ne-agri-facts Issued Twice Monthly by: NEBRASKA Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 273 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Nebraska Department of Agriculture William G. Hamlin, State Statistician Merlyn Carlson, Director ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Issue 14/2001 Released: 07/24/2001 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Subscriber: Information herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. Thanks for your cooperation. State Statistician 2001 WHEAT AND OAT PRODUCTION FORECAST Nebraska's 2001 winter wheat crop is forecast at 66.3 million bushels, up 8% from last month and 12% above last year's crop. Average yield is forecast at 39 bushels per acre, up 3 bushels from last month and last year and 1.6 bushels above the ten year average. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.7 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 3% from last year. As of July 1, topsoil and subsoil moisture supplies were rated adequate to short across the major wheat growing areas of the State. With the later maturing crop, harvest began about one week behind normal. Disease, insect pressure, and weather damage have been light to date. Counts from randomly selected fields from our Wheat Objective Yield survey indicated that head counts per square foot were below average, and the lowest since 1996, while grains per head were greater than normal. Oat production is forecast at 3.32 million bushels, up 75% from last year's drought reduced crop. Acreage for harvest, at 65,000 acres, is up 20,000 acres from 2000. Yield is forecast at 51 bushels per acre, up 9 bushels from last year. WINTER WHEAT AND OATS: AREA HARVESTED, YIELD, AND PRODUCTION NEBRASKA, AND UNITED STATES 1999-2001 NEBRASKA UNITED STATES Classification 1999 2000 2001 1/ 1999 2000 2001 1/ Winter Wheat: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 89.0 94.0 94.0 82.0 81.0 77.0 For harvest 1,000 Acres 1,700 1,650 1,700 35,486 35,022 31,657 Yield Bushels 48.0 36.0 39.0 47.8 44.6 43.2 Production 1,000 Bushels 81,600 59,400 66,300 1,696,580 1,562,733 1,366,192 Oats: Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 56.0 35.0 45.0 52.0 52.0 50.0 For harvest 1,000 Acres 75 45 65 2,453 2,324 2,186 Yield Bushels 62.0 42.0 51.0 59.6 64.2 60.5 Production 1,000 Bushels 4,650 1,890 3,315 146,193 149,195 132,150 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. WINTER WHEAT -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION BY AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS DISTRICTS, NEBRASKA, 2000-20011/ Acres Acres Yield per District Planted Harvested Harv. Acre Production 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Northwest 780.0 807.0 739.9 759.0 36.2 34.7 26,805.1 26,304.0 North 14.0 12.0 13.3 11.5 41.1 36.0 546.0 414.0 Northeast 2.0 3.0 1.7 2.5 34.9 38.0 59.4 95.0 Central 26.0 25.0 24.7 23.5 38.4 42.0 948.9 987.0 East 25.0 23.0 24.4 21.5 33.4 39.0 814.5 839.0 Southwest 550.0 570.0 518.8 547.0 34.4 43.0 17,850.5 23,521.0 South 193.0 200.0 177.6 185.0 42.5 44.0 7,539.8 8,140.0 Southeast 160.0 160.0 149.6 150.0 32.3 40.0 4,835.8 6,000.0 NEBRASKA 1,750.0 1,800.0 1,650.0 1,700.0 36.0 39.0 59,400.0 66,300.0 1/ Preliminary estimates 2000 and forecast as of July 1, 2001. WINTER WHEAT -- ACREAGE, YIELD AND PRODUCTION -- SELECTED STATES Area Harvested Yield per Acre Production State 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 June 1 July 1 1,000 acres Bushels 1,000 bushels Colorado 2,350 2,050 29.0 34.0 35.0 68,150 71,750 Kansas 9,400 8,400 37.0 34.0 39.0 347,800 327,600 Missouri 950 760 52.0 50.0 54.0 49,400 41,040 Montana 1,350 950 33.0 29.0 24.0 44,550 22,800 NEBRASKA 1,650 1,700 36.0 36.0 39.0 59,400 66,300 Oklahoma 4,200 3,800 34.0 27.0 32.0 142,800 121,600 South Dakota 1,280 370 42.0 33.0 34.0 53,760 12,580 Texas 2,200 3,000 30.0 32.0 34.0 66,000 102,000 Washington 1,800 1,750 73.0 63.0 61.0 131,400 106,750 United States 35,022 31,657 44.6 41.2 43.2 1,562,733 1,366,192 U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK SUPPLY MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE Market Average Market Begin- Domestic Year Average Crop Pro- ning Im- Prim. Ex- Ending Market Year uction Stks ports Total Use Other ports Total Stocks Price CORN: M i l l i o n b u s h e l s $/bu 1999/00 9,431 1,787 15 11,232 5,664 1,913 1,937 9,515 1,718 1.82 2000/01 9,968 1,718 7 11,693 5,850 1,965 1,825 9,640 2,053 1.80-1.90 2001/02 9,495 2,053 15 11,563 5,725 2,035 1,975 9,735 1,828 1.75-2.15 SOYBEANS: 1999/00 2,654 348 4 3,006 1,579 164 973 2,716 290 4.63 2000/01 2,770 290 3 3,063 1,625 188 995 2,808 255 4.50 2001/02 2,935 255 4 3,194 1,660 174 1,015 2,849 345 4.00-5.00 WHEAT: 1999/00 2,299 946 95 3,339 925 376 1,090 2,390 950 2.48 2000/01 2,223 950 90 3,263 960 365 1,065 2,390 873 2.62 2001/02 1,974 873 95 2,942 970 312 1,050 2,332 610 2.70-3.30 SORGHUM: 1999/00 595 65 0 660 284 55 256 595 65 1.57 2000/01 470 65 0 535 235 35 230 500 35 1.75-1.85 2001/02 615 35 0 650 275 60 250 585 65 1.60-2.00 Source: USDA World Outlook Board estimates as of July 11, 2001. CATTLE ON FEED: INVENTORIES, PLACEMENTS, MARKETINGS & OTHER DISAPPEARANCE, 1,000+ CAPACITY FEEDLOTS 1/ JUNE JULY 1 JUNE JUNE OTHER NUMBER ON FEED 1/ PLACEMENTS MARKETINGS DISAPPEARANCE STATE 2/ 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001 1999 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 head % 1,000 head % AZ* 274 291 106 34 32 94 35 33 94 1 13 1300 CZ* 410 470 115 58 77 133 53 51 96 5 6 120 CO* 1,100 1,110 101 150 160 107 250 205 82 10 5 50 ID 290 320 110 60 69 115 65 68 105 10 1 10 IA* 345 345 100 46 36 78 55 55 100 1 1 100 KS* 2,160 2,350 109 360 445 124 485 485 100 5 10 200 NE* 1,950 1,900 97 315 320 102 460 500 109 5 10 200 NM 89 100 112 15 32 213 16 12 75 0 1 OK 355 390 110 62 78 126 78 60 77 4 3 75 SD 144 175 122 18 21 117 37 41 111 2 5 250 TX* 2,730 3,000 110 450 620 138 510 495 97 10 15 150 WA 202 227 112 48 42 88 61 58 95 1 1 100 Other 350 335 96 48 35 73 70 59 84 3 6 200 U.S. 10,399 11,013 106 1,664 1,967 118 2,175 2,122 98 57 77 135 7 St 8,969 9,466 106 1,413 1,690 120 1,848 1,824 99 37 60 162 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcuss that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. * Historical 7 States. CATTLE AND CALVES: NUMBER BY CLASS AND CALF CROP, UNITED STATES, JULY 1, 1999-2001 CLASS 1999 2000 2001 2001 as % of 2000 T h o u s a n d h e a d Percent Cattle and Calves 107,000 106,300 105,800 100 Cows and Heifers that have Calved 43,300 43,200 43,000 100 Beef Cows 34,150 33,950 33,850 100 Milk Cows 9,150 9,250 9,150 99 Heifers 500 Pounds and Over 16,600 16,500 16,400 99 For Beef Cow Replacement 4,800 4,700 4,600 98 For Milk Cow Replacement 3,700 3,700 3,600 97 Other Heifers 8,100 8,100 8,200 101 Steers 500 Pounds and Over 14,400 14,300 14,600 102 Bulls 500 Pounds and Over 2,200 2,100 2,100 100 Calves Under 500 Pounds 30,500 30,200 29,700 98 Calf Crop 1/ 38,796 38,621 38,400 99 1/ For the current year, the calf crop is the number of calves born before July 1 plus the number expected to be born on and after July 1. LAMB CROP AND MARKET SHEEP AND LAMBS INVENTORY, BY REGION AND U.S.JULY 1,2001 1/ Market Lambs Lambs Lambs Breed- Mkt All Reg- Born Exptd Total ing Und 65- 85- Over Sheep Sheep ion thru After Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Tot- Mkt and and 2/ 6/30 6/30 Crop Jan. 1 lbs lbs lbs lbs al Sheep Lambs Lambs 3/ 4/ 1 , 0 0 0 h e a d 1 595 215 810 793 155 170 140 55 520 10 530 1,430 2 675 125 800 845 420 135 30 25 610 20 630 1,780 3 1,400 20 1,420 1,335 935 175 90 115 1,315 20 1,335 2,885 4 690 60 750 538 265 140 100 60 565 10 575 1,275 5 575 60 635 550 175 80 40 25 320 10 330 930 US 3,935 480 4,415 4,061 1,950 700 400 280 3,330 70 3,400 8,300 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS,MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2001. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2001. MILK COWS AND MILK PRODUCTION October-December January-March April-June Item & Quarter 1999 2000 2000 2001 2000 2001 Milk cows 1/ T h o u s a n d h e a d Nebraska 75 79 75 77 75 74 20 States 7,753 7,808 7,769 7,769 7,799 7,745 United States 9,171 9,211 9,188 9,157 9,213 9,124 Milk production 2/ M i l l i o n p o u n d s Nebraska 296 316 309 295 315 294 20 States 34,823 35,053 36,640 35,575 37,251 36,819 United States 40,440 40,678 42,630 41,306 43,189 42,627 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. MILK COWS AND PRODUCTION: BY MONTH, 20 SELECTED STATES, 2000-2001 Milk Cows 1/ Milk per Cow 2/ Milk Production 2/ Month 2001 as % 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 of 2000 Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 98 February 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 95 March 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 98 April 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 98 May 7,799 7,745 1,636 1,632 12,758 12,638 99 June 7,808 7,747 1,547 1,552 12,082 12,023 100 July 7,821 1,561 12,205 August 7,820 1,525 11,928 September 7,820 1,464 11,451 October 7,817 1,511 11,813 November 7,805 1,459 11,385 December 7,803 1,519 11,855 Annual 7,799 18,532 144,528 1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. ------------------------------------------------------------------------