ne-agri-facts NEBRASKA AGRI-FACTS Issue 14/2003 Released: 07/22/2003 by USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service William G Hamlin, State Statistician Dean C Groskurth, Deputy State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P.O Box 81069 Location: 298 Federal Bldg Lincoln, NE 68501 Phone: (402) 437-5541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Dear producers and other data users: Information contained herein is the result of mail, phone and personal interview surveys conducted during the past few weeks. Special recognition and appreciation are extended to all producers and agribusinesses who provided data making these reports possible. William G. Hamlin State Statistician ------------------------------------------------------------------------ July 2003 Wheat and Oat Production Forecast Based on July 1 conditions, Nebraska's 2003 winter wheat crop is forecast at 79.9 million bushels, up 64 percent from last year's crop, 10 percent above last month's forecast, and highest since 1999. Average yield is forecast at 47 bushels per acre, up 15 bushels from last year's yield, 3 bushels above last month, and second highest of record behind 1999 at 48 bushels. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 1.70 million acres, 180,000 acres more than last year and the highest since 1999. Wheat harvest started late and did not begin until the first week of July, about a week to ten days behind normal. Oat production is forecast at 4.4 million bushels, up 87 percent from last year's drought reduced crop.. Acreage for harvest, at 65,000 acres, is up 10,000 acres from 2002. Yield is forecast at 68 bushels per acre, up 25 bushels from the previous year and the highest since 1997. Winter Wheat and Oats: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Nebraska, and United States, 2001-2003 Crop Nebraska United States Unit 2001 2002 20031 2001 2002 2003 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Winter Wheat Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 91.4 92.1 94.4 76.2 71.0 82.3 For harvest 1,000 Ac 1,600 1,520 1,700 31,295 29,651 36,491 Yield Bushels 37.0 32.0 47.0 43.5 38.5 47.0 Production 1,000 Bu 59,200 48,640 79,900 1,361,479 1,142,802 1,715,912 Oats Harvested for Grain 2/ Percent 38.7 31.4 33.3 43.3 41.9 48.9 For harvest 1,000 Ac 60 55 65 1,905 2,098 2,286 Yield Bushels 61.0 43.0 68.0 61.4 56.8 64.7 Production 1,000 Bu 3,660 2,365 4,420 117,024 119,132 147,895 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. 2/ Percent of seeded acreage. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 11, 2003. Winter Wheat: Area Harvested, Yield and Production, Selected States and United States, 2002-2003 State Acres Harvested Yield Production 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2003 1/ 2002 2003 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 Acres Bushels 1,000 Bushels Colorado 1,650 2,200 22.0 35.0 36,300 77,000 Kansas 8,100 9,700 33.0 49.0 267,300 475,300 Missouri 760 780 45.0 58.0 34,200 45,240 Montana 750 1,750 28.0 37.0 21,000 64,750 Nebraska 1,520 1,700 32.0 47.0 48,640 79,900 Oklahoma 3,500 4,700 28.0 41.0 98,000 192,700 South Dakota 625 1,520 29.0 41.0 18,125 62,320 Texas 2,700 3,600 29.0 29.0 78,300 104,400 Washington 1,750 1,800 59.0 64.0 103,250 115,200 United States 29,651 36,491 38.5 47.0 1,142,802 1,715,912 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecasted July 1, 2003. Source: USDA NASS Crop Production, July 11, 2003. U.S. GRAINS SUPPLY AND DISAPPEARANCE OUTLOOK ---------SUPPLY--------- MARKET YEAR DISAPPEARANCE 1/ Market CROP Begin- ---Domestic-- Year Average YEAR Pro- ning Im- Total Primary Ex- Ending Market duction stocks ports Use 2/ Other ports Total Stocks* Price -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million bushels $/bu. Corn 2001/02 9,507 1,899 10 11,416 5,861 2,054 1,905 9,820 1,596 1.97 2002/03 9,008 1,596 15 10,619 5,700 2,310 1,600 9,610 1,009 2.25-2.35 2003/04 3/ 10,270 1,009 10 11,289 5,600 2,500 1,850 9,950 1,339 1.90-2.30 Soybeans 2001/02 2,891 248 2 3,141 1,700 170 1,064 2,933 208 4.38 2002/03 2,730 208 4 2,942 1,610 147 1,030 2,787 155 5.50 2003/04 3/ 2,885 155 4 3,044 1,625 169 990 2,784 260 4.35-5.35 Wheat 2001/02 1,957 876 108 2,941 926 275 962 2,164 777 2.78 2002/03 1,616 777 78 2,472 935 185 860 1,980 492 3.56 2003/04 3/ 2,311 492 100 2,903 930 260 975 2,165 738 2.80-3.40 Sorghum 2001/02 515 42 0 556 208 45 242 495 61 1.94 2002/03 370 61 0 431 165 45 180 390 41 2.30-2.40 2003/04 3/ 551 41 0 592 225 55 250 530 62 1.65-2.05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Marketing year begins: Corn, Sorghum & Soybeans, September 1; Wheat, June 1. 2/ Primary uses: Corn & Sorghum = Feed; Soybeans = Crushing; Wheat = Food. 3/ Projection. Source: USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 11, 2003. Cattle on Feed: Number on Feed, Placements, Marketings and Other Disappearance, 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots, by Month, State, and United States, 2002-2003 July 1 June June June Other STATE Number on Feed 1/ Placements Marketings Disappearance 2/ 2003/ 2003/ 2003/ 2003/ 2002 2003 2002 2002 2003 2002 2002 2003 2002 2002 2003 2002 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % 1,000 Head % Arizona 291 266 91 24 34 142 31 32 103 1 2 200 California 485 490 101 67 73 109 62 63 102 5 5 100 Colorado 1,030 890 86 155 135 87 210 230 110 5 5 100 Idaho 300 255 85 49 63 129 58 67 116 1 1 100 Iowa 350 310 89 36 34 94 60 63 105 1 1 100 Kansas 2,160 2,160 100 380 415 109 480 510 106 10 15 150 Nebraska 1,890 1,690 89 295 270 92 460 500 109 5 10 200 New Mexico 101 115 114 23 21 91 16 13 81 2 3 150 Oklahoma 325 350 108 53 52 98 67 59 88 1 3 300 So. Dakota 175 167 95 18 27 150 47 55 117 1 3 300 Texas 2,850 2,820 99 465 470 101 470 520 111 15 10 67 Washington 180 160 89 28 39 139 47 38 81 1 1 100 Other States 350 250 71 51 49 96 68 82 121 3 2 67 United States 10,487 9,923 95 1,644 1,682 102 2,076 2,232 108 51 61 120 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Cattle and calves on feed are animals for slaughter market being fed a ration of grain or other concentrates and are expected to produce a carcass that will grade select or better. 2/ Includes death losses, movement from feedlots to pastures and shipments to other feedlots for further feeding. Source: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, July 18, 2003. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop, Nebraska and United States, July 1, 2001-2003 Class Nebraska United States 2001 2002 2003 2003/2002 2001 2002 2003 2003/2002 1,000 head Percent 1,000 head Percent ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cattle and calves 7,250 7,050 6,600 94 105,800 105,100 103,900 99 Cows and heifers that have calved 2,100 2,030 1,950 96 43,000 42,900 42,700 100 Beef cows 2,029 1,963 1,886 96 33,900 33,750 33,600 100 Milk cows 71 67 64 96 9,100 9,150 9,100 99 Heifers 500 pounds and over 1/ 16,400 16,200 15,900 98 For beef cow replacement 1/ 4,600 4,600 4,600 100 For milk cow replacement 1/ 3,600 3,700 3,600 97 Other heifers 1/ 8,200 7,900 7,700 97 Steers 500 pounds and over 1/ 14,600 14,500 14,200 98 Bulls 500 pounds and over 1/ 2,100 2,100 2,100 100 Calves under 500 pounds 1/ 29,700 29,400 29,000 99 Calf Crop 2/ 1,820 1,820 1,760 97 38,280 38,193 38,000 99 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ State totals not published. 2/ 2003 calf crop preliminary. Source: USDA NASS Cattle, July 18, 2003. Lamb Crop and Market Sheep and Lambs: Inventory by Region and United States, July 1, 2003 1/ Lambs Lambs -------Market Lambs-------- Market All Regions Born Expected Total Breeding Under 65to 85to Over Sheep Sheep Through After Lamb Ewes 1+ 65 84 105 105 Market and and June 30 3/ June 30 4/ Crop Jan. 1 lbs. lbs. lbs. lbs. Total Sheep Lambs Lambs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------1,000 Head--------------------------------------------- Region 1 560 200 760 759 150 155 130 55 490 10 500 1,330 Region 2 630 120 750 820 415 130 35 15 595 15 610 1,740 Region 3 1,300 20 1,320 1,178 830 165 80 110 1,185 15 1,200 2,600 Region 4 630 50 680 489 255 135 95 55 540 10 550 1,220 Region 5 560 60 620 543 195 75 35 15 320 10 330 910 United States 3,680 450 4,130 3,789 1,845 660 375 250 3,130 60 3,190 7,800 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Lamb crop is lambs born in the Native States and lambs docked or brandedin the Western States. 2/ States included in regions as follows: 1 - AZ, CA, ID, NV, OR, & WA; 2 - NM & TX; 3 - CO, MT, SD, UT, & WY; 4 - IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, & OK; 5 - all other states. 3/ Lambs born alive between January 1, through June 30, 2003. 4 Lambs expected to be born July through December 2003. Source: USDA NASS Sheep, July 18, 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, Nebraska, 20 States and United States, 2002-2003 Item and Quarter Nebraska 20 States United States 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head Milk Cows 1/ January-March 68 66 7,746 7,809 9,112 9,154 April-June 67 65 7,770 7,784 9,149 9,114 Milk Production 2/ January-March 299 297 36,538 37,105 42,397 42,939 April-June 298 293 37,962 37,961 44,015 43,862 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 17, 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States , 2002-2003 1/ Milk Cows 2/ Milk per Cow 3/ Milk Production 3/ 2003/ Month 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Pounds Million pounds Percent January 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 102 February 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 102 March 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 101 April 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 101 May 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 100 June 7,782 7,772 1,587 1,587 12,348 12,333 100 July 7,781 1,578 12,281 August 7,785 1,570 12,223 September 7,781 1,497 11,648 October 7,789 1,539 11,991 November 7,792 1,496 11,657 December 7,801 1,575 12,290 Annual 7,773 18,858 146,590 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 2003 revised. 2/Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Source: USDA NASS Milk Production, July 17, 2003.