ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director David G. Loos, State Statistician ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue 20/2000 Released: 10/18/2000 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NEBRASKA OCTOBER 1 CROP REPORT Corn Production Forecast Lower Nebraska's corn production, based on October 1 conditions, is forecast at 1.02 billion bushels, down 1% from September 1. Production, if realized, would be 11% below last year and 18% below the 1.24 billion bushel record high set in 1998. Acreage harvested for grain, at 8.05 million acres, is unchanged from last month, but down 3% from last year. Yield is now forecast at 127 bushels per acre, 1 bushel below last month, 12 bushels below last year and the lowest since the 111 bushel yield of 1995. Lower than expected irrigated yields were noted especially in south central counties. Although ears per acre set a new record high in 2000, average grain weight per ear is the third lowest since 1985. Irrigated corn production is forecast at 741.8 million bushels, 3% below the previous year. Yield, at 156.2 bushels per acre, was down nearly 2 bushels from last month's forecast, but still the fourth highest of record (1998=161.3 bu/ac). Acreage for grain, at 4.75 million, remained unchanged from the September estimate and 1% below 1999. Dryland corn production is forecast at 280.1 million bushels, down 29% from last year. Yield, at 85 bushels per acre, is 26 bushels below last year and 34 bushels below the record high set in 1998. Acreage for harvest as grain, at 3.30 million, is unchanged from the September forecast, but down 6% from a year ago. Sorghum Grain Production Unchanged From Last Month Sorghum grain production is forecast at 32.9 million bushels, unchanged from last month, but 23% less than last year's crop. Yield is forecast at 70 bushels per acre, unchanged from the September forecast, but down 21 bushels from last year. Acreage for grain harvest remains unchanged at 470,000 acres. Soybean Production Forecast Down 4% From Last Month Soybean production is forecast at 170.2 million bushels, down 4% from September 1 forecast, but still the second highest of record (1999=180.6 million bushels). Acreage for harvest, at 4.6 million acres, was lowered 50,000 from the September 1 forecast to reflect increased abandoned acres due to the drought this year. Yield, at 37 bushels per acre, is the lowest since 1995, down 1 bushel from the September 1 forecast, and down 5.5 bushels from last year. Other Crops Sugar beet production of 1.2 million tons is up 2% from last month but down 4% from last year. Dry edible bean production of 3.2 million cwt, is up 5% from the August forecast, but 14% less than 1999 production. Sunflower production is forecast at 95.8 million pounds, 17% less than last year's total. All hay production is forecast at 6.1 million tons, up 5% from the August forecast, but still 20% less than last year. NEBRASKA -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY DISTRICT, 1999-2000 CORN FOR GRAIN 1/ Dist Acres Planted Acres Yield per Production Harvested Harv. Acre 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 350.0 385.0 321.0 350.0 126.0 119.0 40,455.8 41,650.0 N 370.0 350.0 342.0 320.0 141.2 133.0 48,292.8 42,560.0 NE 1,540.0 1,535.0 1,473.5 1,465.0 130.0 119.0 191,560.4 174,335.0 C 1,150.0 1,120.0 1,106.0 1,070.0 148.4 129.0 164,157.7 138,030.0 E 2,085.0 2,025.0 2,039.0 1,965.0 140.8 128.2 287,106.1 251,905.0 SW 960.0 980.0 925.5 935.0 140.7 136.0 130,237.6 127,160.0 S 985.0 885.0 965.0 860.0 147.9 138.0 142,716.6 118,680.0 SW 1,160.0 1,120.0 1,128.0 1,085.0 132.2 118.0 149,173.0 128,030.0 NE 8,600.0 8,400.0 8,300.0 8,050.0 139.0 127.0 1,153,700.0 1,022,350.0 SOYBEANS FOR BEANS 1/ Dist Acres Planted Acres Yield per Production Harvested Harv. Acre 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 2.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 32.5 30.0 32.5 120.0 N 150.0 165.0 148.0 161.0 48.6 41.0 7,200.0 6,601.0 NE 1,175.0 1,210.0 1,160.0 1,195.0 39.3 35.0 45,600.0 41,825.0 C 234.0 285.0 232.0 270.0 47.3 39.0 10,980.0 10,530.0 E 1,403.0 1,500.0 1,390.0 1,470.0 43.9 37.9 61,057.5 55,689.0 SW 58.0 85.0 55.0 80.0 48.3 43.0 2,655.0 3,440.0 S 292.0 405.0 298.0 395.0 51.9 46.0 15,000.0 18,170.0 SE 986.0 1,045.0 975.0 1,025.0 39.1 33.0 38,100.0 33,825.0 NE 4,300.0 4,700.0 4,250.0 4,600.0 42.5 37.0 180,625.0 170,200.0 SORGHUM FOR GRAIN 1/ Dist Acres Planted Acres Yield per Production Harvested Harv. Acre 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 11.0 9.0 2.4 2.0 55.0 40.0 132.0 80.0 N 6.3 8.0 1.7 3.0 73.5 65.0 125.0 195.0 NE 9.7 12.0 1.5 2.0 68.3 70.0 102.5 140.0 C 16.5 20.0 4.9 6.0 72.7 60.0 356.0 360.0 E 62.5 63.0 58.3 60.0 93.5 85.0 5,453.9 5,100.0 SW 48.0 30.0 30.2 17.0 84.6 50.0 2,553.6 850.0 S 79.0 85.0 68.0 75.0 98.4 68.0 6,689.0 5,100.0 SE 317.0 323.0 303.0 305.0 90.3 69.1 27,358.0 21,075.0 NE 550.0 550.0 470.0 470.0 91.0 70.0 42,770.0 32,900.0 WHEAT 2/ Dist Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield per Production Harv. Acre 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1999 2000 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels NW 850.0 783.0 716.0 755.0 43.4 35.8 31,081.027,011.0 N 14.0 13.0 12.5 11.0 45.4 40.0 568.0 440.0 NE 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 47.6 28.0 119.0 56.0 C 25.0 23.0 23.5 19.0 52.9 36.0 1,242.0 684.0 E 28.0 23.0 26.5 22.0 47.3 35.0 1,254.0 770.0 SW 605.0 560.0 565.0 543.0 51.8 35.0 29,245.0 19,005.0 S 205.0 190.0 194.0 160.0 54.3 43.0 10,541.0 6,880.0 SE 170.0 155.0 160.0 138.0 47.2 33.0 7,550.0 4,554.0 NE 1,900.0 1,750.0 1,700.0 1,650.0 48.0 36.0 81,600.0 59,400.0 1/ Preliminary estimates 1999 and forecast as of October 1, 2000. 2/ Revised 1999 and preliminary 2000. NOTE: Planted acres are for all purposes. CORN & SOYBEAN YIELD & PRODUCTION, SELECTED STATES, 1999 & FORECASTED OCTOBER 1, 2000 --------------CORN------------------ -----------SOYBEANS------------- Yield per Acre Production Yield per Acre Production ST 1999 Sep 1 Oct 1 1999 2000 1999 Sep 1 Oct 1 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 Bushels 1,000 bushels Bushels 1,000 bushels Il 140.0 158.0 155.0 1,491,000 1,712,750 42.0 47.0 46.0 443,100 471,500 In 132.0 155.0 151.0 748,440 838,050 39.0 46.0 46.0 216,450 260,360 Ia 149.0 155.0 148.0 1,758,200 1,776,000 44.5 47.0 44.0 478,375 464,200 Ks 141.0 133.0 128.0 420,180 416,000 29.0 24.0 22.0 81,200 59,400 Mn 150.0 156.0 152.0 990,000 1,003,200 42.0 42.0 41.0 289,800 291,100 Mo 97.0 139.0 144.0 247,350 410,400 27.5 38.0 37.0 147,125 188,700 NE 139.0 128.0 127.0 1,153,700 1,022,350 42.5 38.0 37.0 180,625 170,200 Oh 126.0 145.0 152.0 403,200 501,600 36.0 43.0 43.0 162,000 188,770 SD 113.0 108.0 108.0 367,250 426,600 36.0 35.0 35.0 146,520 148,750 US 133.8 141.8 139.6 9,437,337 10,191,817 36.6 39.5 38.7 2,653,758 2,822,821 OCTOBER 1, 2000 ESTIMATES AND COMPARATIVE DATA FOR NEBRASKA AND THE UNITED STATES Classification NEBRASKA UNITED STATES 1998 1999 2000 1/ 1998 1999 2000 1/ Corn for Grain: For hrv (000 Ac) 8,550 8,300 8,050 72,589 70,537 73,009 Yield (Bu) *145.0 139.0 127.0 134.4 133.8 139.6 Prod(000 Bu) *1,239,750 1,153,700 1,022,350 9,758,685 9,437,337 10,191,817 Corn for Grain, Irrigated: For hrv (000 Ac) 5,250 4,800 4,750 --- --- --- Yield (Bu) *161.3 159.4 156.2 --- --- --- Prod (000 Bu) 847,050 765,200 741,850 --- --- --- Corn for Grain, Not Irrigated: For hrv (000 Ac) 3,300 3,500 3,300 --- --- --- Yield (Bu) *119.0 111.0 85.0 --- --- --- Prod (000 Bu) *392,700 388,500 280,500 --- --- --- Soybeans for Beans: For hrv (000 Ac) 3,750 4,250 *4,600 70,441 72,446 73,024 Yield (Bu) 44.0 42.5 37.0 38.9 36.6 38.7 Prod (000 Bu) 165,000 *180,625 170,200 2,741,01 42,653,758 2,822,821 Sorghum for Grain: For hrv (000 Ac) 600 470 470 7,723 8,544 7,665 Yield (Bu) 94.0 91.0 70.0 67.3 69.7 60.7 Prod (000 Bu) 56,400 42,770 32,900 519,933 595,166 465,348 Alfalfa Hay: For hrv (000 Ac) 1,400 1,400 1,350 23,642 23,985 23,317 Yield (Tons) *3.75 3.70 3.10 3.48 3.50 3.43 Prod (000) Tons 5,250 5,180 4,185 82,310 83,924 79,971 All Other Hay: For hrv (000 Ac) 1,800 1,800 1,750 37,404 39,175 38,274 Yield (Tons) **1.35 **1.35 1.10 1.91 1.92 1.90 Prod (000) Tons 2,430 2,430 1,925 69,470 75,153 72,680 All Hay: For hrv (000) Ac 3,200 3,200 3,100 60,076 63,160 62,191 Yield (Tons) *2.40 2.38 1.87 2.53 2.52 2.46 Prod (000) Tons 7,680 7,610 5,800 151,780 159,077 153,255 Beans, Dry Edible: For hrv (000) Ac 188.0 187.0 160.0 1,917.7 1,877.0 1,579.4 Yield (lbs) 1,950 2,000 2,000 1,586 1,770 1,621 Prod (000) Cwt. 3,666 3,740 3,200 30,418 33,230 25,603 Sugar Beets: For hrv (000) Ac 47.4 66.2 58.7 1,450.7 1,527.3 1,402.4 Yield (Tons) 19.7 19.0 20.5 22.4 21.9 23.0 Prod (000) Tons 934 1,258 1,203 32,499 33,420 32,269 Sunflowers: For hrv (000) Ac 68 97 93 3,492 3,441 2,775 Yield (lbs) 1,191 1,195 1,030 1,510 1,262 1,338 Prod (000) lbs 81,020 115,950 95,790 5,273,16 24,341,862 3,712,457 1/ Forecast. *Record. **Equals record. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK --------SUPPLY------------ MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE1/* Market CROP Begin- Domestic Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Total Ending market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Stocks* Price Million bushels $/bu. CORN: 1998/99 9,759 1,308 19 11,085 5,471 1,846 1,981 9,298 1,787 1.94 1999/00 9,437 1,787 15 11,239 5,676 1,913 1,935 9,524 1,715 1.80 2000/01 10,192 1,715 10 11,917 5,850 1,975 2,275 10,100 1,817 1.65-2.05 SOYBEANS: 1998/99 2,741 200 3 2,944 1,590 201 805 2,595 348 4.93 1999/00 2,654 348 4 3,006 1,579 170 970 2,719 288 4.65 2000/01 2,823 288 3 3,114 1,615 169 965 2,749 365 4.60-5.20 WHEAT: 1998/99 2,547 722 103 3,373 910 475 1,042 2,427 946 2.65 1999/00 2,299 946 95 3,339 925 376 1,090 2,390 950 2.48 2000/01 2,239 950 100 3,289 940 336 1,125 2,401 888 2.35-2.75 SORGHUM: 1998/99 520 49 0 569 262 45 197 504 65 1.66 1999/00 595 65 0 660 290 55 250 595 65 1.55 2000/01 465 65 0 531 230 50 200 480 51 1.45-1.85 * Projections for 1999 and 2000 crops are USDA's World Outlook Board expectations of supply and disappearance as of October 12, 2000. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. LEADING STATES FOR CASH RECEIPTS, 1999 1/ Item Top 10 States by their Value of Cash Receipts (Million Dollars) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 All Calif. Texas Iowa Nebr. Kans. Fla. Minn. Ill. N.Car. Wisc. Commodities24,801 13,052 9,716 8,555 7,616 7,066 7,061 6,757 6,688 5,596 Livestock &Texas Calif. Nebr. Kans. Iowa Wisc. N.Car. Minn. Ark. Ga. products 8,480 6,714 5,425 5,009 4,712 4,149 3,850 3,548 3,397 3,334 Crops Calif. Fla. Ill. Iowa Texas Minn. Wash. Nebr. N.Car. Ind. 18,087 5,715 5,233 5,004 4,572 3,513 3,275 3,130 2,838 2,792 Cattle & Texas Nebr. Kans. Colo. Okla. Iowa S.Dak. Calif.Mo. Mont. Calves 6,124 4,583 4,521 2,320 2,128 1,640 1,281 1,223 869 806 Dairy Calif. Wisc. N.Y. Pa. Minn. Texas Idaho Wash. Mich. N.Mex. products 4,090 3,160 1,737 1,706 1,311 839 834 820 801 657 Hogs Iowa N.Car. Minn. Ill. Nebr. Ind. Mo. Okla. Ohio Kans. 2,205 1,160 827 647 527 519 452 303 279 222 Corn Iowa Ill. Nebr. Ind. Minn. Ohio Kans. S.D. Wisc. Mo. 2,704 2,550 1,796 1,333 1,195 768 667 544 523 452 Soybeans Ill. Iowa Minn. Ind. Ohio Nebr. Mo. S.D. Ark. Mich. 2,113 2,097 1,201 1,025 824 742 718 583 431 342 Wheat Kans. N.Dak. Mont. Wash. Okla. S.Dak. Texas Ind. Colo. Minn. 981 728 465 382 346 296 272 264 234 216 Hay Calif. Ind. Texas Colo. Oreg. Wash. N.Mex. Kans. Pa. Mo. 403 213 199 176 170 168 155 146 119 114 Sorghum Kans. Texas Nebr. Mo. Okla. La. Ark. Colo. Ill. S.Dak. Grain 349 271 71 32 26 24 16 14 12 10 Sugar Minn. Idaho N.Dak. Calif.Mich. Mont. Colo. Wyo. Nebr. Oreg. beets 332 204 182 133 130 54 52 47 44 21 1/ Preliminary data from Economic Research Service, USDA, September 2000.