ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Nebraska Department of Agriculture USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Merlyn Carlson, Director William G. Hamlin, State Statistician ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue 11/2001 Released: 06/27/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agri- businesses who provided data making these reports possible. State Statistician 2001 WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST UP 3% FROM LAST YEAR Nebraska's 2001 winter wheat crop (based on June 1 conditions) is fore- cast at 61.2 million bushels, unchanged from last month but up 3% from last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 36 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and last year but 1.4 bushels below the ten year average. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.7 million acres, up 3% from last year. This would be 94% of the planted acres, the same as last year but up from the ten year average of 92%. As of June 1, topsoil and subsoil moisture supplies were rated mostly adequate. The crop was about one week behind normal as fields began turning color. Disease and insect pressure to date was light. Head counts per square foot were below average and the lowest since 1996, while fertile spikelets per head were greater than normal. As of June 3, 58% of the crop had headed, well behind the 96% last year and 71% average. WINTER WHEAT: AREA HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION NEBRASKA, AND UNITED STATES, 1999-2001 NEBRASKA UNITED STATES Classification 1999 2000 2001 1/ 1999 2000 2001 1/ Winter Wheat: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 89.0 94.0 94.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,700 1,650 1,700 35,486 35,022 32,088 Yield Bushels 48.0 36.0 36.0 47.8 44.6 41.2 Production 1,000 Bushels 81,600 59,400 61,200 1,696,580 1,562,733 1,321,126 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. NEBRASKA -- WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS DISTRICTS, 2000-2001 1/ Acres Acres Yield per District Planted Harvested Harv. Ac. Production 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Northwest 780.0 807.0 739.9 759.0 36.2 31.5 26,805.123,917.0 North 14.0 12.0 13.3 11.5 41.1 33.0 546.0 380.0 Northeast 2.0 3.0 1.7 2.5 34.9 35.0 59.4 88.0 Central 26.0 25.0 24.7 23.5 38.4 41.0 948.9 964.0 East 25.0 23.0 24.4 21.5 33.4 36.0 814.5 774.0 Southwest 550.0 570.0 518.8 547.0 34.4 41.0 17,850.522,427.0 South 193.0 200.0 177.6 185.0 42.5 40.0 7,539.8 7,400.0 Southeast 160.0 160.0 149.6 150.0 32.3 35.0 4,835.8 5,250.0 NEBRASKA 1,750.0 1,800.0 1,650.0 1,700.0 36.0 36.0 59,400.061,200.0 1/ Preliminary 2000 estimates and 2001 forecasts as of June 1, 2001. WINTER WHEAT -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION -- SELECTED STATES, AND UNITED STATES 2000-2001 1/ Area Harvested Yield per Acre Production State 2001 2000 2001 2000 2000 2001 May 1 June 1 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Colorado 2,350 2,050 29.0 34.0 34.0 68,150 69,700 Kansas 9,400 8,400 37.0 34.0 34.0 347,800 285,600 Missouri 950 780 52.0 50.0 50.0 49,400 39,000 Montana 1,350 1,090 33.0 34.0 29.0 44,550 31,610 NEBRASKA 1,650 1,700 36.0 36.0 36.0 59,400 61,200 Oklahoma 4,200 3,600 34.0 27.0 27.0 142,800 97,200 South Dakota 1,280 550 42.0 33.0 33.0 53,760 18,150 Texas 2,200 2,900 30.0 30.0 32.0 66,000 92,800 Washington 1,800 1,750 73.0 63.0 63.0 131,400 110,250 United States 35,022 32,088 44.6 41.8 41.2 1,562,733 1,321,126 1/ Preliminary 2000 and 2001 forecast. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK 1/ SUPPLY MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 2/ Market CROP Begin- Domestic Year Avg. YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- TotalEnding Market duction stocks ports Use 3/ Other ports Stocks Price CORN: Million bushels $/bu. 99/00 9,431 1,787 15 11,232 5,664 1,913 1,937 9,5151,718 1.82 00/01 9,968 1,718 7 11,693 5,825 1,970 1,850 9,6452,048 1.80-1.90 01/02 9,575 2,048 10 11,633 5,700 2,040 2,000 9,7401,893 1.70-2.10 SOYBEANS: 99/00 2,654 348 4 3,006 1,579 164 973 2,716 290 4.63 00/01 2,770 290 3 3,063 1,615 183 995 2,793 270 4.45 01/02 2,985 270 3 3,258 1,645 178 995 2,818 440 3.90-4.70 WHEAT: 99/00 2,299 946 95 3,339 925 376 1,090 2,390 950 2.48 00/01 2,223 950 90 3,263 960 384 1,065 2,409 854 2.63 01/02 1,941 854 95 2,890 970 335 1,000 2,305 585 2.75-3.35 SORGHUM: 99/00 595 65 0 660 284 55 256 595 65 1.57 00/01 470 65 0 535 225 35 230 490 45 1.75-1.85 01/02 575 45 0 620 285 60 230 575 45 1.55-1.95 1/ Projections for 2000 and 2001 crops are USDA's World Outlook Board expectations of supply and disappearance as of June 12, 2001. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 3/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. NEBRASKA CATTLE ON FEED DOWN SLIGHTLY Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 2.09 million cattle on feed on June 1. This inventory was down slightly from last year but 5% above two years ago. This is the first month that inventory has been down since January 1999. Placements during May totaled 375,000 head, down 4% from last year but 14% above 1999. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 520,000 head, up 2% from last year and 21% above May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 15,000 head compared with 20,000 head during May 2000 and 20,000 head during May 1999. 7 STATES CATTLE ON FEED UP 10% Cattle on feed June 1, 2001, in the historic 7 monthly States for feed- lots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 9.66 million, up 2% from the previous year and 13% above June 1, 1999. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.06 million, 3% above 2000 and 19% above 1999. Marketings during May totaled 1.88 million, 1% above 2000 and up 11% from 1999. Other disappearance during May was 88,000 head, 4% above 2000 and 21% above 1999. CATTLE ON FEED,INVENTORIES, PLACEMENTS, MARKETINGS & OTHER DISAPPEARANCE 1,000+ CAPACITY FEEDLOTS JUNE 1 MAY MAY May Other NUMBER ON FEED 1/ PLACEMENTS MARKETINGS DISAPPEAR. 2/ 2001/ 2001/ 2001/ 2001/ State 2000 2001 2000 2000 2001 2000 2000 2001 2000 2000 2001 2000 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 % head Az* 276 305 111 37 41 111 32 34 106 5 10 200 Ca* 410 450 110 65 77 118 52 50 96 8 12 150 Co* 1,210 1,160 96 195 190 97 180 190 106 15 10 67 Id 305 320 105 60 57 95 58 64 110 12 3 25 Ia* 355 365 103 41 37 90 54 51 94 2 1 50 Ks* 2,290 2,400 105 550 530 96 470 485 103 20 25 125 Ne* 2,100 2,090 100 390 375 96 510 520 102 20 15 75 N.M. 90 81 90 18 21 117 16 22 138 2 1 50 Ok 375 370 99 103 110 107 86 83 97 2 2 100 S.D. 165 200 121 23 25 109 31 37 119 7 3 43 Tx* 2,800 2,890 103 720 810 113 565 545 96 15 15 100 Wa 216 244 113 44 44 100 46 53 115 0 1 Oth.Sts 375 365 97 59 50 85 67 62 93 7 3 43 U.S. 10,967 11,240 102 2,3052,367 103 2,167 2,196 101 115 101 88 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. *Historical 7 States. MILK COWS AND PRODUCTION: BY MONTH, 20 SELECTED STATES , 2000-2001 Milk Cows 1/ Milk per Cow 2/ Milk Production 2/ Month 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2001 as % of 2000 Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 98 February 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 95 March 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 98 April 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 98 May 7,799 7,744 1,636 1,629 12,758 12,614 99 June 7,808 1,547 12,082 July 7,821 1,561 12,205 August 7,820 1,525 11,928 September 7,820 1,464 11,451 October 7,817 1,511 11,813 November 7,805 1,459 11,385 December 7,803 1,519 11,855 Annual 7,799 18,532 144,528 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. CROP CONDITION, SELECTED STATES, AS OF JUNE 25, 2001 CORN: CROP CONDITION SOYBEAN: CROP CONDITION State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent CO 0 2 14 61 23 AR 1 4 32 54 9 IL 1 3 18 57 21 IL 1 6 30 52 11 IN 1 4 19 58 18 IN 1 6 28 57 8 IA 3 8 28 50 11 IA 3 10 31 47 9 KS 0 3 14 66 17 KS 1 5 27 55 12 KY 0 3 15 57 25 KY 2 4 14 62 18 MI 1 5 23 55 16 LA 2 6 21 56 15 MN 3 9 42 41 5 MI 2 5 23 59 11 MO 2 11 34 41 12 MN 4 11 40 40 5 NE 0 4 22 60 14 MS 0 3 23 54 20 NC 0 2 14 54 30 MO 5 16 43 32 4 ND 0 5 18 66 11 NE 0 5 25 60 10 OH 1 5 23 56 15 NC 0 2 22 70 6 PA 2 8 27 51 12 ND 0 6 17 62 15 SD 1 4 22 57 16 OH 3 9 30 48 10 TN 0 2 13 57 28 SD 3 5 21 54 17 TX 3 6 32 55 4 TN 0 2 18 64 16 WI 2 5 35 35 23 WI 3 8 32 38 19 18 Sts. 1 5 25 54 15 18 Sts. 2 8 30 50 10 Prev Wk 2 7 28 50 13 Prev Wk 2 8 32 49 9 Prev Yr 1 5 21 52 21 Prev Yr 2 6 26 52 14 WINTER WHEAT: CROP CONDITION State VP P F G EX Percent AR 3 10 36 45 6 CA 0 0 5 60 35 CO 2 8 30 44 16 ID 2 5 20 65 8 IL 2 6 27 51 14 IN 2 5 23 56 14 KS 9 19 41 25 6 MI 1 3 17 61 18 MO 5 9 32 45 9 MT 40 30 20 9 1 NE 5 16 40 35 4 NC 6 19 46 27 2 OH 1 7 20 56 16 OK 11 15 38 30 6 OR 7 22 36 32 3 SD 14 27 35 19 5 TX 2 10 39 44 5 WA 2 6 38 54 0 18 Sts. 7 14 36 36 7 Prev Wk 8 14 35 37 6 Prev Yr 7 17 31 37 8 SORGHUM: CROP CONDITION State VP P F G EX Percent AR 1 1 27 57 14 CO 0 1 11 77 11 IL 2 3 44 48 3 KS 0 3 25 65 7 LA 0 1 16 63 20 MO 1 5 45 42 7 NE 1 3 35 56 5 NM 0 34 42 24 0 OK 0 1 23 63 13 SD 0 2 40 46 12 TX 9 17 41 28 5 11 Sts. 3 8 32 50 7 Prev Wk NA NA NA NA NA Prev Yr 2 6 32 50 10 NA = Not Available.