ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA, National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director David G. Loos, State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Issue 14/2000 Released: 7/24/2000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nebraska's 2000 winter wheat crop is forecast at 66.5 million bushels, down 10% from last month. This production is 23% below last year's crop and down 20% from 1998. The July 1 yield forecast, at 38 bushels per acre, is down 10 bushels from the record high 48 bushel yield of 1999 and down 4 bushels from last month. The smaller yield forecast is the result of dry conditions during June in the Panhandle and Southwestern counties during the last stages of development. June precipitation averaged between 20-40% of normal during June for the western growing regions. Crop development at the end of June was well ahead of normal, with near 50% of the acreage harvested. Acreage to be harvested for grain, forecast at 1.75 million acres, is unchanged from last month but 3% below 1999. Harvested acreage is expected to be 95% of the 1.85 million acres planted. Last year, 90% of the planted acreage was harvested for grain. By July 1, 1.73% of the crop was considered ripe, two weeks ahead of the 16% average. Harvest was winding down in portions of the South, with combining active in lower Panhandle counties. Wheat crop condition rated 14% very poor, 30% poor, 41% fair and 15% good. OAT PRODUCTION DOWN Oat production is forecast at 3.15 million bushels, down 32% from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 70,000 acres, is down 7% from last year. Yield is forecast at 45 bushels per acre, down 17 bushels from last year and the lowest yield since 1993. JULY 1, 2000 ESTIMATES AND COMPARATIVE DATA FOR NEBRASKA AND THE UNITED STATES NEBRASKA UNITED STATES Classification 1998 1999 2000 1/ 1998 1999 2000 1/ Winter Wheat: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 95.0 90.0 95.0 86.0 82.0 82.0 For harvest (1,000 Acres) 1,800 1,800 1,750 40,126 35,572 35,401 Yield Bushels 46.0 48.0 38.0 46.9 47.8 44.9 Production (1,000 Bushels) 82,800 86,400 66,500 1,880,733 1,699,989 1,588,376 Oats: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 56.0 56.0 54.0 56.0 53.0 55.0 For harvest (1,000 Acres) 95 75 70 2,755 2,453 2,472 Yield Bushels 56.0 62.0 45.0 60.2 59.6 61.2 Production (1,000 Bushels) 5,320 4,650 3,150 165,981 146,218 151,380 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. NEBRASKA -- WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS DISTRICTS, 1999-2000 1/ Acres Acres Yield per District Planted Harvested Harv. Acre Production 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Northwest 895.0 815.0 756.4 771.0 43.4 38.9 32,836.3 30,010.0 North 15.0 12.0 13.5 11.0 45.4* 34.0 613.5 374.0 Northeast 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.5 47.5* 30.0 114.1 75.0 Central 27.0 30.0 25.7 26.5 52.9 31.0 1,358.4 822.0 East 30.0 30.0 28.8 29.0 47.3* 31.0 1,363.5 899.0 Southwest 635.0 600.0 595.8 580.0 51.8* 39.0 30,839.6 22,620.0 South 215.0 200.0 205.0 180.0 54.3 40.0 11,139.5 7,200.0 Southeast 180.0 160.0 172.4 150.0 47.2* 30.0 8,135.1 4,500.0 NEBRASKA 2,000.0 1,850.0 1,800.0 1,750.048.0* 38.0 86,400.0 66,500.0 1/ Preliminary estimates 1999 and forecast as of July 1, 2000. WINTER WHEAT -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION -- SELECTED STATES Area Harvested Yield per Acre Production State 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 June 1 July 1 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Colorado 2,400 2,350 43.0 40.0 30.0 103,200 70,500 Kansas 9,200 9,300 47.0 42.0 39.0 432,400 362,700 Missouri 920 1,000 48.0 51.0 52.0 44,160 52,000 Montana 970 1,350 38.0 35.0 35.0 36,860 47,250 NEBRASKA 1,800 1,750 48.0 42.0 38.0 86,400 66,500 Oklahoma 4,300 4,300 35.0 37.0 34.0 150,500 146,200 South Dakota 1,260 1,280 47.0 44.0 44.0 59,220 56,320 Texas 3,400 2,500 36.0 31.0 29.0 122,400 72,500 Washington 1,670 1,800 58.0 69.0 69.0 96,860 124,200 United States 35,572 35,401 47.8 46.7 44.9 1,699,989 1,588,376 U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK S U P P L Y MARKET YEAR Market DISAPPEARANCE 1/* Year Average CROP Pro- ning Im- Domestic Ex- Ending Market YEAR duction Stocks ports Total Primary Other ports Total Stocks* Price Use 2/ CORN: Million bushels $/bu. 1998/99 9,759 1,308 19 11,085 5,471 1,846 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 9,437 1,787 15 11,239 5,625 1,920 1,875 9,420 1,819 1.80 2000/01 10,013 1,819 10 11,842 5,650 1,960 2,050 9,660 2,182 1.50-1.90 SOYBEANS: 1998/99 2,741 200 3 2,944 1,590 204 801 2,595 348 4.93 1999/00 2,643 348 3 2,994 1,570 170 965 2,705 290 4.65 2000/01 2,940 290 3 3,233 1,610 173 970 2,752 480 3.90-4.90 WHEAT: 1998/99 2,547 722 103 3,373 908 477 1,042 2,427 946 2.65 1999/00 2,302 946 94 3,342 920 382 1,090 2,392 950 2.50 2000/01 2,243 950 100 3,293 935 311 1,100 2,346 947 2.25-2.75 SORGHUM: 1998/99 520 49 --- 569 262 45 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 595 65 --- 660 290 55 250 595 65 1.55 2000/01 564 65 --- 629 260 55 240 555 74 1.25-1.65 * Projections for 1999 and 2000 crops are USDA's World Outlook Board expectations of supply and disappearance as of July 12, 2000. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. CATTLE ON FEED: INVENTORIES, PLACEMENTS, MARKETINGS & OTHER DISAPPEARANCE, 1,000+ CAPACITY FEEDLOTS 1/ JUNE JULY 1 JUNE JUNE OTHER NUMBER ON FEED PLACEMENTS MARKETINGS DISAPPEARANCE 1/ 2000 2000 2000 2/ 2000 1999 2000 1999 1999 2000 1999 1999 2000 1999 1999 2000 1999 STATE 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 head % Arizona* 198 274 138 20 34 170 26 35 135 3 1 33 California* 375 410 109 60 58 97 50 53 106 5 5 100 Colorado* 1,020 1,090 107 160 150 94 225 230 102 5 10 200 Idaho 275 290 105 61 60 98 62 65 105 9 10 111 Iowa* 310 345 111 45 46 102 64 55 86 1 1 100 Kansas* 1,960 2,160 110 410 360 88 460 485 105 10 5 50 Nebraska* 1,790 1,950 109 300 315 105 500 460 92 10 5 50 New Mexico 82 89 109 16 15 94 19 16 84 2 0 0 Oklahoma 325 355 109 73 62 85 76 78 103 2 4 200 So. Dakota 140 144 103 15 18 120 36 37 103 3 2 67 Texas* 2,530 2,730 108 520 450 87 510 510 100 10 10 100 Washington 215 202 94 65 48 74 48 61 127 1 1 100 Other Sts 345 350 101 49 48 98 77 70 91 2 3 150 U.S. 9,565 10,389 109 1,794 1,664 93 2,153 2,155 100 63 57 90 7 States 8,183 8,959 109 1,515 1,413 93 1,835 1,828 100 44 37 84 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcuss that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. * Historical 7 States. CATTLE AND CALVES: NUMBER BY CLASS AND CALF CROP, UNITED STATES, JULY 1, 1998-2000 CLASS 1998 1999 2000 2000/1999 ------Thousand head------ Percent Cattle and Calves 107,700 107,000 106,400 99 Cows and Heifers that have Calved 43,600 43,300 43,200 100 Beef Cows 34,400 34,150 33,950 99 Milk Cows 9,200 9,150 9,250 101 Heifers 500 Pounds and Over 16,700 16,600 16,500 99 For Beef Cow Replacement 5,000 4,800 4,700 98 For Milk Cow Replacement 3,600 3,700 3,700 100 Other Heifers 8,100 8,100 8,100 100 Steers 500 Pounds and Over 14,600 14,400 14,300 99 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over 2,200 2,200 2,100 95 Calves Under 500 Pounds 30,600 30,500 30,300 99 Calf Crop 1/ 38,812 38,710 38,900 100 1/ For the current year, the calf crop is the number of calves born before July 1 plus the number expected to be born on and after July 1. LAMB CROP AND MARKET SHEEP AND LAMBS INVENTORY, BY REGION AND U.S., JULY 1, 2000 1/ Lambs Lambs Market Lambs Born Expected 65 85 Market All Through After Total Breeding Under to to Over Sheep Sheep REGION June 30 June 30 Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and /2 3/ 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs --------------------------------1,000 head-------------------------------------- 1 600 215 815 796 155 170 140 55 520 10 530 1,430 2 735 145 880 980 425 130 30 25 610 20 630 1,800 3 1,450 20 1,470 1,394 975 170 90 110 1,345 20 1,365 2,965 4 665 60 725 519 265 145 100 65 575 10 585 1,300 5 570 70 640 539 190 95 40 25 350 10 360 1,005 U.S. 4,020 510 4,530 4,228 2,010 710 400 280 3,400 70 3,470 8,500 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2000. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2000. MILK COWS AND MILK PRODUCTION October-December January-March April-June Item & Quarter 1998 1999 1999 2000 1999 2000 Milk cows 1/ Thousand head Nebraska 70 75 72 75 73 75 20 States 7,695 7,753 7,701 7,768 7,731 7,796 United States 9,128 9,170 9,128 9,187 9,155 9,213 Milk production 2/ Million pounds Nebraska 266 296 277 309 285 315 20 States 33,422 34,792 34,741 36,626 36,182 37,212 United States 38,901 40,406 40,505 42,593 42,029 43,137 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. MILK COWS AND PRODUCTION: BY MONTH, 20 SELECTED STATES, 1999-2000 Milk Cows 1/ Milk per Cow 2/ Milk Production 2/ 2000 as % Month 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 of 1999 Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 105 February 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 108 March 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 104 April 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 103 May 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 102 June 7,740 7,805 1,516 1,546 11,737 12,070 103 July 7,751 1,498 11,610 August 7,755 1,487 11,534 September 7,753 1,445 11,200 October 7,746 1,491 11,549 November 7,756 1,459 11,315 December 7,757 1,538 11,928 Annual 7,735 18,103 140,029 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.