier. June-August intentions are down 2% from the previous year's actual farrowings. If plans are carried out, farrowings would utilize about 92% of March breeding herd. * Commercial hog slaughter during December-February at 25.1 million head was 3% below a year earlier. Live hog imports were 1.02 million head down 3% from a year earlier. Total exports decreased to 25,000 head, compared to 110,000 a year ago. STOCKS OF GRAIN Grain NEBRASKA UNITED STATES and Mar. 1, Mar. 1, Mar. 1, 2000/ Mar. 1, Mar. 1, Mar. 1, 2000/ Position 1998 1999 2000 1999 1998 1999 2000 1999 Thousand bushels Pct. Thousand bushels Pct. Corn On Farms 410,000 520,000 425,000 82 2,975,000 3,570,000 3,300,000 92 Off Farms 1/ 232,251 261,378 266,630 102 1,964,898 2,128,428 2,305,529108 Total 642,251 781,378 691,630 89 4,939,898 5,698,428 5,605,529 98 All Wheat On Farms 9,000 12,000 11,000 92 399,920 471,220 423,180 90 Off Farms 1/ 31,591 42,880 45,485 106 766,644 979,191 989,201 101 Total 40,591 54,880 56,485 103 1,166,564 1,450,411 1,412,381 97 Soybeans On Farms 27,000 44,000 42,000 95 637,000 815,000 730,000 90 Off Farms 1/ 39,272 39,217 49,640 127 565,922 642,338 667,324 104 Total 66,272 83,217 91,640 110 1,202,922 1,457,338 1,397,324 96 Sorghum On Farms 12,000 11,000 9,500 86 56,760 60,900 51,700 85 Off Farms 1/ 19,580 25,836 21,894 85 177,916 161,536 173,368 107 Total 31,580 36,836 31,394 85 234,676 222,436 225,068 101 Oats On Farms 1,600 1,200 1,800 150 58,800 61,700 52,900 86 Off Farms 1/ 2/ 2/ 2/ --- 52,418 50,850 48,523 95 Total 2/ 2/ 2/ --- 111,218 112,550 101,423 90 1/ Includes stocks at mills, elevators, warehouses, terminals, and processors. 2/ Not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. POULTRY HIGHLIGHTS - FEBRUARY 2000 Item 1999 2000 as % of 1998 Millions Percent No. of Layers NEBRASKA 10.8 11.8 109 30 States 304.7 310.1 102 U.S. 322.8 329.9 102 Eggs Produced NEBRASKA 213 227 107 30 States 5,934 6,256 105 U.S. 6,281 6,662 106 Chickens, U.S., Hatched, February Egg-type 35.6 35.5 100 Broiler 661.7 701.0 106 Hatched thru February Egg-type 71.3 69.6 98 Broiler 1,397.1 1,450.3 104 COMMERCIAL LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTER February 2000 output and changes from last year and last month are shown below. February 1999 contained 20 weekdays (including one holiday) and four Saturdays. February 2000 contained 21 weekdays (including one holiday) and four Saturdays. Total 1/ % Change Item (1,000) Feb. Jan. 1999 2000 NEBRASKA Cattle, head 609.7 +7 +3 Hogs, head 495.3 +4 Sm.- Sheep & Lambs, head .1 Same Same Red Meat, mil. lbs. 571.9 +7 +2 UNITED STATES Cattle, head 2,937.1 +8 Sm.+ Calves, head 95.1 -5 +3 Hogs, head 8,067.3 +2 -1 Sheep & Lambs, head 293.0 -2 +4 Red Meat, mil, lbs. 3,767.3 +7 Sm.- 1/ Excludes animals slaughtered on farms.