ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA, National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director David G. Loos, State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Issue 12/2000 Released: 6/21/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2000 WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN 15% FROM LAST YEAR Nebraska's 2000 winter wheat crop (based on June 1 conditions) is forecast at 73.5 million bushels, down 15% from last year. Average yield is forecast at 42 bushels per acre, down 6 bushels from last year's record high yield but still 4.4 bushels above the ten year (1990-1999) average. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.75 million acres, down 3% from last year. This would be 95% of the 1.85 million acres planted. Last year, 90% of the planted acreage was harvested for grain, compared to the ten year average which is 91%. As of June 1, adequate soil moisture was noted in most Panhandle counties, but mostly short soil moisture supplies elsewhere. Disease and insect pressure remained high. Head counts per square foot were above average, while fertile spikelets per head were near normal. Crop development was ahead of average as May came to a close. As of June 4, 36% of the crop was turning color, well ahead of the 3% last year and 1% average. Wheat condition was below a year ago and rated 11% very poor, 19% poor, 33% fair, 33% good and 4% excellent. U.S. WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION DOWN 5% FROM 1999 Winter wheat production in the U.S. is forecast at 1.62 billion bushels, down 2% from the May 1 forecast and 5% below 1999. Yield is forecast at 46.7 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushels from the last forecast. Grain area totals 34.7 million acres, unchanged from May 1. Hard Red Winter wheat production is down 3% from last month to 944 million bushels. White Winter production is up 1% from last month. Soft Red is up 1% from the last forecast to 448 million bushels. JUNE 1, 2000 ESTIMATES AND COMPARATIVE DATA FOR NEBRASKA AND THE UNITED STATES Classification NEBRASKA UNITED STATES 1998 1999 2000 1/ 1998 1999 2000 1/ Winter Wheat: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 95.0 90.0 95.0 86.0 82.0 80.0 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,800 1,800 1,750 40,126 35,572 34,709 Yield Bushels 46.0 48.0 42.0 46.9 47.8 46.7 Production 1,000 Bushels 82,800 86,400 73,500 1,880,733 1,699,989 1,621,966 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. NEBRASKA -- WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS DISTRICTS, 1999-2000 1/ Acres Acres Yield per District Planted Harvested Harv. Acre Production 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 ---------1,000 acres---------- --Bushels- --1,000 bushels-- Northwest 895.0 815.0 756.4 771.0 43.4 42.1 32,836.3 32,468.0 North 15.0 12.0 13.5 11.0 45.4* 39.0 613.5 429.0 Northeast 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.5 47.5* 31.0 114.1 78.0 Central 27.0 30.0 25.7 26.5 52.9 35.0 1,358.4 928.0 East 30.0 30.0 28.8 29.0 47.3* 33.0 1,363.5 957.0 Southwest 635.0 600.0 595.8 580.0 51.8* 45.0 30,839.6 26,100.0 South 215.0 200.0 205.0 180.0 54.3 43.0 11,139.5 7,740.0 Southeast 180.0 160.0 172.4 150.0 47.2* 32.0 8,135.1 4,800.0 NEBRASKA 2,000.0 1,850.0 1,800.0 1,750.0 48.0* 42.0 86,400.0 73,500.0 1/ Preliminary 1999 estimates and 2000 forecasts as of June 1, 2000. * Record high. WINTER WHEAT -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION -- SELECTED STATES 1999 AND FORECASTED JUNE 1, 2000 Area Harvested Yield per Acre Production State 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 May 1 June 1 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Colorado 2,400 2,350 43.0 42.0 40.0 103,200 94,000 Kansas 9,200 9,200 47.0 44.0 42.0 432,400 386,400 Missouri 920 920 48.0 48.0 51.0 44,160 46,920 Montana 970 1,430 38.0 36.0 35.0 36,860 50,050 NEBRASKA 1,800 1,750 48.0 43.0 42.0 86,400 73,500 Oklahoma 4,300 4,100 35.0 38.0 37.0 150,500 151,700 South Dakota 1,260 1,280 47.0 44.0 44.0 59,220 56,320 Texas 3,400 2,200 36.0 32.0 31.0 122,400 68,200 Washington 1,670 1,750 58.0 67.0 69.0 96,860 120,750 United States 35,572 34,709 47.8 47.5 46.7 1,699,989 1,621,966 U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK S U P P L Y MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/* Market CROP Begin- Domestic Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction Stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price CORN: Million bushels $/bu. 1998/99 9,759 1,308 19 11,085 5,472 1,846 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 9,437 1,787 15 11,239 5,675 1,930 1,875 9,480 1,759 1.85-1.95 2000/01 9,740 1,759 10 11,509 5,700 1,975 1,975 9,650 1,859 1.65-2.05 SOYBEANS: 1998/99 2,741 200 3 2,944 1,590 204 801 2,595 348 4.93 1999/00 2,643 348 3 3,258 1,570 169 955 2,694 300 4.65 2000/01 2,955 300 3 3,258 1,610 173 980 2,763 495 4.00-5.00 WHEAT: 1998/99 2,547 722 103 3,373 908 477 1,042 2,427 946 2.65 1999/00 2,302 946 94 3,342 920 415 1,090 2,425 917 2.50 2000/01 2,212 917 100 3,229 935 360 1,125 2,420 809 2.40-2.90 SORGHUM: 1998/99 520 49 --- 569 262 45 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 595 65 --- 660 310 55 250 615 45 1.55-1.65 2000/01 556 45 --- 601 260 55 240 555 46 1.35-1.75 * Projections for 1999 and 2000 crops are USDA's World Outlook Board expectations of supply and disappearance as of June 9, 2000. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. NEBRASKA CATTLE ON FEED UP 5% Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.1 million cattle on feed on June 1. This inventory was up 5% from last year and 17% above two years ago. Placements of cattle into feedlots during May totaled 390,000 head, up 18% from last year and 50% above 1998. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 510,000 head, up 19% from last year and 16% above May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 20,000 head compared with 20,000 head during May 1999 and 20,000 head during May 1998. 7 STATES CATTLE ON FEED UP 10% Cattle on feed June 1, 2000, in the historic 7 monthly States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.41 million, up 10% from the previous year and 13% above June 1, 1998. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.00 million, 15% above both 1999 and 1998. Marketings during May totaled 1.88 million, 10% above 1999 and up 11% from 1998. Other disappearance during May was 85,000 head, 16% above 1999 and 31% above 1998. CATTLE ON FEED -- INVENTORIES, PLACEMENTS, MARKETINGS & OTHER DISAPPEARANCE 1,000+ CAPACITY FEEDLOTS JUNE 1 MAY MAY MAY NUMBER ON FEED PLACEMENTS MARKETINGS OTHER STATE 1/ DISAPPEAR. 2/ 1999 2000 2000 1999 2000 2000 1999 2000 2000 1999 2000 2000 /1999 /1999 /1999 /1999 (000)head % (000)head % (000)head % (000)head % Arizona* 207 276 133 30 37 123 26 32 123 5 5 100 California* 370 410 111 55 65 118 50 52 104 10 8 80 Colorado* 1,090 1,180 108 180 195 108 200 180 90 10 15 150 Idaho 285 305 107 68 60 88 52 58 112 11 12 109 Iowa* 330 350 106 38 40 105 55 58 105 3 2 67 Kansas* 2,020 2,290 113 480 550 115 430 470 109 10 20 200 Nebraska* 2,000 2,100 105 330 390 118 430 510 119 20 20 100 New Mexico 87 90 103 24 18 75 20 16 80 2 2 100 Oklahoma 330 375 114 93 103 111 85 86 101 3 2 67 So. Dakota 164 165 101 23 23 100 35 31 89 4 7 175 Texas* 2,530 2,800 111 620 720 116 505 565 112 15 15 100 Washington 199 216 109 52 44 85 29 46 159 3 0 0 Other Sts 375 375 100 56 59 105 78 67 86 3 7 233 U.S. 9,987 10,932 109 2,049 2,304 112 1,995 2,171 109 99 115 116 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. *Historical 7 States. MILK COWS AND PRODUCTION: BY MONTH, 20 SELECTED STATES , 1999-2000 Milk Cows 1/ Milk per Cow 2/ Milk Production 2/ Month 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 2000/1999 Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 105 February 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 108 March 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 104 April 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 103 May 7,733 7,796 1,610 1,638 12,447 12,771 103 June 7,740 1,516 11,737 July 7,751 1,498 11,610 August 7,755 1,487 11,534 September 7,753 1,445 11,200 October 7,746 1,491 11,549 November 7,756 1,459 11,315 December 7,757 1,538 11,928 Annual 7,735 18,103 140,029 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. CROP PROGRESS & CONDITION, SELECTED STATES, AS OF JUNE 18, 2000 SOYBEANS: PERCENT EMERGED WINTER WHEAT: PERCENT HARVESTED Week Ending Week Ending June June June June June June State 18, 11, 18, 1995-99 State 18, 11, 18, 1995-99 2000 2000 1999 Avg. 2000 2000 1999 Avg. Percent Percent AR 70 55 67 66 AR 82 54 68 56 IL 98 93 92 NA CA 40 30 27 35 IN 97 91 97 NA CO 0 0 0 0 IA 100 99 94 87 ID 0 0 0 0 KS 92 88 65 NA IL 12 1 8 5 KY 76 65 73 41 IN 10 1 9 4 LA 96 91 89 87 KS 45 9 1 7 MI 73 59 96 80 MI 0 0 0 0 MN 99 97 92 91 MO 40 22 18 13 MS 96 89 93 86 MT 0 0 0 0 MO 94 83 76 NA NE 4 0 0 0 NE 100 98 87 82 NC 50 28 50 42 NC 60 50 57 NA OH 0 0 1 0 ND 99 95 82 91 OK 80 61 44 45 OH 86 81 100 73 OR 0 0 0 0 SD 97 90 78 NA SD 0 0 0 0 TN 63 45 73 NA TX 61 41 40 48 WI 96 86 91 NA WA 0 0 0 0 18 18 STS. 93 87 87 NA STS. 35 18 14 16 These 18 States planted 95% of the These 18 States harvested 91% of the 1999 soybean acreage. 1999 winter wheat acreage. NA= Not Available. SOYBEANS: CROP CONDITION CORN: CROP CONDITION State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent AR 2 5 25 54 14 CO 1 3 29 51 16 IL 1 3 20 56 20 IL 1 2 13 57 27 IN 1 6 27 52 14 IN 0 3 14 57 26 IA 1 5 27 52 15 IA 1 5 21 51 22 KS 0 4 28 63 5 KS 1 6 33 52 8 KY 0 2 19 58 21 KY 1 2 24 49 24 LA 0 3 25 67 5 MI 3 7 27 57 6 MI 2 5 34 55 4 MN 1 4 25 56 14 MN 2 4 26 56 12 MO 1 5 32 51 11 MS 1 6 26 53 14 NE 7 13 27 41 12 MO 1 7 33 50 9 NC 1 6 27 59 7 NE 7 19 31 35 8 ND 0 3 13 74 10 NC 1 6 22 64 7 OH 1 3 19 54 23 ND 2 5 17 62 14 PA 0 2 13 61 24 OH 2 10 28 49 11 SD 0 1 13 63 23 SD 0 2 16 65 17 TN 1 4 14 50 31 TN 0 1 14 56 29 TX 0 3 19 52 26 WI 2 6 20 52 20 WI 2 6 22 48 22 18 STS. 1 6 25 54 14 18 STS. 2 5 21 52 20 Prev. Wk. 1 6 28 53 12 Prev. Wk. 2 6 23 53 16 Prev. Yr. 1 4 26 55 14 Prev. Yr. 1 4 20 55 20