ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 14/2002 Released: 07/23/2002 by Nebraska Agricultural Statistics Service P.O. Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Nebraska Department of Agriculture William G. Hamlin, State Statistician Merlyn Carlson, Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. State Statistician For the PDF version of this report, go to the following address: http://www.agr.state.ne.us/agstats/agrifact/agf0214.pdf ------------------------------------------------------------------------ July 2002 Wheat and Oat Production Forecast Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2002 winter wheat crop is forecast at 43.5 million bushels, down 27 percent from last year's crop, 6 percent below last month's forecast, and lowest since 1944. Average yield is forecast at 30 bushels per acre, down 7 bushels from last year's yield, 1 bushel above last month, and lowest since the 30 bushel yield recorded in 1992. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.45 million acres, 150,000 acres less than last year and the lowest since 975,000 acres were harvested in 1917. As of June 30, topsoil and subsoil moisture supplies were rated very short to short in the major wheat growing areas. Wheat harvest had a strong start the last week of June and was 27 percent complete by June 30. Oat production is forecast at 3.6 million bushels, down 2 percent from last year. Acreage for harvest, at 80,000 acres, is up 20,000 acres from 2001. Yield is forecast at 45 bushels per acre, down 16 bushels from the previous year. Winter Wheat and Oats: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2000-2002 Crop Nebraska United States 2000 2001 2002 1/ 2000 2001 2002 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ (Percent) 94.3 91.4 87.9 80.8 76.2 72.0 For harvest (1,000 Acres) 1,650 1,600 1,450 35,072 31,295 29,764 Yield (Bushels) 36.0 37.0 30.0 44.7 43.5 39.6 Production (1,000 Bushels) 59,400 59,200 43,500 1,566,023 1,361,479 1,178,320 Oats Harvested for Grain 2/ (Percent) 34.6 38.7 45.7 52.0 43.3 51.8 For harvest (1,000 Acres) 45 60 80 2,329 1,905 2,633 Yield (Bushels) 42.0 61.0 45.0 64.2 61.3 56.1 Production (1,000 Bushels) 1,890 3,660 3,600 149,545 116,856 147,584 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 11, 2002. Winter Wheat: Acreage, Yield, and Production by Nebraska Agricultural Districts 2001-2002 1/ Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield Production State 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Northwest 750.0 730.0 677.8 620.0 32.2 22.5 21,815.2 13,921.0 North 13.0 16.0 9.1 14.0 39.8 32.0 362.2 448.0 Northeast 2.0 2.0 1.2 2.0 40.4 32.0 48.5 64.0 Central 23.0 20.0 17.5 18.0 42.0 35.0 734.8 630.0 East 22.0 22.0 18.3 21.0 42.3 37.0 775.0 777.0 Southwest 575.0 515.0 539.8 450.0 39.2 30.0 21,141.7 13,500.0 South 200.0 190.0 184.8 180.0 44.5 40.0 8,232.6 7,200.0 Southeast 165.0 155.0 151.5 145.0 40.2 48.0 6,090.0 6,960.0 Nebraska 1,750.0 1,650.0 1,600.0 1,450.0 37.0 30.0 59,200.0 43,500.0 1/ Current year forecast as of July 1, 2002. Source: USDA NASS Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2001-2002 State Acres Harvested Yield Production 2001 2002 1/ 2001 2002 1/ 2001 2002 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 2,000 1,650 33.0 23.0 66,000 37,950 Kansas 8,200 8,000 40.0 34.0 328,000 272,000 Missouri 760 760 54.0 44.0 41,040 34,440 Montana 870 800 22.0 33.0 19,140 26,400 Nebraska 1,600 1,450 37.0 30.0 59,200 43,500 Oklahoma 3,700 3,500 33.0 30.0 122,100 105,000 South Dakota 370 800 32.0 24.0 11,840 19,200 Texas 3,200 2,800 34.0 30.0 108,800 84,000 Washington 1,750 1,750 61.0 65.0 106,750 113,750 United States 31,295 29,764 43.5 39.6 1,361,479 1,178,320 1/ Forecasted July 1, 2002. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 11, 2002. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK ---------SUPPLY--------- MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/ Market CROP Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2000/01 9,915 1,718 7 11,639 5,848 1,957 1,935 9,740 1,899 1.85 2001/02 3/ 9,507 1,899 10 11,416 5,825 2,045 1,925 9,795 1,621 1.91 2002/03 3/ 9,790 1,621 15 11,426 5,750 2,160 2,050 9,960 1,466 1.80-2.20 Soybeans 2000/01 2,758 290 4 3,052 1,641 164 1,000 2,804 248 4.54 2001/02 3/ 2,891 248 3 3,141 1,705 181 1,045 2,931 210 4.30 2002/03 3/ 2,860 210 4 3,074 1,715 173 955 2,844 230 4.15-5.05 Wheat 2000/01 2,232 950 90 3,272 956 379 1,061 2,396 876 2.62 2001/02 3/ 1,958 876 105 2,939 940 266 960 2,167 772 2.78 2002/03 3/ 1,749 772 105 2,626 950 256 900 2,106 520 2.75-3.35 Sorghum 2000/01 471 65 0 536 220 35 239 494 42 1.89 2001/02 3/ 515 42 0 556 215 45 250 510 46 1.85 2002/03 3/ 546 46 0 592 235 50 250 535 57 1.65-2.05 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June/1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 11, 2002. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2001-2002 July 1 June June June Other STATE Number on Feed 1/ Placements Marketings Disappearance 2/ 2002/ 2002/ 2002/ 2002/ 2001 2002 2001 2001 2002 2001 2001 2002 2001 2001 2002 2001 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % Arizona 291 291 100 32 24 75 33 31 94 13 1 8 California 470 485 103 77 67 87 51 62 122 6 5 83 Colorado 1,110 1,030 93 160 155 97 205 210 102 5 5 100 Idaho 320 300 94 69 49 71 68 58 85 1 1 100 Iowa 345 350 101 36 36 100 55 60 109 1 1 100 Kansas 2,350 2,160 92 445 380 85 485 480 99 10 10 100 Nebraska 1,900 1,890 99 320 295 92 500 460 92 10 5 50 New Mexico 98 101 103 30 23 77 12 16 133 1 2 200 Oklahoma 390 325 83 78 53 68 60 67 112 3 1 33 So. Dakota 175 175 100 21 18 86 41 47 115 5 1 20 Texas 3,000 2,850 95 620 465 75 495 470 95 15 15 100 Washington 227 180 79 42 28 67 58 47 81 1 1 100 Other States 335 350 104 35 51 146 59 68 115 6 3 50 United States 11,011 10,487 95 1,9651,644 84 2,122 2,076 98 77 51 66 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, July 19, 2002. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, Nebraska and United States, July 1, 2000-2002 Nebraska United States Class 2000 2001 2002 2002/2001 2000 2001 2002 2002/2001 1,000 head Percent 1,000 head Percent Cattle and calves 7,250 7,250 7,050 97 106,300 105,800 105,200 99 Cows and heifers that have calved 2,100 2,100 2,030 97 43,200 43,000 42,900 100 Beef cows 2,025 2,029 1,963 97 33,950 33,900 33,750 100 Milk cows 75 71 67 94 9,250 9,100 9,150 101 Heifers 500 pounds and over 1/ 16,500 16,400 16,200 99 For beef cow replacement 1/ 4,700 4,600 4,600 100 For milk cow replacement 1/ 3,700 3,600 3,700 103 Other heifers 1/ 8,100 8,200 7,900 96 Steers 500 pounds and over 1/ 14,300 14,600 14,500 99 Bulls 500 pounds and over 1/ 2,100 2,100 2,100 100 Calves under 500 pounds 1/ 30,200 29,700 29,500 99 Calf Crop 2/ 1,840 1,820 1,760 97 38,631 38,280 38,400 100 1/ State totals not published. 2/ 2002 calf crop preliminary. Source: USDA NASS Cattle, July 19, 2002. Lamb Crop and Market Sheep and Lambs: Inventory by Region and United States, July 1, 2002 1/ Lambs Lambs -------Market Lambs-------- Market All Regions Born Expected Total Breeding Under 65to 85to Over Sheep Sheep Through After Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and June 30 3/ June 30 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------1,000 Head--------------------------------------------- Region 1 580 210 790 790 155 170 140 55 520 10 530 1,430 Region 2 660 120 780 870 415 130 30 15 590 20 610 1,740 Region 3 1,380 20 1,400 1,262 910 170 90 110 1,280 20 1,300 2,800 Region 4 655 55 710 515 260 140 90 50 540 10 550 1,220 Region 5 565 65 630 543 185 80 35 20 320 10 330 910 United States 3,840 470 4,310 3,980 1,925 690 385 250 3,250 70 3,320 8,100 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or branded in the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 -IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2002. 4/ Lambs expected to be born July through December 2002. Source: USDA NASS Sheep, July 19, 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, Nebraska, 20 States and United States, 2000-2002 Item and Nebraska 20 States United States Quarter 2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002 2000 2001 2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 Head Milk Cows 1/ January-March 75 75 68 7,768 7,764 7,744 9,186 9,143 9,109 April-June 75 73 67 7,797 7,747 7,766 9,212 9,114 9,147 Million Pounds Milk Production 2/ January-March 309 306 283 36,626 35,551 36,408 42,622 41,267 42,256 April-June 315 302 284 37,225 36,855 37,864 43,185 42,681 43,950 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 17, 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2001-2002 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ Month 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 2002/2001 Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 102 February 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 102 March 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 103 April 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 103 May 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 103 June 7,751 7,780 1,555 1,579 12,052 12,288 102 July 7,746 1,552 12,025 August 7,735 1,520 11,754 September 7,730 1,472 11,376 October 7,726 1,522 11,756 November 7,739 1,485 11,492 December 7,750 1,549 12,008 Annual 7,746 18,438 142,817 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 17, 2002.