ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 12/2003 Released: 06/24/2003 by Nebraska Agricultural Statistics Service P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ USDA,National Ag Statistics Service Nebraska Department of Agriculture William G Hamlin, State Statistician Merlyn Carlson, Director ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. William G. Hamlin State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2003 Wheat Production Forecast Up 49% From Last Year Nebraska's 2003 winter wheat crop, based on June 1 conditions, is forecast at 72.6 million bushels, up 49 percent from last year's crop and 16 percent above last month's forecast. Average yield is forecast at 44 bushels per acre, up 12 bushels from last year's yield and 6 bushels above last month. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.65 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In the major wheat growing areas, as of June 1, topsoil moisture supplies were rated mostly adequate and subsoil moisture supplies rated adequate to short. Crop condition rated mostly good with development normal at 69 percent headed. Disease and insect pressure have been light. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2001-2003 Classification Nebraska United States 2001 2002 2003 1/ 2001 2002 2003 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harv. for Grain 2/ Percent 91.0 92.0 94.0 76.0 71.0 82.0 For harvest 1,000 Ac. 1,600 1,520 1,650 31,295 29,651 36,447 Yield Bushels 37.0 32.0 44.0 43.5 38.5 44.6 Production 1,000 Bu. 59,200 48,640 72,600 1,361,479 1,142,802 1,626,376 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 11, 2003. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2002-2003 State Acres Harvested Yield Production 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2003 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 1,650 2,200 22.0 33.0 36,300 72,600 Kansas 8,100 9,700 33.0 44.0 267,300 426,800 Missouri 760 780 45.0 51.0 34,200 39,780 Montana 750 1,700 28.0 38.0 21,000 64,600 Nebraska 1,520 1,650 32.0 44.0 48,640 72,600 Oklahoma 3,500 4,700 28.0 36.0 98,000 169,200 South Dakota 625 1,440 29.0 40.0 18,125 57,600 Texas 2,700 3,700 29.0 29.0 78,300 107,300 Washington 1,750 1,800 59.0 62.0 103,250 111,600 United States 29,651 36,447 38.5 44.6 1,142,802 1,626,376 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecasted June 1, 2003. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, June 11, 2003. U.S. Grains Supply and Disappearance Outlook --------:-----------------------------:---------------------------:---------------- : : Market Year : : : Supply : Disappearance 1/ : : :-----------------------------:---------------------------: Market : Crop : Begin- :---Domestic--: : Year : Average Year : Pro- ning Im- Total: Primary : Ex- Total : Ending : Market : duction stocks ports : Use 2 Other: ports : Stocks : Price ---------------------------------------------------------------------------:------- Million Bushels :$/bu. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------:------- Corn 2001/02 9,507 1,899 10 11,416 5,877 2,054 1,889 9,820 1,596 1.97 2002/03 9,008 1,596 15 10,619 5,650 2,285 1,600 9,535 1,084 2.25-2.35 2003/04 3/ 10,060 1,084 10 11,154 5,600 2,375 1,850 9,825 1,329 1.90-2.30 Soybeans 2001/02 2,891 248 2 3,141 1,700 171 1,063 2,933 208 4.38 2002/03 2,730 208 4 2,942 1,610 182 1,010 2,802 140 5.50 2003/04 3/ 2,855 140 4 2,999 1,620 169 960 2,749 250 4.45-5.45 Wheat 2001/02 1,957 876 108 2,941 926 276 961 2,164 777 2.78 2002/03 1,616 777 78 2,472 935 209 860 2,004 468 3.56 2003/04 3/ 2,176 468 100 2,744 930 260 950 2,140 604 2.90-3.50 Sorghum 2001/02 515 42 0 556 210 45 241 495 61 1.94 2002/03 370 61 0 431 160 45 180 385 46 2.30-2.40 2003/04 3/ 553 46 0 599 225 55 250 530 69 1.65-2.05 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 11, 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2002-2003 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ Month 2003 as % 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 of 2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 102 February 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 102 March 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 101 April 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 101 May 7,769 7,786 1,678 1,669 13,039 12,992 100 June 7,782 1,587 12,348 July 7,781 1,578 12,281 August 7,785 1,570 12,223 September 7,781 1,497 11,648 October 7,789 1,539 11,991 November 7,792 1,496 11,657 December 7,801 1,575 12,290 Annual 7,773 18,858 146,590 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, June 17, 2003. Cattle On Feed Nebraska Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent Nebraska feedlots, with capacities of 1,000 or more head, contained 1.93 million cattle on feed on June 1. The inventory was down 6 percent from last year and 8 percent below June 1, 2001. Placements during May totaled 360,000 head, up 3 percent from last year but 4 percent below 2001. Fed cattle marketings for the month of May totaled 500,000 head, up 12 percent from last year but 4 percent below May two years ago. Other disappearance during May totaled 10,000 head compared with 15,000 head last year and 15,000 head during May 2001. U.S. Cattle on Feed Down 4 Percent Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.53 million head on June 1, 2003. The inventory was 4 percent below June 1, 2002 and 6 percent below June 1, 2001. Placements in feedlots during May totaled 2.30 million, 1 percent above 2002 but 3 percent below 2001. Marketings of fed cattle during May totaled 2.23 million, 3 percent above 2002 and 1 percent above 2001. Other disappearance totaled 65,000 during May, 16 percent below 2002 and 36 percent below 2001. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2002-2003 : June 1 : May : May : May Other : Number on Feed 1/ : Placements : Marketings : Disappearance 2/ ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 2003/: 2003/: 2003/: 2003/ STATE : 2002 2003 2002 : 2002 2003 2002 : 2002 2003 2002 : 2002 2003 2002 ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent:1,000 Head Percent :1,000 Head Percent : 1,000 Head Percent ---------------:---------------------:-------------------:-------------------:---------------------- Arizona 299 266 89 32 38 119 36 39 108 1 2 200 California 485 485 100 72 83 115 63 66 105 4 2 50 Colorado 1,090 990 91 210 200 95 190 200 105 10 10 100 Idaho 310 260 84 64 53 83 68 67 99 1 1 100 Iowa 375 340 91 46 48 104 55 65 118 1 3 300 Kansas 2,270 2,270 100 520 550 106 495 530 107 25 20 80 Nebraska 2,060 1,930 94 350 360 103 445 500 112 15 10 67 New Mexico 96 110 115 18 30 167 17 20 118 2 1 50 Oklahoma 340 360 106 75 98 131 73 67 92 2 1 50 So. Dakota 205 198 97 26 29 112 34 44 129 2 2 100 Texas 2,870 2,880 100 760 730 96 580 520 90 10 10 100 Washington 200 160 80 41 30 73 55 39 71 1 1 100 Other States 370 285 77 53 48 91 60 71 118 3 2 67 United States 10,970 10,534 96 2,267 2,297 101 2,171 2,228 103 77 65 84 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed June 20, 2003. Crop Condition, Selected States, as of June 23, 2003 Corn: Crop Condition Soybean: Crop Condition --------------------------------- ------------------------------- State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- CO 0 2 8 41 49 AR 2 10 28 46 14 IL 1 4 20 58 17 IL 2 6 27 56 9 IN 2 8 32 47 11 IN 2 8 33 49 8 IA 0 3 16 58 23 IA 1 3 16 61 19 KS 1 3 29 59 8 KS 0 1 27 67 5 KY 3 10 31 38 18 KY 3 5 32 51 9 MI 2 7 31 52 8 LA 2 13 49 35 1 MN 0 2 17 65 16 MI 1 5 25 63 6 MO 1 5 21 57 16 MN 0 2 19 66 13 NE 0 1 16 57 26 MS 1 7 24 53 15 NC 2 10 28 56 4 MO 1 7 31 52 9 ND 0 1 12 65 22 NE 0 1 16 64 19 OH 3 12 33 41 11 NC 0 4 34 59 3 PA 5 15 39 33 8 ND 1 2 11 58 28 SD 0 2 16 65 17 OH 3 10 36 43 8 TN 5 7 21 55 12 SD 1 1 19 65 14 TX 14 22 26 32 6 TN 0 5 24 58 13 WI 1 3 19 61 16 WI 1 3 16 68 12 18 Sts. 1 5 21 56 17 18 Sts. 1 5 24 58 12 Prev Wk 1 5 23 56 15 Prev Wk 1 5 26 57 11 Prev Yr 2 8 28 49 13 Prev Yr 1 7 30 52 10 ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Winter Wheat: Crop Condition Sorghum: Crop Condition --------------------------------- ------------------------------- State VP P F G EX State VP P F G EX Percent Percent ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- AR 4 14 31 43 8 AR 1 6 32 54 7 CA 0 5 25 55 15 CO 1 3 27 53 16 CO 5 11 23 45 16 IL 0 22 49 28 1 ID 0 3 9 67 21 KS 0 2 30 64 4 IL 11 19 33 30 7 LA 0 3 29 62 6 IN 5 9 21 47 18 MO 1 6 40 48 5 KS 5 11 27 39 18 NE 0 1 26 64 9 MI 0 3 16 59 22 NM 4 8 70 18 0 MO 1 8 26 47 18 OK 0 1 25 72 2 MT 2 7 20 52 19 SD 1 4 25 65 5 NE 3 11 26 46 14 TX 6 15 31 42 6 NC 2 9 38 50 1 11 Sts. 2 7 31 55 5 OH 1 3 21 52 23 Prev Wk 1 6 35 53 5 OK 5 9 22 43 21 Prev Yr 5 15 40 37 3 OR 6 23 46 23 2 SD 3 13 25 46 13 TX 25 25 32 15 3 WA 3 8 25 46 18 18 Sts. 8 13 26 38 15 Prev Wk 7 12 28 40 13 Prev Yr 21 20 29 26 4 ------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress, June 23, 2003.